Are we underestimating five-time Oscar nominee Yorgos Lanthimos’s “Bugonia” at the 98th Oscars? The next few weeks of major precursors — namely the PGA/SAG award nominations and BAFTA Longlists — will determine what the industry thinks of Lanthimos’s surreal tragicomedy. Driven by towering performances and a peculiar screenplay, “Bugonia” follows extreme opposing viewpoints into a labyrinth of alternate realities. It’s a dialogue-driven piece where the protagonists — a high-powered female executive (Emma Stone) and a paranoid pair of conspiracy theorists (Jesse Plemons and Aidan Delbis) — aren’t actually listening to one another. The story, adapted from Jang Joon-hwan’s 2003 film “Save the Green Planet!,” evolves into otherworldly territory while keeping a grounded socioeconomic commentary at its core. It’s a wildly entertaining depiction of how failed communication, along with people isolating themselves in echo chambers, ultimately destroys humanity. And it’s Lanthimos’s most contemporary film yet, which may or may not be the Academy’s cup of tea.
The bizarre storytelling of “Bugonia” shouldn’t be a tough sell; the Academy has gone for far wackier films in the past, and Lanthimos himself is now considered an Oscar darling. But without the fantastical steampunk elements of “Poor Things” or the period drama courtship of “The Favourite,” there’s a world where “Bugonia” follows the path of “The Lobster” (another contemporary sci-fi Lanthimos film), which received a lone screenplay nomination (shared between Lanthimos and Efthimis Filippou). There’s also a world where two-time Oscar winner Emma Stone and Oscar nominee Jesse Plemons shake things up in the lead acting categories, and help carry “Bugonia” across the finish line to a Best Picture nomination.
Since its world premiere at the 2025 Venice Film Festival and its subsequent October theatrical release, the “Bugonia” buzz has fallen a little quiet. However, the awards recognition has been quietly consistent. “Bugonia” received Best Picture nominations at CCA and AFI, along with Best Comedy/Musical nominations at the Astra Awards and the Golden Globes. While it missed the Oscar shortlist for Best Casting, other notable misses (“Jay Kelly” and “Train Dreams”) have leveled the Best Picture playing field more. It’s an early callout, given that we’re still learning the full scope of Best Casting criteria, but there is something to be said for the majority of shortlisted films being major Best Picture contenders.
The worlds of Oz and Pandora are also still in the conversation. “Wicked: For Good” has a clear advantage as a stronger across-the-board contender due to its many potential craft nominations. It led the Oscar shortlists with eight category mentions; it also made the top ten lists at NBR, AFI, and CCA, following in the footsteps of “Wicked” last year. Meanwhile, “Avatar: Fire and Ash” showed up as expected on the Oscar shortlists for Best Visual Effects, Best Sound, Best Original Song, and Best Original Score. The film also placed in the top ten mentions at NBR and AFI; 2022’s “The Way of Water” followed this similar trajectory and ultimately made the Academy’s Best Picture lineup, though there are some hiccups. Critics’ overall responses to “Avatar: Fire and Ash” are slightly lower than those to the second installment and “Avatar: Fire and Ash” is the first in the saga to not receive Best Picture nominations from the CCA and Golden Globes. Still, audience reactions are on par, and James Cameron just got one of his biggest headlines yet as “Avatar” is now the highest-grossing film trilogy of all time.
Without box office legs, “Bugonia” would need another boost of momentum and performance in the span of a few weeks. The film will garner some visibility at the Golden Globes, where it’s nominated in the Musical/Comedy categories for Best Motion Picture, Best Actor, and Best Actress. The film could also have a second life now that it’s streaming on Peacock, and might fill several blind spots ahead of crucial awards voting periods. But at this moment, the biggest indicator of “Bugonia’s” Oscar chances will be a PGA nomination and the BAFTA Longlists. While we’ve certainly had cases of films showing up overseas and not translating into Oscar nominations, the BAFTAs and Oscars are quite aligned on Lanthimos. He is a 6-time BAFTA nominee, and won Outstanding British Film for “The Favourite,” a film that both the BAFTAs and Oscars recognized heavily. “The Favourite” received 7 wins out of 12 nominations at BAFTA, and 1 win out of 10 nominations at the Oscars. “Poor Things” had a wildly stronger crossover — 5 BAFTA wins and 4 Oscar wins, both out of 11 nominations.
