The Most “Locked” Categories Of The 98th Academy Awards

With days to go before the 98th Academy Awards, we’re all taking a moment to reassess predictions we may have set weeks or months ago. Even the seeming “locks” we have been predicting for months become more nerve-racking as the ceremony approaches, but some categories aren’t worth the sweat. While some of these can have upsets we don’t see coming, and no win is truly ever 100% certain, these are the categories we feel look like the most locked up for their winners heading into Oscar night.

Best DirectorThis narrative for Paul Thomas Anderson has made him seem like the logical frontrunner for months now, and nearly the entire season, he has gone unchallenged. Calling it a narrative even feels like it undermines the passion people have for him as a filmmaker and for his specific vision for this film. This has been a near-complete sweep all year, and any upset here would be pretty unprecedented and nearly impossible to call. There’s been room for him to lose at Golden Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA, and DGA, yet everyone fell in line, setting up the path for PTA to win his first-ever Best Director award.

Best ActressJesse Buckley’s devastating performance as Agnes Shakespeare in Chloe Zhao’s “Hamnet” was the only sweeper in this year’s four acting categories, winning CCA, GG, BAFTA, and the ACTOR award. Apart from the Comedy/Musical Golden Globe going to Rose Byrne in “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You,” none of the other nominees won any major prizes this season. No last-minute feline contempt or Frankensteinian misadventures will hold back what is one of the easiest categories on Oscar night.

Best Supporting ActorIt is strange to see a performance like Sean Penn in “One Battle After Another” not sweep the early awards, given his ultimate victories at the ACTOR awards and BAFTA. We can all come up with reasons why it took so long for the Penn wins to kick into high gear, but it’d be silly to bet against the performance in the Best Picture frontrunner with both industry awards. People will try to entertain the other nominees until the moment the award is announced, but given the stats, the performance, and the film’s strength, there is no reason to bet against Penn here.

Best Original And Adapted ScreenplayThe Best Original and Adapted Screenplay categories this year make up a pair of winners that are frankly even more locked than Best Director or Best Picture. Mainly cause this year’s top two in both categories, “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners,” are each the absolute favorite in their respective field. “Sinners” has absolutely dominated in Best Original Screenplay this season, even at critics groups and BAFTA, where it was doubted; it has proved all year that it can take this win without even needing Best Picture or Best Director. A similar steamroll has continued with “One Battle After Another” in Best Adapted Screenplay, where, frankly, a challenger hasn’t emerged all season long. It’s nice to know that no matter what way the top two prizes went this season, the year ending with Ryan Coogler and Paul Thomas Anderson, both being Oscar winners, is hard not to be overjoyed with.

Best Animated FeatureOne of the largest sweeps of the year, “Kpop Demon Hunters,” is one of the biggest locks we could have. With it winning nearly everywhere and doing a complete sweep at the Annie Awards, the other four nominees would be lucky to get any votes against such a juggernaut.

Best International Feature FilmWe’re in only the second year of having two Best Picture nominees competing in Best International Feature Film, and for all we know, there are factors to this sort of situation we haven’t fully seen yet. However, when deciding between “Sentimental Value” and “The Secret Agent,” Joachim Trier’s family drama has the clear edge both in precursor run and strength within the Academy. Kleber Mendonça Filho’s film may have won the Golden Globe and the Critics’ Choice Award. Still, the latter would’ve definitely gone to “Sentimental Value,” as it was disqualified due to being a Best Picture nominee with that voting body. With Trier’s film taking BAFTA and over-performing with both a Best Film Editing nomination and all four actors receiving nominations, it seems to have built enough momentum to go all the way here.

Best CinematographyWhat was once one of the few split craft races we were seeing this year, Best Cinematography, has gone in many different directions this season. “Sinners” first dominated the critics’ prizes, but then “Train Dreams” took the first televised award with CCA after being in second place until then. However, then came the remaining sweep for “One Battle After Another,” which first took BAFTA and BSC, then sealed the deal with ASC. While it’s bizarre that the “Sinners” sweep with the critics didn’t translate into an industry win, especially given it was the closest we’ve come to a female winner in this category at the Oscars, clearly, this is another award getting swept up in the “One Battle After Another” love.

