Except for major longshots like “The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth,” “Werwulf” and “The Mosquito Bowl,” every potential Best Picture candidate aside from “Dune: Part Three” has now been seen and rated in some shape or form. So since we pretty much know what films are still in the race at this stage, we can sort them into how high or low they really are, regardless of whether they move up or down later.
We can divide what may be up to 25 films still in the running for a Best Picture nomination into roughly six tiers. Until the next big developments this season, which may not come for several more weeks, these are where all those movies stand after the fall festival phase of Oscar season.
Locks: “The Odyssey,” “La Bola Negra,” “Wild Horse Nine,” “The Debut”
“The Odyssey” and “La Bola Negra” are the near-universally regarded top two, at least until “Dune: Part Three” reveals if it can break them up. Beyond that, the closest movies that are at least locked to get a nomination are in roughly the same boat, as both “Wild Horse Nine” and “The Debut” have a favorite for a lead acting win, potential frontrunners for Best Supporting Actor, and are likely the top two for Best Original Screenplay.
Yet “The Debut” isn’t as solid a lock as “Wild Horse Nine,” since its review scores were a little shakier coming out of TIFF, and its studio, A24, has several other candidates fighting to be its No. 1 option. With “Wild Horse Nine,” it is locked as Searchlight’s No. 1 film after “Behemoth!” wasn’t raved high enough to dislodge it at NYFF, and has become a solid favorite in Best Actor and in Best Original Screenplay for the moment. But as long as Julianne Moore remains an even larger favorite for Best Actress, and as long as A24 films like “The Invite,” “Club Kid,” and “You Can See Everything” don’t make any bigger strides than they already have, “The Debut” still has to be considered No. 1 in A24’s field – and therefore a lock in the Best Picture field.
Lock If Nothing Goes Wrong: “Dune: Part Three”
Thanks to late-breaking blockbusters that turned into awards season flops like “Wicked: For Good” and “Avatar: Fire and Ash” last year, it can’t be said there isn’t a way “Dune: Part Three” can fall out, too. Reviews that are considerably lower than “Dune: Part Two” and even below the original “Dune” could turn this finale into a bubble film very quickly, instead of a threat to win Best Picture.
Reviews merely on par with the previous “Dune” films might still be enough to get it at least in, although it might make it harder to stand out against this year’s other prospective blockbuster nominees. But as long as it is the biggest unknown left in the field, and as long as it is the only film left with a path that could threaten “The Odyssey” and “La Bola Negra,” “Dune: Part Three” is a placeholder nominee until and unless it proves itself to be something far more vulnerable.
Half Lock/Half Bubble: “Project Hail Mary,” “Obsession,” “The Invite”
These films have a fair case to argue they should already be locked in, but enough can still go wrong to knock all three down to the bubble, if not lower.
“Project Hail Mary” has been presumed safe for months, though suspicions remain that it will grow weaker months after its initial release and box office success. And now that Amazon/MGM has a more traditional industry Oscar bait option in “I Play Rocky,” paranoia that Amazon will abandon one film with a “Rocky” as a main character and pivot to the other will linger. Yet if “Project Hail Mary” earns a potential Best Adapted Screenplay nomination and keeps a potential Best Actor nomination for Ryan Gosling, that, along with its likely tech nominations, should keep it fairly safe.
“Obsession” is another early-season blockbuster with the potential to lose its early momentum months later, especially now that Inde Navarrette is not the leading Best Actress favorite anymore and a critical Best Original Screenplay nomination is far from secure. However, Focus Features can almost always be guaranteed to get its No. 1 priority into Best Picture – and as long as being the most profitable Focus movie of all time outweighs whatever something like “Elsinore,” “Sense and Sensibility,” or “Werwulf” can do, “Obsession” may still have the full weight of Focus’s formidable resources to push it in.
“The Invite” has the potential misfortune of being on the short end of A24’s divided resources, between “The Debut,” “Club Kid,” and “You Can See Everything.” And as the likes of “Past Lives,” “Sing Sing,” and every 2025 A24 film that wasn’t “Marty Supreme” can attest, A24 hasn’t done right by its early season contenders since “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” Yet as long as it has three or maybe even four acting nominations in play, as long as Olivia Wilde has an historic Best Director and Best Actress nomination combo in sight, and as long as its already near-certain Best Adapted Screenplay nomination can be win competitive, it can stay in A24’s top two or even keep threatening “The Debut” for its No. 1.
Bubble Films: “All of a Sudden,” “Artificial,” “Fjord,” “I Play Rocky,” “Elsinore,” “Possible Love,” “Club Kid”
Within this group, there is a clear divide in reviews. “All of a Sudden,” “Possible Love,” and “Club Kid” have near-perfect receptions and ratings, while “Elsinore,” “I Play Rocky,” “Fjord,” and “Artificial” already either have their detractors or have more glowing reactions for their stars than their movies in full. But once industry voting starts, that alone might be enough for some of them.
