With less than two weeks left until the 97th Academy Awards, the BAFTA Awards winners were unveiled yesterday, bringing further clarity to the awards race. What remained an extraordinarily unpredictable awards season has suddenly clarified over the last week, with wins for “Anora” at PGA, DGA, WGA, and CCA. BAFTA went in a different direction for Best Film, though “Anora” did pick up a few trophies. Still, there was lots to learn, and lots solidified with these winners. Let’s dive into the most significant learnings from the 78th British Academy Film Awards to see what they tell us about the 2024-2025 Oscar race.
BAFTA HAS FAITH IN “CONCLAVE”
Though the film hasn’t won much stateside thus far, “Conclave” picked up four BAFTA awards: Best Film, Outstanding British Film, Best Adapted Screenplay, and Best Editing. “Conclave” had long been predicted as a film that would be able to build more consensus support in a quite fractured awards race, but that support has seemed to coalesce around “Anora” for the most part, especially after it won at the Producers Guild Awards. A loss for “Anora” here isn’t terribly shocking, especially given that “Conclave” is a British film. While this is an excellent win for Edward Berger’s film, it doesn’t really throw much of a hurdle in “Anora’s” path to a Best Picture win, given how much support it’s received from the Hollywood guilds. However, if it were to win SAG this Sunday, then that would certainly make things more interesting. Especially after “The Brutalist” failed to win Best Picture at CCA and now BAFTA, “Conclave” remains the only realistic challenger to “Anora” in the Best Picture race.
In the Best Adapted Screenplay race, “Conclave” proved today it can beat challengers “Nickel Boys” and “A Complete Unknown.” While “Conclave” wasn’t eligible at WGA, where “Nickel Boys“ won, “Conclave“ has remained the assumed winner in this category for much of the season, especially after also winning at the Critics Choice and Golden Globes. Noreason to doubt it now.
Best Editing is a more interesting race between “Anora“ and “Conclave.“ If “Anora“ sweeps the top categories at the Oscars, Best Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay (and perhaps Best Actress, which we’ll get to later), it’s possible Baker could win on all four of his nominations, becoming the first person since Walt Disney to do so in the same evening and the first ever for the same film. The last two Best Picture winners also took home Best Film Editing, but before that, the last Picture winner to also win Best Film Editing was “Argo“ in 2012. In the previous twenty years, the awards have only gone hand-in-hand seven times. While “Conclave“ might not have as flashy editing as something like last year’s “Oppenheimer,“ betting on “Anora“ to win both Best Picture and Film Editing might not work out so well. It’s a tight race, but “Conclave“ has the edge for now.
MIKEY MADISON IS STILL IN THE FIGHT FOR BEST ACTRESS
“Anora“ may have lost Best Film at BAFTA, but Mikey Madison picked up Best Actress, a much-needed win as voting wraps up for the Academy on February 18th. While Demi Moore has taken home the televised wins for Best Actress thus far, with the Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice, the industry win here proves that Madison is a legitimate contender to win the Oscar. Still, it’s hard to shake off the support (and narrative) that Moore has garnered in this race. It’s reminiscent of the support Brendan Fraser received for his performance in “The Whale.” He also lost at BAFTA, but prevailed at SAG and the Oscars. All eyes are on SAG now. If either Moore or Madison wins there, they’ll also have the Oscar locked up. If someone else prevails, then this race will be one of the harder ones to call on Oscar night.
OTHER ACTING RACES ARE FEELING LOCKED UP
The other acting races held no surprises at BAFTA, with repeating wins for Adrien Brody in Best Actor, Kieran Culkin for Best Supporting Actor, and Zoe Saldaña winning Best Supporting Actress. There’s no real reason to doubt these winners, who have won everywhere so far this season.
What happens if Timothée Chalamet wins at SAG? Is there a chance he could upset Adrien Brody? A win for Chalamet would undoubtedly make this a tighter race, but since 2000, no one has won Best Actor after only winning SAG. The industry support is clearly behind Brody at this point. The same goes for Culkin in Best Supporting Actor. Unlike Brody, there’s not even a clear second place to Culkin.