Best Film EditingFor a moment following its win at the Critics’ Choice and somewhat unexpected Best Picture nomination, it seemed “F1” could scratch the same high-octane racing itch that this award has gone to many times in this category. However, precursors told us a different story, with “F1” not only losing BAFTA to “One Battle After Another” but also unexpectedly losing the ACE Eddie to “Sinners” in the Drama category. BAFTA, in particular, has given this award to films like “Senna” and “Rush,” so their choice really brought this film’s momentum to a halt. With both BAFTA and ACE and the upper hand in Best Picture, “One Battle After Another” will likely be the one to cross the finish line. With both its lauded action set pieces, its comedic timing, and propulsive pacing for nearly three hours, it’ll make a very worthy winner.

Best Costume Design, Production Design, Costume Design, And Makeup & HairstylingWhether it’s “All Quiet on the Western Front,” “Dune,” or “Poor Things,” we almost always seem to have a tech juggernaut that takes three or four awards, usually very close together during the ceremony. You can expect Guillermo Del Toro’s “Frankenstein” to take up a good fifteen minutes of this year’s telecast, as it takes these three craft awards. All three categories have been clean sweeps across CCA, their corresponding Guild and BAFTA, with no clear challenger to consider, let alone predict. Some have floated possible upsets in any of the three, but it’s not very clear what it would be or where it would happen, so you’d be far better off expecting all three to go the monster’s way, likely.

Best Original ScoreIt seemed, since the day it became a contender, that “Sinners” would at least walk away with a Best Original Score win, and the season since has told us no different. With a dominant lead in the precursors, Ludwig Göransson seems more than set to win his third Oscar in less than a decade. Maybe around the fall, there seemed to be cases for other films, but at this point, it’s one of the safer bets of the night.

Best Original SongUnfortunately for the “Sinners” and “I Lied to You” fans, Best Original Song has been almost impossible to snap out of the spell “Golden” has on current culture. Like Best Animated Feature, “Kpop Demon Hunters” has cleaned up this category, transcending film awards to the Grammys and becoming a global hit that rarely crosses over into this category. While we can manifest the incredible track from one of the year’s top contenders, there’s sadly no reason to predict against the chokehold “Golden” has on this category this year.

Best SoundSince it’s a Best Picture nominee and a virtual sweep in almost every sound category, it seems “F1” is a pretty safe frontrunner. Despite losing the three MPSE categories to “Frankenstein” and “Sinners,” that split seems pretty inconsequential to the haul “F1” received of CCA, CSA, and BAFTA. “Sinners” would’ve needed to win all three awards at MSPE to be a considerable threat, but losing the Foley awards to “Frankenstein” leaves the field split enough for “F1” to likely take this as its lone win on Oscar night. Even for those who don’t like the film or its inclusion in the Best Picture field, its repeating the lone Best Sound win that Joseph Kosinski’s “Top Gun: Maverick” also earned is quite a cute ending to its story this awards season.

Best Visual EffectsIt’s a year with an “Avatar” film, so, as expected, there isn’t much of a race in the Best Visual Effects category. Some wondered whether being a lone nominee could hurt its chances. But then it scored an inexplicable Best Costume Design nomination, securing its place as the visual effects contender to beat in the modern cinematic landscape. This category has been a lock since the film was announced, and nobody’s heart rate should change when it’s announced.

Do you agree that these are the categories one would considered “locked” for Oscar night? If not, tell us which categories you disagree with. Please let us know in the comments section below and on Next Best Picture’s X account, click here here for the most recent tally of awards season winners, here for Next Best Picture’s precursor tracker, and here for their current Oscar predictions.