Believe it or not, we’re currently on a very unusual streak in terms of Best Picture Oscar winners. For the first time in over 70 years, three consecutive Best Picture Oscars have gone to movies released before September. The year’s final four months are typically when Hollywood concentrates on its awards season hopefuls. This portion of the year is when major awards contenders are revealed, and award shows start taking place toward the end of the year. Studios want their titles to get on the radar of these organizations and events. What better way to do that than to ensure their awards-friendly titles are fresh on people’s minds?
“CODA,” “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” and “Oppenheimer” have upended this norm tremendously. “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” in fact, debuted in March 2022, roughly an entire year before it won the Best Picture Oscar. It’s a striking feat devoid of many modern precedents that begs the question: Can it continue? Will we have more of a fourth consecutive Best Picture Oscar winner that came out in the first eight months of the year?
One thing undoubtedly helping these three films – though it’s by no means meant to take away from their awards season accomplishments – is the erratic scheduling of theatrical movies in the last few years. Either COVID-19 surges or the dual 2023 labor strikes have inspired Hollywood to abruptly delay major films from their release dates at the drop of the hat. This has led to the final four months of 2021, 2022, and 2023 to be a tad more vacant than usual. There have still been plenty of Best Picture Oscar nominees released in the typical holiday season windows in the 2020s. However, the abandoned late 2023 launches of “Dune: Part Two” and “The Bikeriders,” along with the postponement of “Creed III” from November 2022 – and countless other recent delays – signal how malleable release plans have become.
Thanks to this fluidity, there have been more opportunities for movies released in the first eight months of the year to score some Oscar gold. Though, repeating that in 2024 could be more difficult. As of right now, the final four months of the year look normal – even by pre-COVID standards – in terms of new awards season hopefuls from Focus Features, A24, NEON, Searchlight Pictures, MUBI, Sony Pictures Classics, and others. It’s unlikely there’ll be a new calamity necessitating the sudden expulsion of high-profile award season hopefuls from the last four months of the year (knock on wood!).
Another reality of the 2024 theatrical landscape? The first six months of 2024 were much more barren than 2022 and 2023, thanks to those dual strikes and Hollywood refusing to give artists livable wages. These strikes, which affected both the production and release of films, led to a significant decrease in the number of movies released in the first half of 2024. While acclaimed titles like “Dune: Part Two” and “Civil War” were still released, there are fewer options for indie releases that could become awards season sensations from the first six months of 2024 compared to the last two years. At this juncture, it seems unlikely that this impressive Best Picture streak will continue for a fourth consecutive year, but it’s also not impossible. The options may be limited compared to 2022 and 2023, but 2024’s first eight months still hold a handful of potential Best Picture contenders.
The most obvious example of a potential Best Picture victory from the year’s first six months is “Dune: Part Two.” Denis Villeneuve’s first “Dune” scored a Best Picture nomination three years ago, and this follow-up was even more critically acclaimed and financially successful than its predecessor. A Best Picture nomination is all but assured, while a win isn’t out of the realm of possibility. Other genre movies such as “The Lord of the Rings” have won the Best Picture Oscar. The only real challenge here is that “Dune: Part Two” doesn’t end the “Dune” saga. The Academy may wait to see if Villeneuve sticks the landing on “Dune: Messiah” before awarding the franchise a Best Picture Oscar, like how “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” was the final film in the trilogy and the only one to win Best Picture.
There’s also “Sing Sing,” Greg Kwandar’s directorial effort starring newly-minted Oscar nominee Colman Domingo (“Rustin“). One of the most acclaimed and moving motion pictures of 2024, “Sing Sing” certainly feels like it has the potential to become this year’s summertime indie that breaks into the Best Picture field. Given its intimate scope, a win could be a long shot, but it’s not impossible. Its studio, A24, was able to bring both “Moonlight” and “Everything Everywhere All at Once” to seemingly impossible Oscar victories. Pulling off that same magic with “Sing Sing” isn’t inconceivable, especially since the Academy recently demonstrated a fondness for Domingo.
There is a bevy of movies from 2024’s earliest months – “Do Not Expect Too Much from the End of the World,” “Hundreds of Beavers,” “Green Border,” “Kneecap,” “The People’s Joker,” and “How to Have Sex,” among others – that should be contenders for Best Picture. These films, each with their unique storytelling and cinematic qualities, have the potential to make a mark in the awards season. However, they’ll inevitably get lost in the shuffle thanks to their smaller scale and distributors (or lack of significant distributors). However, among the more plausible Best Picture contenders from 2024’s first eight months is another summertime indie darling, “Didi.” After making a splash at Sundance and scoring a solid limited release opening weekend, Focus Features could push “Didi” enough to give it a real run for Best Picture.
The final candidate for awards season champion among 2024’s earliest months is “Challengers,” from Oscar-nominated “Call Me by Your Name” filmmaker Luca Guadagnino. Widely acclaimed, particularly for Zendaya’s barn-burner lead performance, “Challengers” will have no trouble sticking around for the entire year, even with another Guadagnino feature (“Queer”) preparing to launch in theaters this fall film festival season. The potential success of “Queer” could influence the reception of “Challengers” and its chances of being nominated for Best Picture. Will the Academy embrace something as horny as “Challengers,” though? Or will they go for “Queer” instead? All of this is up for debate, as the film’s emphasis on sex and younger people could alienate some older voters who are critical for a Best Picture victory, while “Queer” might do the same thing just with Daniel Craig instead. Still, who would have thought “Everything Everywhere All at Once” or “Oppenheimer” would score Best Picture Oscar wins from their early-in-the-year release dates? If the last few years of pre-September Best Picture Oscar victors have taught us anything, it’s that anything is possible.
Do you believe a Best Picture winner will come from the first part of the year before the fall film festivals? If so, which film? Please let us know in the comments below or on Next Best Picture’s X account and be sure to check out Next Best Picture’s latest Oscar predictions here.
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