Recently, “Longlegs” came out of nowhere to score a $22 million opening weekend, a significantly bigger haul than anyone could’ve imagined, and has amassed over $70 million worldwide to date. It is a massive victory for indie distributor NEON, which has never launched such an immediately lucrative wide release before. NEON’s success follows new box office heights reached by A24, Magnolia Pictures, IFC Films, and other indie labels in the last year. A welcome resurgence of smaller-scale faces in the theatrical entertainment scene is emerging. It’s a phenomenon that mirrors how prominent indie studios have become in the Oscar Best Picture race.
Once upon a time, the major studios (which now include Disney, Columbia, Paramount, Universal, Warner Bros., and, until 2019, 20th Century Fox) dominated the Oscar race for Best Picture. In the last 25 years, though, indie studios have continually dominated this field. Much like the major broadcast networks no longer have much of a presence in the most prestigious Emmy categories, independent productions have also superseded major studios among recent Best Picture winners.
Such a declaration may sound peculiar given that Universal’s “Oppenheimer“ is the most recent motion picture to win Best Picture; however, consider that Christopher Nolan’s massively successful film was only the third major studio release since 2006 (following Ben Affleck’s “Argo“ and Peter Farrelly’s “Green Book“) to win Best Picture. Across the last 25 years, only six major studio releases (Ron Howard’s “A Beautiful Mind,“ Clint Eastwood’s “Million Dollar Baby,“ and Martin Scorsese’s “The Departed,“ being the other three) have won the coveted gold statue. Even expanding the definition of “major studio“ to indie studios, specifically those founded as sister companies of big studios (not independent labels like New Line Cinema and Miramax later bought by the big Hollywood studios), doesn’t increase the number by that much. Fox Searchlight has five Best Picture winners, while Focus Features, Sony Pictures Classics, and the former Paramount Vantage have no Best Picture winners to their names despite continually producing nominees for the category.
Meanwhile, DreamWorks SKG has had many Best Picture winners (Sam Mendes’ “American Beauty“ and Ridley Scott’s “Gladiator“), as has Warner Bros. and Universal in the last 25 years. Miramax secured three Best Picture wins over this period. The Weinstein Company and A24 each have two victors, while Apple Original Films, Open Road Films, NEON, Summit Entertainment, and Lionsgate each have one feature among the last 25 Best Picture winners. Rather than emerging from long-standing Hollywood institutions like Paramount Pictures or Walt Disney Pictures, most modern Best Picture winners are emerging from non-major studios.
Granted, it’s no shocker that Apple Original Films, a division of one of the biggest companies in the world, has the money to campaign a movie to Oscar glory successfully. What is actually intriguing is seeing ramshackle operations like Open Road Films and Summit (the latter circa. 2009) beating the odds to secure Best Picture wins. The awards season strategists at these outfits were the underdogs in their respective awards seasons. Even while contending with exorbitantly bigger competitors, indie titles like “Spotlight” and “The Hurt Locker” went all the way to Best Picture glory.
Part of why indies have managed to score more Best Picture recognition in modern times is simply because of the studios’ actions. In the last 25 years, major studios have dwindled their forays into non-tentpole features. Walt Disney Pictures shuttered outfits like Touchstone Pictures and Hollywood Pictures, which once produced large Best Picture contenders. Warner Bros. has been mainly out of the indie cinema game since the late 2000s. With these outfits shrinking their annual slates and focusing on “can’t-miss” tentpoles, a void has been left open. Smaller operations like A24 and NEON have gleefully filled that space with new titles for which Oscar voters fall head over heels in love over.
There’s also the unavoidable truth that major movie studios have often avoided tackling projects with challenging original topics. As early as the late 1970s, George Lucas was openly complaining about Hollywood studios getting infiltrated by folks obsessed with numbers rather than art. That problem has only grown worse in the last few decades. “No Country for Old Men” was never going to resonate with Warner Bros. executives as a surefire winner in any era; however, the extra level of modern artistic hesitancy from major studios has opened the door for titles like “Everything Everywhere All at Once” and “Parasite” to land at indie studios like A24 and NEON. Those labels subsequently reap the Oscar rewards that major studios miss out on.
Considering this historical precedent, it’s worth asking: Will this trend reverse in the near future? If “Oppenheimer” could win Best Picture, then perhaps that would spark a resurgence for the larger studios to win Best Picture. Looking at the current 2024-2025 awards season slate, though, it’s unlikely any major studio awards season contender will go all the way to winning Best Picture. Perhaps Universal’s “Wicked” could do it, but only a handful of musicals have ever won the Oscar, and this is considered the first part of a two-part release. Meanwhile, it’s hard to imagine a sequel like “Gladiator II” taking home the trophy for Paramount Pictures, while Columbia’s awards season is resting on Jason Reitman’s “Saturday Night” and Robert Zemeckis’ “Here,” two filmmakers who had blossoming starts but wilting success with the Academy in recent years.
Of the main studios, Warner Bros. seems to have the slate of 2024 releases most ready for Oscar recognition. Warner Bros. has scored at least one Best Picture nominee at all but one of the last 14 Oscar ceremonies. The studio only got excluded at the 89th Academy Awards in this era, when “Collateral Beauty,” “Live By Night,” and “War Dogs” all failed to take off as awards season contenders. Compare that hot streak to Columbia Pictures only showing up once in the last eight Best Picture races or Paramount Pictures being absent from this category for six years over the same period.
With that hot streak, Warner Bros. should have no trouble getting at least one of its 2024 contenders, “Dune: Part Two” or “Joker: Folie à Deux,” a Best Picture nomination. A win, though, would be tricky. “Dune” and “Joker” will have to overcome the Academy’s reluctance to recognize sequels, something which has only been achieved twice with “The Godfather Part II” (1974) and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” (2003).
Right now, the odds suggest another indie studio title is bound to take home the Best Picture Oscar. Even beyond the sparse line-up of 2024-2025 awards season contenders from studios like Paramount, the odds of the last 25 years suggest somebody beyond the leading Hollywood studios will clinch a win here. DreamWorks SKG, A24, NEON, and others have become the de facto homes for Best Picture winners. Who knows, maybe one of the indie studios riding a resurging box office wave, like IFC Films or Magnolia Pictures, will cap off their lucrative year with an unexpected Best Picture victory. What you think?
Which film are you currently predicting to win Best Picture? Is it a studio or an indie film? Do you think any studio films stand a chance to win Best Picture this year? Which Best Picture contender are you most excited to see? Please let us know in the comments section below or let us know on Next Best Picture’s X account and be sure to check out the Next Best Picture team’s latest Oscar predictions here.
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