As tragic fires blaze throughout Los Angeles, the Screen Actors Guild pushed forward, releasing their nominees for the 31st Screen Actors Guild Awards. It’s tough to celebrate the nominees amidst the apocalyptic scenes unfolding in the city at the moment, but the show rolls on. Next Best Picture’s heart goes out to the affected areas of the city we love, and hopes for safety swiftly.
One word defines these SAG Film Award nominees: chaotic. There are phenomenal surprises and plenty of disappointments. It’s a tough day for “Sing Sing” fans, while “Wicked” fans rejoice in their abundance of nominations. While last weekend’s Golden Globes seemed to clarify many races for wins, these SAG nominations make the race for nominations all the more confusing. Let’s break down the SAG Film Award nominees category by category and try to make sense of the race thus far.
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A CAST
This year’s Best Picture race has been in flux all season long, with precious little clarity as to who might actually take home the Oscar. These SAG nominations don’t actually do much to clarify the Best Picture race. Frontrunners “Anora,” “Conclave,” “Emilia Pérez,” and “Wicked” all scored nominations in Outstanding Performance By A Cast. Historically, this has been a key nomination for the future Best Picture winner, yet in recent years, We’ve seen three Best Picture winners miss nominations here. That’s a glimmer of hope for “The Brutalist,” the recent Golden Globe Best Picture winner, who missed a nomination in this category and scored only one today: Best Actor for Adrien Brody. Of these frontrunners, only “Anora” and “Wicked” scored every nomination they hoped for (and more), though “Conclave” and “Emilia Pérez” came out reasonably unscathed. Essentially, Best Picture is still up in the air.
“A Complete Unknown” joined these frontrunners in Ensemble, slightly overperforming with four nominations total. While it’s unlikely to become a true contender for Best Picture, it’s a strong sign of support for James Mangold’s film. On the other hand, a long-hoped-for “CODA-like” comeback for “Sing Sing” failed to materialize today, only scoring a lone nomination for Colman Domingo.
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS
After missing the BAFTA longlist and losing the Golden Globe, Angelina Jolie’s race took a massive hit last week. Now, potentially the final nail in the coffin: Jolie missed a SAG nomination. This is a potentially detrimental miss, but Jolie is in an almost identical position to Kristen Stewart in “Spencer.” Likewise, Stewart missed SAG and BAFTA nominations (though Stewart did make the BAFTA longlist), yet scored Golden Globe and Critics Choice nominations. While today is a poor sign for her campaign, I’m inclined to lean toward an Oscar nomination in the same vein as Stewart.
The actual nominees were pretty unsurprising. Globe winner Demi Moore continued her spectacular run for “The Substance,” scoring a nomination alongside other frontrunners Mikey Madison and Karla SofÃa Gascón. Cynthia Erivo joined them, adding to an unbelievable SAG total for “Wicked.” Lastly, Pamela Anderson also received her first-ever SAG nomination alongside co-star Jamie Lee Curtis, who was nominated as a Supporting Actress. Anderson has been floating around that final spot in Best Actress for most of the season. With the somewhat surprising nomination for Curtis, did the guild simply love “The Last Showgirl” more than most, or are both actresses on their way to nominations? It’s tough to say.
Globe winner Fernanda Torres was left out today, though that’s not much of a surprise. Missing an Oscar nomination after winning the Globe for Drama Actress would be truly unprecedented. So if Torres is in, who does she kick out? Same question for Jolie. Anderson seems like the weakest of the bunch, but her narrative is powerful. Could it be Erivo, even though “Wicked” seems to have performed incredibly well with the actors? This is a tough call with too many great performances.
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR
The biggest surprise among this year’s Lead Actor nominees is that there were no surprises. The consensus is that five Oscar contenders all scored nominations here. Adrien Brody, Timothée Chalamet, Ralph Fiennes, and Colman Domingo seem perfectly safe, while most prognosticators thought the fifth slot could throw us for a loop. Would it be Sebastian Stan for “The Apprentice?” Would it be Hugh Grant for “Heretic?” Instead, the person most are predicting for the fifth spot at the Oscars also nabbed the fifth spot here: Daniel Craig for “Queer.”
The lack of surprises here is actually kind of confusing, given how shocking all the other categories were this year. Some of the other categories may only line up with two out of five nominees at the Oscars, but will Best Actor just go five-for-five? It did last year, though there were fewer surprises overall among last year’s SAG nominees. So, who would it be if anyone were to kick out Craig for that last spot? It’s unlikely to be Grant if he couldn’t get a SAG nomination. The same goes for any other hail maries like Kingsley Ben-Adir or Glen Powell. The only two candidates that could do it would be Sebastian Stan or Jesse Eisenberg. The latter’s film is coasting to a Supporting Actor win, an Original Screenplay nomination, and possibly a Picture nomination. So Eisenberg could sneak in if the Academy really loves his film. And while a SAG nomination would’ve been a great sign, it’s not crazy to imagine Stan getting lots of love after his Golden Globe speech.
Even so, the safest bet is predicting these five will receive the Oscar nominations. Craig’s never been nominated at SAG or the Oscar, so the support could be there; I just wish the film had been better received to make me feel more confident.
