Like many of us, awards season takes a bit of a break around the end of the year. Two of the four major televised precursors – the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice Awards – announced their nominations a few weeks ago, and the other two – the Screen Actors Guild Awards (or SAG Awards) and the British Academy Film Awards (or BAFTAs) – will reveal theirs on January 8th and 15th, respectively. As such, things are currently in limbo (outside of a few regional critics groups’ announcements). Those performers who saw their names listed on both the Golden Globes and Critics Choice nomination lists likely feel tentatively confident that they’ll hear their names called on Oscar nomination morning, although every season has taught us that absolutely nothing is guaranteed. A handful of actors only received recognition from one of those two voting bodies, meaning that they should work a little harder in their current campaigning. And, of course, some performers were passed over by both. However, that doesn’t mean they’re out of the race, especially considering that the SAGs and BAFTAs overlap with the Academy among their voters, whereas the Globes and Critics Choice are more useful for an actor’s general trajectory and buzz than anything else. Let’s look at all four acting categories and see who needs the boost from a SAG and/or BAFTA mention.
There are three to four strong contenders in both supporting categories, followed by a small handful of actors vying for the more uncertain slots. In Supporting Actress, Ariana Grande (“Wicked“), Margaret Qualley (“The Substance“), Isabella Rossellini (“Conclave“), and Zoe Saldaña (“Emilia Pérez“) were all nominated by both the Globes and CCAs. The one-off nominees for only the Globes are Selena Gomez (“Emilia Pérez“) and Felicity Jones (“The Brutalist“), while Danielle Deadwyler (“The Piano Lesson“) and Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (“Nickel Boys“) were only recognized by the CCAs. Of the double-dippers, Grande, Rossellini, and Saldaña are very likely to remain strong contenders all season, and there’s a good chance that one of those three ladies will win the Oscar (and yes, it’s curious that Grande and Saldaña are practically co-leads, whereas Rossellini has fewer than 10 minutes of screentime).
Qualley is also firmly in the race, but her film is the least aligned with the Academy’s traditional taste. It wouldn’t be shocking if “The Substance“ only ended up with a single seemingly guaranteed nomination for Best Makeup & Hairstyling. Jones was undoubtedly the most surprising of all the CCA “snubs,“ with her film in a strong position overall. Likely, this miss will just be a blip in her awards chances, and while she probably won’t realistically contend for the win, there’s little reason at this moment to think she’ll miss an Oscar nomination. She and Ellis-Taylor are the only previous Oscar nominees of all eight of these actresses. If Gomez can ride the wave of her film’s general adoration, she may be able to slip into that wriggly fifth slot, although it doesn’t help matters that her performance is undoubtedly the most divisive of the three central women of “Emilia Pérez.”
That leaves Deadwyler and Ellis-Taylor. The former is undoubtedly her film’s strongest chance at a nomination, and there’s a strong possibility she’d be the Academy’s only point of recognition for “The Piano Lesson.” Unfortunately, this is a familiar refrain for those who remember her campaign for Best Actress for her extraordinary work in “Till.” She was that film’s only serious chance at a nomination. Similarly, she missed a Golden Globe nomination for “Till” but scored a mention from the CCAs. That year, she also picked up nominations from both SAG and BAFTA and a similar run would likely be required to keep her in contention for “The Piano Lesson.” Ellis-Taylor is a previous Oscar nominee (“King Richard“) in a film that’s in the running for a Best Picture nomination but is far from guaranteed. “Nickel Boys” is in a precarious spot. Given the field of contenders, it’s all but certain that it will score a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination. But otherwise, there’s a chance it could receive as few as one nomination or as many as six (it’s realistically in contention for Picture, Director, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, and Film Editing). It’s one of the best-reviewed films of the year, and luckily, the modern Academy occasionally rescues well-regarded but underappreciated films later in the season, like “Past Lives” and “Women Talking.”