Will BAFTA go hard for “Bugonia” across the board? Or could it be that they respond to period/fantasy Lanthimos more than contemporary-set Lanthimos? In either of these scenarios, “Bugonia” can still come out on top as a strong contender in Best Adapted Screenplay, in addition to Best Actress (depending on how SAG plays out, as they announce nominations two days prior to the BAFTA Longlists). Best Adapted Screenplay is among the more consistent categories “Bugonia” has shown up in, with nominations at CCA and the Astra Awards. The USC Scripter nominations skipped over “Bugonia” and gave us a wildcard, nominating “Peter Hujar’s Day” due to Will Tracy’s adaptation not being eligible since its a film remake, rather than an adaptation of another written work. Outside of clear locks in the Best Adapted Screenplay category such as “One Battle After Another,” “Hamnet,” “Frankenstein,” and likely “Train Dreams” (which could repeat “Sing Sing’s” Oscar scorecard of Best Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay, and Best Original Song), “Bugonia” is on the bubble for that fifth and final slot.
Then there’s “No Other Choice,” one of this year’s Neon five contenders in Best International Feature. Much like “Bugonia,” “No Other Choice” has appeared consistently across screenplay precursors including CCA and the Astra Awards, though the WGA strike controversy around Park Chan-wook may impact the film’s chances here. Additionally, the underperformance of an early category contender (“Wake Up Dead Man”) has left space for “Bugonia” to gain momentum. Will Tracy’s dialogue-heavy “Bugonia” script explores timely themes with a bold perspective and a dark sense of humor, which feels right up the Academy’s alley.
The competitiveness in Best Actor and Best Actress helps to keep Stone and Plemons part of the conversation. Both have enough industry pull to maintain visibility for “Bugonia,” and both deliver complex performances that speak to our times. Michelle Fuller (Stone) walks a fine line between real and surreal, selling the illusion of humanity through a highly trained CEO’s corporate language. Teddy Gatz (Plemons) is a grief-stricken, raw nerve of a character who becomes obsessed with exposing Michelle as an alien. The two work wonders together; awards-wise, they’re not a package deal. Stone is strong enough, on name alone, to receive the film’s sole acting nomination. Plemons could be the wildcard who isn’t widely predicted in the lead up, but gets a last-minute push if both BAFTA and SAG nominate him.
We also have some of the crafts categories to look at. “Bugonia” made the Oscar shortlists in Best Cinematography (Robbie Ryan) and Best Score (Jerskin Fendrix). Ryan is a two-time Oscar nominee (for “Poor Things” and “The Favourite”), and Fendrix received his first Oscar nomination for “Poor Things.” “Bugonia” is tracking low on momentum in cinematography, but the score category will have a handful of contenders vying for that fifth slot (assuming “Hamnet” and “Frankenstein” are safe alongside our locks, “Sinners” and “One Battle After Another”). “Marty Supreme” is starting to surge at the right time now that it’s in theaters, and “F1” is a solid crafts contender scored by veteran Hans Zimmer. “Bugonia” has the edge of a nomination in Outstanding Original Score for a Studio Film at the Society Of Composers and Lyricists (SCL), which overlap strongly with the Academy. All of this year’s SCL film score nominees ended up appearing on the Oscar shortlist.
With a small handful of Best Picture spots open, and the acting categories still in flux, does “Bugonia” make sense as a lone screenplay nominee? We can expect one every year lately, whether it’s in Original (“September 5”) or Adapted (“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”). If “Bugonia” does become our lone nominee, Stone might become the acting contender who shows up everywhere and ultimately misses at the Oscars. Then again, this sentiment could apply to Amanda Seyfried for “The Testament of Ann Lee.” Seyfried and Stone have the same Best Actress nomination haul at the following precursors: CCA, Astra Awards (Comedy/Musical), and Golden Globes (Comedy/Musical). Seyfried is a double Globe nominee this year, also recognized in the Best Actress Limited or Anthology Series category for “Long Bright River.” But “The Testament of Ann Lee” completely blanking on the Oscar shortlists casts some doubt on her chances as she looks to be the film’s only possible nomination and doesn’t have the same critical support as Rose Byrne does for “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You,” as she’s looking to do the same thing.
At this point, Best Adapted Screenplay feels like the most likely category for “Bugonia” to land with the Academy. The film won’t be win-competitive at the Golden Globes, where other Best Picture contenders such as “The Secret Agent” can surge, especially if Wagner Moura wins Best Actor Drama. Similarly, if Ethan Hawke wins Best Actor Comedy/Musical for “Blue Moon,” director Richard Linklater could find a path into Best Picture (especially with Sony Pictures Classics behind his film). Additionally, there doesn’t seem to be a hugely concentrated push on “Bugonia,” at least not to the extent of people getting their heads shaved at a screening. Plus, Focus Features has “Hamnet” as their top priority. As we await SAG, BAFTA, PGA, and DGA nominations, “Bugonia” remains on the bubble, and that might be the best place for it right now, considering there’s still time to regain buzz with Oscar voting around the corner.
So. what do you think? What are you predicting for “Bugonia’s” Oscar chances? Have you seen the film yet? If so, what did you think? Please let us know your thoughts on our X account. Click here for more upcoming awards season dates, here for the most recent tally of awards season winners, here for our precursor tracker, and here for our current Oscar predictions.
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