It’s already been a long and abnormally confusing awards season. With very few frontrunners in most races, predictions have been all over the place. So, with the 82nd Golden Globe winners now announced, we have some helpful clarity as we inch closer to the Academy Award nominations on January 17th. Many still question why the Golden Globes would impact the Oscar race at all, given that there’s no voter overlap. The answer is clear: it’s a big event, with tons of Oscar voters in attendance, and presents winners to a global audience. Naturally, it can help push contenders one way or the other. At this year’s Globes, there were plenty of surprises, plenty of busted ballots, and lots to learn about the direction of the race. Let’s dive into the Film winners and see how it could affect the race toward nominations – and wins (you can also listen to our immediate reactions to the winners on the Next Best Picture podcast here).
“THE BRUTALIST” WINS DRAMA PICTURE, DIRECTOR, AND ACTOR
Brady Corbet winning Best Director was one of the few foregone conclusions heading into the Golden Globes, and the Oscar race for Best Director as a whole. He did indeed pull out the win last night, delivering a compelling pre-written speech about shooting on film and honoring his young daughter in the audience. While there was little doubt about who would win the Oscar, he solidified himself even more. On the Best Picture front, the race was far less clear heading into the ceremony. “The Brutalist” beat out “Conclave” for the win in Best Motion Picture, Drama, a much-needed victory to give the film greater momentum for this next leg of the race, especially as it goes wide in theatrical release later this week. Even so, it’s still questionable how well “The Brutalist” will play on a preferential ballot at the Oscars. Will the film’s second half work for a wider voting body, or will something like “Conclave” take advantage of having a broader appeal? Time will tell, but this was a good boost for “The Brutalist,” nevertheless.
Additionally, Adrien Brody picked up a win for his towering performance in “The Brutalist,” his first Golden Globe. While the battle between Brody and Timothée Chalamet for “A Complete Unknown” is still unfinished, this was likely Chalamet’s best shot at a televised win. It seems much more believable that CCA, the BAFTAs, and even SAG would vote for Brody over Chalamet, especially after Brody snags the first win of the season. While the performances and films couldn’t be any more different, 2022 saw Austin Butler defeat Brendan Fraser at the Globes, only for Fraser to win the Oscar in the end. Even if Chalamet had won the Globe, it would’ve been highly comparable to Butler’s win. Now that Brody won, it’s tough to imagine what path Chalamet has to a victory unless SAG and/or CCA have a surprise up their sleeve. The race isn’t over, but this is exactly what Brody needed.
“EMILIA PÉREZ” WINS FOUR GLOBES, INCLUDING MUSICAL/COMEDY PICTURE
Though none of the wins for “Emilia Pérez” were truly surprises, it was a much-needed haul for the Netflix film. It took home wins for Best Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy, Best Foreign Language Film, Best Supporting Actress for Zoe Saldaña, and Best Original Song for “El Mal.” With “The Brutalist” and “Emilia Pérez” winning the two top awards of the evening, there’s undoubtedly some clarity forming around the Best Picture race, though the same questions around the preferential ballot still linger for “Emilia Pérez,” too. With a Best Picture race that feels up in the air, it’s hard not to notice the comparisons to 2021, in which a Netflix film won Best Picture at the Globes, as did a big musical, and then a film entirely overlooked by the Globes ended up winning the Oscar. Could that happen again with a feel-good indie film like “Sing Sing?” Its performance at the SAG nominations will be telling.
While Best Supporting Actress has been a two-horse race between Saldaña and Ariana Grande thus far, Grande’s loss here is tough to ignore. Like Chalamet, it’s tough to see the path for Grande now that she’s lost the Globe. She could certainly still win at CCA but will likely lose at SAG and BAFTA, leaving a pathway to the Oscar win challenging. A sweep for Saldaña feels, and seems, likely. She’s been in the industry for so long and stars in the top three highest-grossing films of all time. It seems logical that her time has come.
In the Best Original Song race, where two “Emilia Pérez” songs have been nominated all season, “El Mal” pulls ahead as the contender to rally behind. Saldaña gives that song a boost as well since it’s her show-stopping number. If any other song were to surprise, it would’ve happened here.
FERNANDA TORRES AND DEMI MOORE STUN IN BEST ACTRESS RACES
Both Best Actress categories contained big surprises at this year’s Golden Globes. In Best Actress, Musical/Comedy, Demi Moore took home a shock win for her performance in “The Substance.” With a film as provocative as “The Substance,” it’s been a bit of a bubble contender all year. It’s been a question all season: will AMPAS go for a horror film like this? Moore’s win here is an incredible boost. While it remains to be seen if she can win the Oscar or not, this at least solidifies her place in the race for a nomination. Mikey Madison and Karla SofÃa Gascón both could’ve benefited from a televised speech, but Moore drove it home with a pitch-perfect speech about her years in this industry and the ways in which she’s been written off. These are the sorts of speeches that win Oscars.
