Trying to figure out how the political world will impact the Academy Awards can sometimes be as messy and futile as trying to predict the actual Presidential election. After all, the Academy’s nomination process and the eventual amount of votes for nominees are all hidden behind closed doors. It’s hard to say for certain which of the nominated features struck more of a chord than others unless they win something. Still, various Best Picture winners have reflected facets of real-world circumstances throughout history. “Moonlight” winning right after the first Donald Trump inauguration felt like a middle finger towards an administration co-led by Mike Pence. Meanwhile, “No Country for Old Men” could be seen as crystallizing the bleakness gripping America in Bush’s final years as president. What could this year’s various Oscar heavyweights reflect politically? What zeitgeist will the ultimate winner encapsulate if it becomes the next Best Picture Oscar winner?
Currently, it’s starting to feel like this year’s Best Picture Oscar race could shape up to be another David vs. Goliath scenario between a massive blockbuster and a tiny indie. Following in the footsteps of “Avatar” vs. “The Hurt Locker” and “The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King” vs. “Lost in Translation,” this year’s Best Picture Oscar race could come down to Sean Baker’s tiny indie, Cannes Award-winning hit “Anora” vs. Jon M. Chu’s popular first half adaptation of the global phenomenon “Wicked.” Both titles would certainly hold much political weight in the wake of a second Trump administration. After all, “Anora” richly humanizes sex workers, a community that will be stigmatized and severely threatened by fixtures of Trump’s new agenda like Project 2025.
Meanwhile, “Wicked” is a story about a woman discovering that a white man who occupies the most powerful position in the land has “no real power” while the rest of society villifies her for her “otherness.” It’s the kind of triumphant yarn that could function as a rebuke to an administration proudly boasting of its inhumane attitude towards women and marginalized genders. Interestingly, looking through this lens, the endings of “Wicked” and “Anora” (two quality films in their own right) provide very different reflections of life under capitalism. “Wicked” ends on a note of triumphant rebellion, where Elphaba declares, “Nobody, in all of Oz, no wizard there ever is or was, is ever going to bring me down.” “Anora” concludes on an unforgettably bleak note, reflecting how joy and human connections are ultimately destined to be fleeting under capitalism. We are all scrambling for just a moment of bonding with somebody else in this hellscape.
If the Best Picture race really does come down to these two movies, the victor could (emphasis on “could”) suggest the general attitude of Oscar voters toward the future of America. Are voters ready to fight and “defy gravity?” Or are they conscious of the realities of brutalities for working-class people?
“Anora” and “Wicked” aren’t the only movies garnering lots of Oscar buzz this year, though. “Conclave,” for instance, would make for an interesting Best Picture Oscar winner in this political context, given it’s about trying to choose a new leader and all the political compromises within. Its ending, ironically, might be a tad too optimistic, though, in these current confines. “Dune: Part Two,” meanwhile, depicts how even the most “heroic” leaders can become brutal, oppressive monsters weaponizing a culture’s religion toward their own goals for revenge and power, which might be the sci-fi gut punch Oscar voters gravitate towards right now. Speaking of big blockbuster epics, “Gladiator II’s” rage against the status quo and bringing about seismic change to powerful institutions could also strike a relevant chord with Academy voters.
Then there are the quieter movies that would make interesting statements if they won Best Picture. “Sing Sing,” for instance, is an intimate portrait of prisoners reaffirming their humanity through the arts. In an election season emphasizing solely billionaires and super-PACs, a feature film like “Sing Sing” delicately explores everyday people and could be a perfect rebuke to America’s political standards and provide a feel-good movie that provides hope for people during such dark times. Perhaps Academy voters will still be so riddled with anguish over the continued rise of authoritarianism that “A Real Pain’s” depiction of coping with internal torment feels tragically relevant. Meanwhile, RaMell Ross’s masterpiece “Nickel Boys” depicts how trauma and historical horrors aren’t just confined to the past. They reverberate endlessly throughout subsequent decades. There’s an urgently important message worth remembering today in Ross’s unique adaptation of Colson Whitehead’s Pulitzer Prize-winning novel, given the historical parallels between things like Trump’s deeply racist Madison Square Garden rally and a 1939 Neo-Nazi rally at the same location. “Nickel Boys” is obviously a tremendous artistic and creative accomplishment on its own merits; it doesn’t need political relevance to register as a worthy Best Picture Oscar winner. Its groundbreaking and incredible camerawork alone does that. However, that real-world parallel could give it an extra jolt with Oscar voters if it scores a Best Picture nomination.
Then there’s something like Brady Corbet’s “The Brutalist,” a monumental feature film at nearly three and a half hours in length, shot for under $10 million, exploring the experiences of a Holocaust survivor immigrating to America. The Academy loves an acclaimed epic, and a story about an immigrant’s plight could be extra potent right now, given how much the upcoming Trump administration has promised to make life difficult for those living in this country, illegally or not. Historical dramas like Steve McQueen’s “Blitz” and “September 5” could also use their period piece turmoil to register as “important” and “relevant” to Oscar voters. Then, there are potential foreign-language Best Picture nominees who could be pertinent to the modern political landscape on a global scale. “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” is, like many films from director Mohammad Rasoulof, critical of Iranian society. “All We Imagine As Light,” meanwhile, hails from filmmaker Payal Kapadia, an artist who has been endlessly critical of India’s Prime Minister, Narendra Modi.
Truth be told, most major Best Picture contenders this year seem poised to comment on the modern political landscape save for the occasional film, such as the upcoming “A Complete Unknown,” which appears to be a standard music biopic from afar. Even the incredibly divisive “Emilia Pérez” might be seen by some Academy voters as a ripe chance to strike a blow for trans rights in the face of a transphobic presidential administration (though nominating a film from a trans artist like Jane Schoenbrun for “I Saw The TV Glow” would be a more effective rebuke, but that’s a conversation for another time). Meanwhile, Robert Eggers’s “Nosferatu” could be interpreted as an allegory for existing under and rebelling against the seemingly unstoppable and seductive political evils of all stripes.
In a fraught landscape, we all turn to art to process the unthinkable. The Academy’s voting members have undoubtedly done the same in the past. This year won’t be different, with an impending reinstatement of Donald Trump to the seat of U.S. President likely forever casting some kind of shadow over the next Best Picture Oscar winner. Clearly, these various award season heavyweights could reflect not just the political zeitgeist but also the attitude of Oscar voters. Are they hopeful? Are they broken down? Angry? Invigorated? Sad? It’s impossible to know for certain now, but maybe this year’s eventual Best Picture winner can function as tea leaves offering some insight into their souls.
What do you think will be nominated and win Best Picture? Do you feel the left-leaning Academy will make a statement with their pick for Best Picture this year? If so, what do you think that statement will be? Please let us know in the comments below or on Next Best Picture’s X account, and be sure to check out Next Best Picture’s latest Oscar predictions here.
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