But what about Saldaña? There’s a chance SAG could be the first place where “Emilia Pérez“ backlash could show an impact as voting closes on the 21st at 3 pm ET. Just two years ago, Jamie Lee Curtis won the Oscar for “Everything Everywhere All At Once” after losing the BAFTA, Golden Globe, and Critics Choice Awards. Could Ariana Grande do the same for “Wicked?” Winning the Oscar after only winning SAG is rare, so it’s unlikely, no matter how much Karla SofÃa Gascón has damaged the awards run of “Emilia Pérez.”
“A REAL PAIN” MAKES PREDICTING BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY A REAL PAIN
In one of the only real surprises at the BAFTAs, Jesse Eisenberg won Best Original Screenplay for “A Real Pain.” Previously, this had been seen as a race between “The Substance,“ which won at Critics Choice, and “Anora,“ which won at WGA (where “The Substance” wasn’t eligible). Now, “A Real Pain“ joins the race. Is this a fluke win, or could Eisenberg legitimately win the Oscar? Well, hold up now. The last film to win a screenplay Oscar without a Best Picture nomination was “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind“ in 2004. With “Anora“ on a nearly unstoppable path toward a Best Picture win, it’s still clearly the frontrunner for Best Original Screenplay. “The Substance“ could also still win in the mold of “Promising Young Woman“ or “Get Out“ as the most “original“ concept of the nominees that won at CCA (but they had other writing major prizes to go along with them in their seasons). “A Real Pain“ winning the BAFTA is incredible, but it is unlikely that it will change the shape of this race…probably.
WALLACE & GROMIT: VENGEANCE MOST SWEET
Is it all that surprising to see “Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl“ take the BAFTA for Best Animated Film? The inventor and his dog are British icons. Even so, the race for the Oscar remains between PGA, CCA, and Annie winner “The Wild Robot“ and Golden Globe winner “Flow.“ Last year, “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse“ won the same haul as “The Wild Robot,“ but lost to the Globe and BAFTA winner “The Boy and the Heron.“ If “Flow“ was going to pull off the same feat, a BAFTA win should’ve come along with it. Without it, there’s no doubt it is a brutal miss for the Latvian film.
The sensible predicting logic stands with “The Wild Robot“ for the Oscar, which has simply garnered more support throughout this awards season. Even so, I can’t shake the feeling that “Flow” isn’t quite dead yet. Winning the first major televised award of the year isn’t anything, and director Gints Zilbalodis has been campaigning very hard, constantly posting to social media about the DIY making of the film, which has garnered the respect of new and veteran filmmakers across the industry. The Academy has been leaning more internationally in recent years, and a win for “Flow“ aligns more with that recent direction. Still, “The Wild Robot“ is undoubtedly in better shape with three Oscar nominations overall, but this has been quite the race.
EMILIA PÉREZ OVERCOMES THE BACKLASH SO FAR
While there’s still an off chance “Emilia Pérez“ backlash lands late in the game, it’s tough to make a case for anything else to win Best International Feature at this point. It won the BAFTA for Best Film Not In The English Language after winning the Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice Award. No film in the history of these three awards overlapping in the same year has won all three and ever gone on to lose the Oscar. While this is the first year in which two films, “Emilia Pérez“ and “I’m Still Here,“ are nominated for both Best Picture and Best International Feature, there’s just little evidence to support predicting “Emilia Pérez“ to lose. Could “I’m Still Here” pull it off? Anything is possible given how much the tide of perception has changed on “Emilia Pérez” in recent weeks, and with “I’m Still Here” having a Best Picture nomination, you know voters are going to watch it. “Emilia Pérez” undoubtedly has the edge, so if you predict “I’m Still Here,” are you simply hopedicting at this point?
Ultimately, BAFTA didn’t have too many surprises up its sleeve. Only a few categories remain in the air as the precursors wrap up. Only a handful of questions may linger by the time SAG ends next Sunday. Still, is this too easy for such a rocky season? Last year showed us that even a fairly steady season can still pack in a few surprises.
What was your biggest surprise among the BAFTA winners? How are you shifting your Oscar predictions? Which category is giving you the biggest headache? Please let us know in the comments below or over on our X account and check out what we thought of the show moments after it ended in our podcast recap here.
