Our final three tech awards for the 89th Academy Awards are here. I was anxiously awaiting the results of the guilds to tell me something with these categories and I think I have my mind made up on at least 2 out of the three categories. With only a few days left until the big show, here is my in-depth analysis of Best Makeup & Hair Styling, Production Design and Costume Design for this year’s Oscar.
Click below to read my in-depth analysis.
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
The nominees are:
“A Man Called Ove”
“Star Trek Beyond“
”Suicide Squad“
“Jackie” won the Critics Choice Award while “Florence Foster Jenkins” won BAFTA which does not help us out here in the slightest. Both “Star Trek Beyond” & ”Suicide Squad” picked up awards from the Makeup Artists & Hairstylists Guild. I’m not going to bore you with stats here because quite frankly there are none. When in doubt, go with the best reviewed movie that everyone has heard of. Realistically, any film can win here though.
PREDICTED WINNER: “Star Trek Beyond“
RUNNER UP: ”Suicide Squad“
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
This year for Best Production Design, it’s most likely between the Best Picture frontrunner and the BAFTA winner.
The nominees are:
“Arrival“
“Fantastic Beasts & Where To Find Them“
“Hail, Caesar!“
“La La Land“
”Passengers“
And here are the stats for the Critics Choice Awards, Art Directors Guild and BAFTA through the years with Oscar.
| CRITICS CHOICE 2009: Avatar 2010: Inception 2011: Hugo 2012: Anna Kerenina 2013: The Great Gatsby 2014: The Grand Budapest Hotel 2015: Mad Max: Fury Road 2016: La La Land | ADG 1996: The English Patient 1997: Titanic 1998: What Dreams May Come 1999: Sleepy Hollow 2000: Gladiator/Chocolat 2001: Moulin Rouge/Amelie 2002: The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers/Catch Me If You Can 2003: The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King/Mystic River 2004: Lemony Snicket’s A Series Of Unfortunate Events/The Terminal 2005: Memoirs Of A Geisha/Walk The Line 2006: Curse Of The Golden Flower/Pan’s Labyrinth/Casino Royale 2007: There Will Be Blood/The Golden Compass/No Country For Old Men 2008: The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button/The Dark Knight/Slumdog Millionaire 2009: Sherlock Holmes/Avatar/The Hurt Locker 2010: The King’s Speech/Inception/Black Swan 2011: Hugo/Harry Potter & The Deathly Hallows Part 2/The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo 2012: Anna Kerenina/Life Of Pi/Skyfall 2013: The Great Gatsby/Gravity/Her 2014: The Grand Budapest Hotel/Guardians Of The Galaxy/Birdman 2015: The Revenant/Mad Max: Fury Road/The Martian 2016: Hidden Figures/Passengers/La La Land | BAFTA 1968: 2001: A Space Odyssey 1969: Oh! What A Lovely War 1970: Waterloo 1971: Death In Venice 1972: Cabaret 1973: The Hireling 1974: The Great Gatsby 1975: Rollerball 1976: Bugsy Malone 1977: Fellini’s Casanova 1978: Close Encounters Of The Third Kind 1979: Alien 1980: The Elephant Man 1981: Raiders Of The Lost Ark 1982: Blade Runner 1983: La Traviata 1984: The Killing Fields 1985: Brazil 1986: A Room With A View 1987: Radio Days 1988: Tucker: The Man & His Dream 1989: The Adventures Of Baron Manchausen 1990: Dick Tracy 1991: Edward Scissorhands 1992: Strictly Ballroom 1993: The Piano 1994: Interview With A Vampire 1995: Apollo 13 1996: Richard III 1997: Romeo + Juliet 1998: The Truman Show 1999: Sleepy Hollow 2000: Gladiator 2001: Amelie 2002: Road To Perdition 2003: Master & Commander: the Far Side Of The World 2004: The Aviator 2005: Harry Potter & The Goblet Of Fire 2006: Children Of Men 2007: Atonement 2008: The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button 2009: Avatar 2010: Inception 2011: Hugo 2012: Les Miserables 2013: The Great Gatsby 2014: The Grand Budapest Hotel 2015: Mad Max: Fury Road 2016: Fantastic Beasts & Where To Find Them | OSCAR 1968: Oliver! 1969: Hello, Dolly! 