“All of a Sudden,” “Artificial,” and “Fjord” are all crowded together in NEON’s pecking order, but whichever one ends up at No. 1 should be safe – whether or not there’s room for NEON to get a second nominee in like there was last year. But if both “All of a Sudden” and “Fjord” wind up out, then perhaps that could give Netflix’s “Possible Love” the opening to be the year’s second International Best Picture nominee instead.
As for “Elsinore,” could Andrew Scott become such a threat to win Best Actor that he drags the rest of the film in with him, to either give Focus two Best Picture nominees for a second year in a row or supplant “Obsession” as its sole nominee this year? And even if there’s no room for two NEON films, two Focus films, or two International films, could that leave enough room for a potential record-setting third A24 nominee in “Club Kid?”
Last year, the Best Picture bubble ultimately favored a mixed-reviewed industry favorite in “F1,” rather than critical darlings like “It Was Just an Accident,” “Blue Moon,” and “Weapons.” If that holds this year, “I Play Rocky,” “Elsinore,” and maybe “Artificial,” snubbing the likes of “All of a Sudden,” “Possible Love,” and “Club Kid” may supercharge disappointment in certain circles on nomination morning – or will it go in the other direction this year?
Films Right Below The Bubble: “Being Heumann,” “Behemoth!,” “Sense and Sensibility,” “Primetime,” “Ink”
These films weren’t strong enough out of the gate to be locks, or to get higher up the Best Picture bubble. Yet each still has a chance at significant nominations elsewhere, and can keep its foot in the door if other movies slip up.
For “Being Heumann,” having a surprise third-place finish in TIFF, having Ruth Madeley on a very shaky Best Actress bubble, and being the unquestioned No. 1 push for Apple Studios are advantages that cannot be taken lightly. Meanwhile, “Sense and Sensibility” could use below-the-line nominations and a potential Best Supporting Actress push for Esme Creed-Miles to stay on the radar, while “Behemoth!” has the backing of Searchlight and a possible nomination case for Pedro Pascal to play with, and “Primetime” has a shot as long as Robert Pattinson, Skyler Gisondo and Merritt Wever have backers for acting nominations. And if “Possible Love” doesn’t stay perfect enough to be a legitimate No. 2 option for Netflix, it can always pivot back to “Ink” and hope its release during Oscar voting makes a timely last-second impact.
It would take a lot of breaks for any of these movies to become a real possibility again. Yet as long as the strengths they still have remain strong, they are only almost out of the running for now.
Unprecedented Options: “You Can See Everything,” “Wildwood,” “Tender Loving Care,” “Digger,” “Michael”
There is almost no historical precedent for any of these films to get into Best Picture, but some will argue it is still possible.
No documentary – or however “You Can See Everything” is classified – has ever been a Best Picture nominee. But if this coming week keeps eye-poppingly high review scores for Nathan Fielder, Lance Oppenheim, and Elizabeth Holmes’ little experiment, and matches them with box office success, the shocks and surprises about this movie may not be over yet.
Just as many already insist “You Can See Everything” can break a long-time bias against documentaries for Best Picture, some will argue “Wildwood” can break a long-time bias against non Disney/Pixar animated films for Best Picture too. Its high early reviews are not on the level of “You Can See Everything,” or maybe even the “Spider-Verse” animated films that fell short in recent years, but the next few weeks will be its make-or-break moment as well.
By comparison, “Tender Loving Care” has less daunting history against it. However, the inability of Bleecker Street films to receive major nominations in the last few years is a huge obstacle nonetheless. Yet if Mike Leigh’s likely final film can’t do it – especially with its own perfect scores so far and a recent Emmy winner like Kate O’Flynn in its cast – then nothing can.
At the opposite end of the spectrum are two films that would be the worst-reviewed Best Picture nominees of the expanded era, if not the worst-reviewed nominees of all time. And yet the continued insistence that “Michael” will be saved by its billion-dollar box office and two potential acting nominees, along with continued insistence that “Digger” will be saved by industry heavyweights regardless of its less than billion-dollar box office, will have to be proven wrong again and again until they’re declared dead for good – or until they aren’t.
It may be generous to still have all these movies under Best Picture consideration. Yet barring something out of nowhere, this is what we have left to work with and what may be whittled further down soon enough.
Which 10 films are you predicting for Best Picture? Are there any other contenders you’re predicting that weren’t mentioned here? Please let us know in the comments section below and on Next Best Picture’s X account, and check out Next Best Picture’s latest Oscar predictions here.
