Although the 2023 and 2024 Oscar seasons were very different, one outcome united them both – overdue directors taking a victory lap. While “Oppenheimer’s” Christopher Nolan and “Anora’s” Sean Baker took rather different routes in their careers and Oscar campaigns, they both became the story of their respective seasons and swept their way to Oscar wins decades in the making for each of them.
As such, any “overdue” director or icon that’s never broken through with the Academy before will be under an extra watchful eye in the 2025 season. It may be unlikely that such a director headlines and sweeps the Oscars for a third straight year, and there’s a very strong chance that anyone who might isn’t on the radar right now – much like Baker and “Anora” at this time last year.
But on the off-chance history repeats itself, these are the directors who look like the strongest bets to rewrite their own history – on paper, anyway.
Paul Thomas Anderson – Untitled movie with Leonardo DiCaprio, Sean Penn, Teyana Taylor, and Regina Hall
This is the example everyone is pointing at right now, much like every other time Anderson has made a movie in the last 10-20 years. Nonetheless, it is just too easy, if not way too easy.
Like Nolan with “Oppenheimer,” Anderson is a beloved filmmaker taking a big swing with a mid-late summer movie that is far from the typical summer movie, both thematically and perhaps politically. Like Baker, Anderson is a decades-long icon of independent cinema, although his latest film has a far bigger budget than “Anora” – and all his other past classics – by a very wide margin. Yet unlike both Nolan and Baker, Anderson has far more Oscar nominations over the decades as a writer, director, and producer, and also has far more Oscar losses.
If Nolan could ride the “It’s his time” narrative to a grand scale with “Oppenheimer,” and Baker could use it to win the most ever individual Oscars for one movie, it won’t take much for pundits to say 2025 is Anderson’s time now. Then again, with an early-mid August release date, a reported $115 million budget, Warner Bros having better luck at the nomination phase than the winning phase these days, and David Zaslav’s increasing inability – whether by incompetence or intentional neglect – to guide expensive auteur-driven movies, there is a lot more working against Anderson on this one than just his past Oscar defeats.
Wes Anderson – “The Phoenician Scheme”
The other overdue Anderson returning this year is Wes, although he technically has an Oscar now with his Best Live Action Short win for “The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar.” However, when it comes to full-length movies, Anderson hasn’t been noticed by the Academy since “The Grand Budapest Hotel” in 2014. None of his films since have crossed over beyond his usual fanbase, and there are low expectations that “The Phoenician Scheme” will change that at its likely Cannes premiere before an early June-wide release.
Nevertheless, if “The Phoenician Scheme” does at least get hailed as Anderson’s best film since “The Grand Budapest Hotel” or even matches the hype of his earlier beloved films, his loudest and most loyal fans will surely push all year for him to finally get his due – in a major category this time.
Both Safdies – Benny Safdie for “The Smashing Machine” and Josh Safdie for “Marty Supreme”
The Safdie brothers don’t have the long resume of a Nolan, Baker, or the Andersons. Yet between “Good Time” and “Uncut Gems,” many will argue the Academy owes them – and if they could do it for a film like “Anora” and a director like Baker, there’s no reason they couldn’t do it for at least one of the Safdies next.
Their first solo films have a lot of hype around them for many other reasons, as “Marty Supreme” has Josh Safdie helming what may be A24’s most expensive film ever, and “The Smashing Machine” has Benny Safdie helming what may be Dwayne Johnson’s biggest stretch as an actor ever. Though between that and “Marty Supreme” headlining the now supposedly overdue Timothee Chalamet, among others, both Safdie brothers won’t really be Nolan and Baker-like headliners if their films do take off with the Academy this time.
If one or both Safdies are recognized by a far different voting body than in 2019, they will still only be supporting players to Chalamet and/or Johnson’s own narratives. Even so, if both brothers are in the mix and both have their films face off with each other, that will garner enough headlines on its own – far more so than if they had been recognized together for only one movie.
Mike Flanagan – “The Life of Chuck”
Flanagan is a more prominent name on the TV circuit than the movie one, at least for the moment. Despite having helmed films like “Doctor Sleep,” his various horrifying and heartbreaking Netflix miniseries have built up his brand on streaming television, though his adaptation of Stephen King’s “The Life of Chuck” seemed poised to change that last season with a surprise TIFF People’s Choice win. Instead, that breakthrough for wider audiences was postponed to this summer and perhaps this season.
Given the past Oscar nominations and wins from recent TIFF winners, “The Life of Chuck” would seem a no-brainer contender on that alone. Yet its risky early summer release date and review scores that were hardly unanimous raves out of TIFF make it an even longer shot this season than it would have been last season. But on the off chance it is a sleeper hit – especially under the guidance of defending Oscar season champion Neon – then Flanagan could be poised for the kind of Oscar season breakthrough he still hasn’t gotten during Emmy season.
Luca Guadagnino – “After the Hunt”
The more that Guadagnino has his films entirely ignored by the Academy – as he did twice last season alone with “Challengers” and “Queer” – the more his loudest fans start to question if the Academy “has it in” for him. Even when “Call Me By Your Name” broke through in 2017, it was more on the strength of Chalamet and overdue, eventual Oscar-winning writer James Ivory. Yet Guadagnino’s individual snub for that film is still the closest he’s ever gotten to a nomination.