Over in the male supporting category, five men were lucky enough to receive both Globes and CCAs attention: Yura Borisov (“Anora“), Kieran Culkin (“A Real Pain“), Edward Norton (“A Complete Unknown“), Guy Pearce (“The Brutalist“), and Denzel Washington (“Gladiator II“). So that’s our Oscar lineup, right? Not so fast. Annoyingly, the Globes and CCAs nominate six actors in each category, reducing exclusivity and making awards predictors’ jobs more difficult. Of these five, Norton slipped into the race most recently, but the strong box office performance and decent notices for the three-time nominee’s film mean he’s a viable contender. Washington is, of course, one of the most well-regarded actors in the world, with two Oscar wins from a total of nine nominations. Could “Gladiator II“ bring his nomination count up to double digits? Notably, it would be his first acting nomination outside the lead category since his Supporting win for 1989’s “Glory.“ However, his film is fading fast from the awards conversation, and although it may still pick up a few craft nominations, he’s the film’s only realistic chance at an above-the-line nod. That’s never a great place to be, although Washington is in the tier of actors along with Meryl Streep and Daniel Day-Lewis, who stand a chance at getting nominated for every single performance they give, regardless of their film’s overall support. For example, just look at his nomination for “Roman J. Israel, Esq.“ And although he’ll almost certainly be skipped by BAFTA voters, who have somehow never given him a single nomination in his illustrious career, it’s hard to imagine him missing a SAG nomination, given the populist bent of that voting body.
Two men showed up at only one of these precursors: Jeremy Strong matched his co-star Sebastian Stan’s Golden Globe nomination for “The Apprentice,“ while Clarence Maclin showed up at CCAs. His film, “Sing Sing,“ was notably not embraced by Globes voters, only receiving a single nomination for leading man Colman Domingo. The inspiring prison drama fared much better at the CCAs, receiving five nominations, including Best Picture. It’s still in the race for a Picture nomination from the Academy, although it’s ostensibly one of four films competing for three nomination slots, along with “Nickel Boys,” “A Real Pain,“ and “The Substance.“ Only time will tell which of these films is excluded (and it may even be more than one!), although whether or not it’s a Best Picture nominee, Maclin has been one of the most consistent points of praise for “Sing Sing“ ever since it premiered over a year ago at the 2023 Toronto International Film Festival. If the film remains strong, it’s only reasonable to assume that love will translate into a nomination for the breakout supporting player. Strong is certainly the most unexpected of these nominees, as his film was previously considered dead after the recent presidential election. And even though the Globes have revived the film’s chances, it’s generally thought of as pretty unlikely that Emmy and Tony-winner Strong will add an Oscar nomination to his quickly growing list of accolades.
And now, the lead categories. Best Actress, as is often the case in recent years, is entirely unpredictable and exciting. Curiously, there are more likely contenders to be found among the Globes nominees in the Musical/Comedy category than in Drama. The Musical/Comedy nominees who also received attention from the CCAs are Cynthia Erivo (“Wicked“), Karla SofÃa Gascón (“Emilia Pérez“), Mikey Madison (“Anora“), and Demi Moore (“The Substance“). Their fellow allegedly hilarious nominees that the CCAs didn’t go for are Amy Adams (“Nightbitch“) and Zendaya (“Challengers“). Adams desperately needs a SAG nomination for her name to stay in the race. If not, her chances are as buried as a dog bone. And while Zendaya is excellent in the entertaining “Challengers,“ she feels like the likeliest sixth place of her category. In addition, despite the Academy’s general affection for dramas, Erivo, Gascón, Madison, and Moore are all considered heavy favorites for Oscar nominations. In fact, of these four nominees, only Madison stars in a true comedy in the traditional sense, albeit one that ends on an emotional, dramatic note.
In the Drama category, only Angelina Jolie (“Maria“) was cited by both televised precursors. The other five Globes nominees are Pamela Anderson (“The Last Showgirl“), Nicole Kidman (“Babygirl“), Tilda Swinton (“The Room Next Door“), Fernanda Torres (“I’m Still Here“), and Kate Winslet (“Lee“). Five of the actresses in this category represent the sole nomination for their respective films (“I’m Still Here“ is nominated for Best Non-English Language Film), which makes it incredibly hard to predict a winner. Bizarrely, Globes voters couldn’t find room for Marianne Jean-Baptiste’s universally praised performance in Mike Leigh’s “Hard Truths.“ Despite winning lead prizes from the prestigious Los Angeles Film Critics Association Awards and New York Film Critics Circle Awards, the British actress scored a nomination from the CCAs but not the Globes. It can be assumed that she’ll receive a BAFTA nomination from that Leigh-loving voting body, but a SAG nomination would help keep her in the running for Oscar attention. Still, it seems more likely that SAG voters may go for a more well-known actress like Kidman or Winslet. After all, Kidman has previously received 10 individual nominations and one win from SAG, plus an additional five nominations as part of an acting ensemble. Winslet’s SAG history also includes 10 individual nominations, three ensemble nominations, and a whopping four individual wins.