On the Drama side, most had predicted an easy win for Angelina Jolie’s performance in “Maria,” especially as she is the only nominee in the Globes category largely predicted for an Oscar nomination. Instead, Fernanda Torres won for her performance in Brazil’s “I’m Still Here.” It’s a stunning upset for a phenomenal performance. Does this mean she’s guaranteed an Oscar nomination? Not quite. This is still a new Golden Globes organization, so it’s possible that their tastes are just more bent toward international films. Still, it’s tough not to look at history. The voting body may be different, but the effect of a televised win is largely the same.
Only twice in Golden Globes history has a woman won the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Motion Picture Drama and not received an Oscar nomination, and both of those instances have important caveats. In 2008, Kate Winslet won for “Revolutionary Road” but was nominated at the Oscars for “The Reader” instead, so she still ultimately received an Oscar nomination that year. Then, in 1988, the Golden Globes had an absurd three-way tie for Best Actress. That year, Jodie Foster (“The Accused”), Sigourney Weaver (“Gorillas in the Mist”), and Shirley MacLaine (“Madame Sousatzka”) tied for Best Actress. MacLaine did not receive an Oscar nomination, but it’s hard to quantify that when three women won the category that year. No one else has won this category and missed an Oscar nomination. If Torres missed the Oscar nomination, it would be unprecedented.
“ANORA” GOES HOME EMPTY-HANDED
It was a formidable contender in numerous races, from Best Motion Picture, Musical/Comedy, Best Actress – Musical/Comedy, and Best Screenplay, but “Anora” went home empty-handed. It’s like that “Anora” came in second place in many of these categories and is still solidly in the Oscar race but missed out on a much-needed boost.
In Best Actress, Mikey Madison lost to Demi Moore, while Best Screenplay went to “Conclave.” The screenplay loss hurts the most, as “Anora” is currently considered the frontrunner to win Best Original Screenplay at the Oscars. Still, losing to a film that will compete in a separate category at the Oscars helps. The Golden Globes rarely go for adapted screenplays such as “Conclave,” so seeing it win here is interesting. The last adapted screenplays to win at the Globes were “Steve Jobs” in 2015 and “The Social Network” in 2010. Either way, “Conclave” and “Anora” are still the frontrunners in each screenplay category, but Sean Baker missed out on a boost.
SEBASTIAN STAN WINS BEST ACTOR, MUSICAL/COMEDY
One of the most unpredictable categories of the evening was Best Actor – Motion Picture Musical/Comedy. Predictions were all over the map. In the end, Sebastian Stan took home the win for his role in “A Different Man.” How does this affect the Oscar race? It’s tough to say. Jesse Eisenberg winning here would’ve been a nice boost for the film barely hanging on to its Best Picture chances. Hugh Grant winning might’ve solidified his chances at an unexpected Best Actor nomination. But Stan winning for “A Different Man” when he’s arguably closer to a nomination for “The Apprentice” is fascinating. If nothing else, this seems like a good boost for Stan to snag the fifth Best Actor spot for his role as Donald Trump. Many in the industry have understandably shied away from that film, but perhaps seeing a great speech from Stan could help push him over the edge.
FLOW WINS BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
In one of the coolest Golden Globe surprises in recent memory, “Flow” won Best Animated Feature. The Latvian film beat more mainstream contenders “The Wild Robot” and “Inside Out 2.” This is reminiscent of last year when most prognosticators pegged “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” to win the Oscar before “The Boy and the Heron” won the Golden Globe. That shifted the tide in the direction of Miyazaki’s film, which ended up winning the Oscar. Could that happen yet again? That seems tough to believe, but “Flow” winning here is truly remarkable. It’s possible the Academy fully shifted away from Hollywood animation and gives “Flow” the Oscar, but the safe bet is still on “The Wild Robot,” at least for now.
OTHER NOTABLE MOMENTS:
- Kieran Culkin won Best Supporting Actor for his role in “A Real Pain.” Nearly everyone has predicted an unstoppable sweep for Culkin, and there’s no reason to believe otherwise.
- “Challengers” won Best Original Score, besting strong competition from “The Brutalist” and “Conclave.” The safe money is still on either of those films, but this is a good boost for the Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross score, and perhaps all the reason to add it to your predictions for a nomination.
- “Wicked” took home the award for Cinematic and Box Office Achievement. While this award is still in its infancy, at least the film can’t say it went home empty-handed.
The Globes certainly had a lot of surprises in store, but it gives lots of clarity to the race moving forward. Finally, many of these races feel more understandable. Even so, Best Picture feels as unpredictable as ever. The races will continue to tighten up as we get many more nominations this week.
What was your biggest surprise of the evening? How do these winners affect your Oscar predictions? Do you think “The Brutalist” or “Emilia Pérez” are going all the way? Please let us know in the comments below or over on our X account and check out what we thought of the show moments after it ended in our podcast recap here.