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Only two of the six Golden Globe nominees and three of the Critics Choice nominees appeared in this year’s SAG Awards for Best Supporting Actress. Zoe Saldaña, fresh off a Golden Globe win, made it in safely alongside her closest competitor, Ariana Grande. The only Critics Choice nominee, Danielle Deadwyler, appeared here as well. Rounding out the category was Jamie Lee Curtis for “The Last Showgirl” and Monica Barbaro for “A Complete Unknown.” With “A Complete Unknown” landing in Outstanding Ensemble, Barbaro’s nomination here makes sense, even if it’s surprising.
Multiple Best Picture frontrunners missed potential nominations here. “The Brutalist” shockingly missed both Supporting categories at SAG today. Along with the Ensemble miss, it’s a tough showing of guild support for the Golden Globe Best Picture. Some had predicted that Felicity Jones would miss, so it’s not the biggest shock, but it still hurts the film. Similarly, Isabella Rossellini has been widely predicted for an Oscar nomination, though she missed her. “Conclave” scored an Ensemble nomination but only nabbed a single individual nomination: Best Actor for Ralph Fiennes. Additionally, while Saldaña got in for “Emilia Pérez,” Selena Gomez was left off the nominations at SAG.
Perhaps one of the more surprising omissions was Margaret Qualley for “The Substance.” Early on in the season, it seemed the best hopes for the outrageous French film would be Demi Moore and nothing else. Now, Qualley herself has picked up a handful of nominations, including from Golden Globe and Critics Choice. Typically, SAG has shown more love for horror films in the past, so it’s a bit surprising to see Qualley miss it here.
So, who makes it to the Oscar? Clearly Saldaña and Grande are in. AMPAS will likely still love “The Brutalist” all around, so I expect Jones to be safe there. I wish I felt more confident predicting Deadwyler, but “The Piano Lesson” has received so little support and campaigning that I think I must leave her off. Instead, I’m putting Qualley in on the surging support for “The Substance” and Rossellini in on the strength of “Conclave.” But I’m incredibly tempted to kick someone out for Curtis, giving her an afterglow nomination that shouldn’t be a shock at this point.
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR
“Wicked” had the best possible morning it could’ve expected, landing in every single category except Best Actor. Almost no one had predicted that Jonathan Bailey would suddenly appear, yet he’s nominated for Outstanding Supporting Actor. This is a shocking spoiler to the campaign that’s been entirely focused on Grande and Erivo. Nevertheless, here he is. Now, don’t get your hopes up, “Wicked” fans. It seems incredibly hard to believe this would repeat at the Oscars. The Academy will likely show plenty of love to “Wicked,” a film that could still conceivably win Best Picture, but a nomination for Bailey seems unlikely. Still, this is a phenomenal morning for the blockbuster musical.
Frontrunner Kieran Culkin continues to coast to a likely Oscar win, landing a nomination here. Strangely, the man who appeared to be his closest competitor, Guy Pearce, was left off entirely. The same goes for Denzel Washington, another contender who, at one point in time, was seen as the frontrunner. Instead, Ensemble nominees “Anora” and “A Complete Unknown” scored nominations here for Yura Borisov and Edward Norton, respectively. The final spot went to Jeremy Strong for his role in “The Apprentice.” It’s not a shocking nomination by any means, but a bit surprising that he made it here without a fellow nomination for Sebastian Stan.
Sadly, Clarence Maclin was missing for his role in “Sing Sing.” Clearly, A24 fumbled this campaign while focusing on more significant priorities, like “The Brutalist.” There’s still hope that the love for the film will propel it to get other nominations, but SAG was the last gasp of hope for the film, and it underperformed.
So Culkin, Borisov, and Norton seem to be the safest bets in this category at the moment. Bailey is unlikely to happen at the Oscars, so let’s leave him off for now. So, who gets those last two spots? Strong could happen. He’s been receiving awards attention for years, gathering multiple Emmy nominations alongside a win. There could be enough support to get him in, and this SAG nomination helps. It’s hard to ever write off Denzel Washington. While the movie may have underperformed, Washington consistently received the most praise. It’s tough to see him not making the final lineup. And what about Maclin? Is he entirely done? I wouldn’t blame anyone for thinking so, and perhaps my blinders are on, but Maclin still makes sense to me as a nominee here. He made the BAFTA longlist, something that wasn’t really expected. I think there’s more support for “Sing Sing” than for “The Apprentice” overall. I give Maclin the edge but don’t feel great about it.
OUTSTANDING STUNT ENSEMBLE
“Wicked” continued its dominance of the SAG Awards, scoring a nomination for Outstanding Stunt Ensemble. It’s the only non-action film of the bunch. “Deadpool & Wolverine,” “Dune: Part Two,” “The Fall Guy,” and “Gladiator II” all rounded out the category without a surprise in the bunch. A nomination here for “Emilia Pérez” would’ve been a good bump of support, but it’s not damaging. What’s more disappointing is the snub for “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga.” That film can’t get arrested this season.
All in all, this was a wild set of nominations. We’re nine days away from the Oscar nominations, and voting is now open. While some winners are becoming evident, so much about this Oscar race remains wide open. More guild nominations are on the way in the coming days, so keep your eyes peeled for even more surprises all along the way.
What was the biggest surprise of the SAG nominations? How does this affect your Oscar predictions? Does this clarify what’s winning Best Picture? Please let us know in the comments below or over on our X account.