In Best Actor, four names have been at the top of every prediction list for several months, even before critics groups started giving out awards this past fall. Adrien Brody (“The Brutalist“), Timothée Chalamet (“A Complete Unknown“), Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing“), and Ralph Fiennes (“Conclave“) can all rest reasonably assured they’ll receive Oscar nods. They’re all previous nominees, all of their films are in the Best Picture race, and they all got attention from the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards. And unless something wildly unpredictable happens in the next month, that leaves only one slot open for the remaining lead actor contenders to fight over. Daniel Craig (“Queer“) and Hugh Grant (“Heretic“) also showed up on both the Globes and CCAs nomination lists, the former in the Globes’ Drama category and the latter in Musical/Comedy. Craig is arguably the most agreed-upon contender for that toss-up fifth slot, although his film’s general awards chances have severely diminished, meaning he’d likely be the sole Oscar nomination for “Queer.“BAFTA may come to his rescue – he received a nomination nearly two decades ago for his James Bond debut in “Casino Royale.” He’s a well-regarded actor who’s generally considered overdue for his first Academy Award nomination, which might be just enough of an advantage to push him over the edge.
Both of Grant’s precursor nominations are somewhat surprising, given that “Heretic“ is a psychological horror film – hardly the type of movie to which awards bodies generally gravitate. But like his fellow Brit Craig, he has yet to receive an Oscar nomination, and voters may be hungry to finally bestow that honor upon him. He also feels like a well-known actor in a populist film who SAG voters occasionally nominate. And that voting body is less scared of horror than most; after all, they nominated Lupita Nyong’o for “Us“ and gave the win to Emily Blunt for “A Quiet Place.“
Grant’s fellow Globe nominees are Jesse Eisenberg (“A Real Pain“), Gabriel LaBelle (“Saturday Night“), Jesse Plemons (“Kinds of Kindness“), Glen Powell (“Hit Man“), and Sebastian Stan (“A Different Man“). LaBelle and Plemons are welcome additions and exactly the types of unexpected nominees that the Globes comedy categories exist to acknowledge. Still, it would be a huge shock if they received any further precursor love this season. But with so many names fighting for a single spot, no one should be counted out when votes may be spread so thin. Eisenberg will almost certainly receive a nomination for Best Original Screenplay for “A Real Pain.“ That, plus the film’s overall strength (his co-star Culkin stands a good chance at winning Best Supporting Actor), may help him out. Powell has had a fantastic couple of years, leading the hits “Anyone But You“ and “Twisters.” There’s a chance that Academy voters may want to reward one of the bigger box office draws of the year.
And finally, Stan finds himself contending for two films, which scored him two Globes nominations in the same year – “A Different Man” in Musical/Comedy and “The Apprentice” in Drama. It’s difficult to determine which film and performance stands the best chance at appealing to Academy voters, which may have the unfortunate effect of splitting his Oscar nomination votes. And although both performances ask him to utilize entirely different skill sets (“A Different Man” is a classic feature-length breakdown, a la Michael Keaton in “Birdman,” while “The Apprentice” sees him pulling the classic Academy-friendly move of impersonating an infamous political figure), in both films, he dons a heavy amount of makeup and gets to show off his versatility as an actor. “The Apprentice” feels like it may be more in the Academy’s wheelhouse, with its biggest hold-up being the fact that after a long, arduous election season that ended in an unfavorable result, voters may not want to spend two hours with Donald Trump, even a less-than-flattering portrait. And, of course, missing CCA for both performances doesn’t help him. Still, Europeans seem far less hesitant to award films that deal with prickly American political subjects, meaning that BAFTA voters may go for “The Apprentice.”
The 2024 awards season is far from over. Things can shift and change; surprise wins and snubs are certain to happen, hearts will be broken, and dreams will come true. Keep an eye out for the upcoming SAG and BAFTA nominations to help get a sense of the continuing state of the race, and remember, “lock” is a dirty word.
Which actors do you think will win at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards? Who are you predicting for the Oscars? Please let us know in the comments below or on Next Best Picture’s X account, and be sure to check out Next Best Picture’s latest Oscar predictions here.
