When Oscar voting started last week, we asked you to imagine yourselves as Academy members, with Oscar ballots in hand, and cast your own choices for who you’d want to see win at the 96th Academy Awards on March 10th. Over 1700 of you voted in the short period from when voting started on February 22nd and ran until yesterday at 8 pm ET. We used preferential balloting for Best Picture, and all other categories were done using a plural voting system.
In the last four years we’ve conducted this experiment with the community, your personal preferences have matched with the eventual Academy Award winners this many times…
2019: 15/24
2020: 16/23
2021: 15/23
2022: 16/23
Will any of these translate on Oscar night? Please take a look at the Next Best Picture team’s latest predictions here and look out for our winners, which will be revealed later this week.
And the (imaginary) Oscar goes to…
Best Picture
1. Oppenheimer
2. Past Lives
3. Poor Things
4. The Zone of Interest
5. Killers of the Flower Moon
6. Anatomy of a Fall
7. The Holdovers
8. Barbie
9. American Fiction
10. Maestro
Best Director
Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest (RUNNER-UP)
Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things
Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer (WINNER)
Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon
Justine Triet – Anatomy of a Fall
Best Actress
Annette Bening – Nyad
Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon (RUNNER-UP)
Sandra Hüller – Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan – Maestro
Emma Stone – Poor Things (WINNER)
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper – Maestro
Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers (RUNNER-UP)
Colman Domingo – Rustin
Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer (WINNER)
Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction
Best Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer (RUNNER-UP)
Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple
America Ferrera – Barbie
Jodie Foster – Nyad
Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers (WINNER)
Best Supporting Actor
Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction
Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer (WINNER)
Ryan Gosling – Barbie (RUNNER-UP)
Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things
Best Adapted Screenplay
American Fiction
Barbie (RUNNER-UP)
Oppenheimer (WINNER)
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Best Original Screenplay
Anatomy of a Fall (WINNER)
The Holdovers
Maestro
May December
Past Lives (RUNNER-UP)
Best Animated Feature
The Boy and the Heron (RUNNER-UP)
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (WINNER)
Best Documentary Feature
Bobi Wine: The People’s President
The Eternal Memory
Four Daughters (RUNNER-UP)
To Kill A Tiger
20 Days in Mariupol (WINNER)
Best International Feature Film
Io Capitano
Perfect Days
Society of the Snow (RUNNER-UP)
The Teachers’ Lounge
The Zone of Interest (WINNER)
Best Cinematography
El Conde
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer (WINNER)
Poor Things (RUNNER-UP)
Best Costume Design
Barbie (RUNNER-UP)
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things (WINNER)
Best Film Editing
Anatomy of a Fall (RUNNER-UP)
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer (WINNER)
Poor Things
Best Make-Up & Hairstyling
Golda
Maestro (RUNNER-UP)
Oppenheimer
Poor Things (WINNER)
Society of the Snow
Best Production Design
Barbie (RUNNER-UP)
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things (WINNER)
Best Original Score
American Fiction
Killers of the Flower Moon
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Oppenheimer (WINNER)
Poor Things (RUNNER-UP)
Best Original Song
American Symphony — “It Never Went Away”
Barbie — “I’m Just Ken” (RUNNER-UP)
Barbie — “What Was I Made For?” (WINNER)
Flamin’ Hot — “The Fire Inside”
Killers of the Flower Moon — “Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People)”
Best Sound
The Creator
Maestro
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning
Oppenheimer (RUNNER-UP)
The Zone of Interest (WINNER)
Best Visual Effects
The Creator (RUNNER-UP)
Godzilla Minus One (WINNER)
Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 3
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning
Napoleon
Best Animated Short Film
Letter to a Pig (WINNER)
Ninety-Five Senses
Our Uniform
Pachyderm
War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko (RUNNER-UP)
Best Documentary Short Film
The ABCs of Book Banning (RUNNER-UP)
The Barber of Little Rock
Island In Between
The Last Repair Shop
Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó (WINNER)
Live Action Short Film
The After
Invincible
Knight Of Fortune
Red, White And Blue (RUNNER-UP)
The Wonderful Story Of Henry Sugar (WINNER)
WINNER TALLY
Oppenheimer – 8
Poor Things – 4
The Zone of Interest – 2
20 Days in Mariupol – 1
Anatomy of a Fall – 1
Barbie – 1
Godzilla Minus One – 1
The Holdovers – 1
Letter to a Pig – 1
Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó – 1
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse – 1
The Wonderful Story Of Henry Sugar – 1
A few quick things to note…
- “Oppenheimer” was the clear favorite in Best Picture from the beginning. It always had the most no. 1 votes, and inevitably garnered more than 50% of the no. 1 votes in the 6th round of voting on the preferential ballot.
- The highest vote getters overall were Ludwig Göransson for Best Original Score (75.3% of the total vote) and Da’Vine Joy Randolph for Best Supporting Actress (71.4% of the total vote).
- The closest race overall was Best Actress with Emma Stone barely prevailing with only 8 votes. It wasn’t just a two person race though as Sandra Hüller came in third by only a difference of 84 votes compared to Gladstone.
- The closest above-the-line race, other than Best Actress, was Best Adapted Screenplay where “Oppenheimer” won by 58 votes. It was the most hotly contested category with all nominees receiving an almost equal number of votes. Another close race was Best Animated Feature where the difference between “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” and “The Boy and the Heron” was only 86 votes.
- Two closes below-the-line races were between “Poor Things” and “Barbie” as Best Production Design had a difference between the two of them of 68 votes while Best Costume Design had a difference of 77 votes. However, “Barbie” had the closest race overall against itself in Best Original Song with a small difference of only 53 votes.
- “The Wonderful Story Of Henry Sugar” received the most votes overall in the short categories with 68.7% of the total vote. However, the closest race came in Best Documentary Short where “Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó” just barely beat out “The ABCs of Book Banning” by 24 votes making it the second closest race overall behind Best Actress.
What do you think of the winners? Do you think any of these will translate to the actual Oscar winners on March 10th? Please let us know your thoughts on our Twitter account and be sure to listen to our final Oscar predictions podcast episode coming this Sunday. Please click here for more important upcoming dates this awards season and here for the most recent tally of awards season winners for the current year.