Still, Guadagnino’s army of fans and critics are gearing up for one more charge this fall. This time, they hope the star power of Julia Roberts, Andrew Garfield, and rising star Ayo Edebiri will put him over after the combined power of Zendaya, Daniel Craig, Josh O’Connor, and Mike Faist couldn’t do so last year. But perhaps if it is Roberts’ time to have a comeback with the Academy, and if it is Edebiri’s time to cross over from Emmy season to Oscar season, Guadganino can ride those coattails further than he rode those from eight years ago.
Edward Berger – “The Ballad of a Small Player”
It was a little hard to claim Berger was “overdue” last season for “Conclave,” after having only one Best Picture nominee and one Best Director snub under his belt for “All Quiet on the Western Front” in 2022. But now that Berger has two straight movies that at least finished in the Oscars top three after he wasn’t nominated for either one of them, he can make the argument the third time should really be the charm.
Despite that recent success, it’s hard to argue Berger’s at the point where he needs “career achievement” level recognition like Nolan, Baker, Anderson, or even Guadagnino. Given that he wasn’t generally cited as the major reason for the success of “Conclave” and that his brutal flashiness for “All Quiet on the Western Front” didn’t get him nominated in 2022, he still has an uphill battle to get respect from more than just Best Director voters.
Whether Netflix and Colin Farrell can get Berger over next time with “The Ballad of a Small Player” is yet to be seen. Nonetheless, if it has anywhere close to the Best Picture hopes of a “Conclave” or “All Quiet on the Western Front,” it might become too hard or too weird to snub him yet again anyway.
Ari Aster – “Eddington”
Thanks to Baker, every notable indie director who’s made movies too weird, untraditional, or divisive for the old Academy will have their next films hyped up as the next “Anora,” no matter how much weirder, more untraditional or divisive they are. Chief among them may well be Aster, despite how his past cult hits like “Hereditary” and “Midsommar” were ignored and how “Beau is Afraid” was too polarizing even for Aster’s base.
“Eddington” has a likely Cannes premiere and all-stars like Joaquin Phoenix, Emma Stone, Pedro Pascal, Austin Butler, and more to launch Aster into the mix. But if it does get raves on the level of “Hereditary” and “Midsommar,” that would only be half the battle. In any case, there might be so many films and directors fighting to be “the next ‘Anora’” out of Cannes and festival season that they all cancel out anyway.
Lynne Ramsey – “Die, My Love”
One of those other options can be Ramsey, who certainly fits the bill of a Baker-like indie director from films like “We Need To Talk About Kevin” and “You Were Never Really Here.” Her new film also has a possible Cannes premiere and her biggest star power to date, headlined by Jennifer Lawrence, Robert Pattinson, and LaKeith Stanfield. And while the premise of a “mother struggling to maintain her sanity as she battles with psychosis” may be more like a typical Ramsey film than a typical Academy film, Baker and “Anora” made sure something like that won’t be seen as automatically disqualifying for a while.
Regardless, there are probably many reasons why someone like Ramsey would have a harder path than someone like Baker. First and foremost, “Die, My Love” would surely need to surpass the raves of a “We Need To Talk About Kevin” or “You Were Never Really Here” to merely start having this conversation. Yet something like Lawrence getting her biggest raves since her early-mid 2010s heyday can help to get the ball rolling.
Park Chan-wook – “No Other Choice”
It isn’t just Nolan and Baker who are recent examples of “overdue” directors taking over Oscar season, as Bong Joon Ho also did so in a more miraculous fashion with “Parasite” in 2019. Just as he had years of cult overseas hits and a growing American fanbase before “Parasite” put him on another level, Park Chan-wook has been nearing that kind of crossover breakthrough himself – although “Decision to Leave” didn’t quite get him there a few years ago, and his HBO miniseries “The Sympathizer” was largely overlooked last year too.
Still, after the last few years of international contenders like “Anatomy of a Fall,” “Emilia Perez,” “I’m Still Here,” and “The Zone of Interest,” any foreign breakout can catch fire well beyond Best International Feature with this new Academy. If Park Chan-wook has that kind of potential with “No Other Choice,” those who are just discovering him and have pushed him for years might unite to make him the next Joon Ho, Jacques Audiard, or Jonathan Glazer, for starters.
Yet maybe 2025 won’t turn into an “It’s their time” kind of year for a headlining director like 2024, 2023, and 2019 became. Perhaps the big winner next time will be a relative newcomer in every sense, like the Daniels or Chloe Zhao in their years, or maybe the next Best Picture won’t be an auteur-driven movie at all, much like “Green Book,” “CODA,” or “Spotlight.” Or perhaps it will be time for a past winner to be crowned again instead, like Zhao, James Cameron, or Guillermo del Toro.
Since no one saw Baker coming in March 2024, surely we’re not fully seeing whoever’s coming in March 2025 anyway – whatever their Oscars track record or lack thereof may be.
Who is your early predicted winner for Best Director for the 98th Academy Awards? Please let us know in the comments section below and on Next Best Picture’s X account.
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