1970: Patton 1971: Nicholas & Alexandra 1972: Cabaret 1973: The Sting 1974: The Godfather Part II 1975: Barry Lyndon 1976: All The President’s Men 1977: Star Wars 1978: Heaven Can Wait 1979: All That Jazz 1980: Tess 1981: Raiders Of The Lost Ark 1982: Gandhi 1983: Fanny & Alexander 1984: Amadeus 1985: Out Of Africa 1986: A Room With A View 1987: The Last Emperor 1988: Dangerous Liaisons 1989: Batman 1990: Dick Tracy 1991: Bugsy 1992: Howards End 1993: Schindler’s List 1994: The Madness Of King George 1995: Restoration 1996: The English Patient 1997: Titanic 1998: Shakespeare In Love 1999: Sleepy Hollow 2000: Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon 2001: Moulin Rouge 2002: Chicago 2003: The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King 2004: The Aviator 2005: Memoirs Of A Geisha 2006: Pan’s Labyrinth 2007: Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber Of Fleet Street 2008: The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button 2009: Avatar 2010: Alice In Wonderland 2011: Hugo 2012: Lincoln 2013: The Great Gatsby 2014: The Grand Budapest Hotel 2015: Mad Max: Fury Road 2016: ? |
For “Arrival,” & “Hail, Caesar!,” these are the films that won the Oscar for Production Design without a win from Critics Choice, ADG or BAFTA from 1996 till the present day:
1998: Shakespeare In Love
2000: Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
2002: Chicago
2007: Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber Of Fleet Street
2010: Alice In Wonderland
2012: Lincoln
2004 remains the only year since the ADG have been around, that a film which only won BAFTA, went on to win the Oscar and that was “The Aviator.” This does not bode well for “Fantastic Beasts & Where To Find Them.” It is also worth mentioning that BAFTA has recognized the Harry Potter world more than the Oscars ever did, including a win in this category back in 2005. Call it British love.
Previous ADG/Critics Choice combo winners have included “Avatar,” “Hugo,” “The Great Gatsby,” “The Grand Budapest Hotel” & “Mad Max: Fury Road.” That’s 5 out of the 7 years that Critics Choice have been around. This bodes well for “La La Land” which is also heavily favored to win Costumes, which we will get to a second…
PREDICTED WINNER: “La La Land“
RUNNER UP: “Fantastic Beasts & Where To Find Them“
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
And now we come to one of the harder categories to predict the night of the Oscars. This is one of the tech awards which could make or break your Oscar pool with your friends. The nominees this year for Costume Design are:
“Allied“
“Fantastic Beats & Where To Find Them“
“Florence Foster Jenkins“
“Jackie“
“La La Land“
Here are the stats with the Critics Choice Awards, the Costume Designers Guild and the BAFTA and how they all matched up with the Oscars since the BAFTA’s have been around in 1968.
| CRITICS CHOICE 2009: The Young Victoria 2010: Alice In Wonderland 2011: The Artist 2012: Anna Kerenina 2013: The Great Gatsby 2014: The Grand Budapest Hotel 2015: Mad Max: Fury Road 2016: Jackie | CDG (Contemporary/Period/Fantasy)1999: American Beauty/Sleepy Hollow 2000: Erin Brockovich/Dr. Seuss’ How The Grinch Stole Christmas 2001: The Royal Tenenbaums/Harry Potter & The Sorcerer’s Stone 2002: About Schmidt/Chicago 2003: A Mighty Wind/The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King 2004: The Life Aquatic With Steve Zissou/Lemony Snicket’s A Series Of Unfortunate Events 2005: Transamerica/MemoirsOf A Geisha/The Chronicles Of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch & The Wardrobe 2006: The Queen/Curse Of The Golden Flower/Pan’s Labyrinth 2007: Blades Of Glory/Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber Of Fleet Street/The Golden Compass 2008: Slumdog Millionaire/The Duchess/The Dark Knight 2009: Crazy Heart/The Young Victoria/The Imaginarium Of Doctor Parnassus 2010: Black Swan/The King’s Speech/Alice In Wonderland 2011: The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo/W.E./Harry Potter & The Deathly Hallows Part 2 2012: Skyfall/Anna Karenina/Mirror Mirror 2013: Blue Jasmine/12 Years A Slave/The Hunger Games: Catching Fire 2014: Birdman/The Grand Budapest Hotel/Into The Woods 2015: Beasts Of Nation/The Danish Girl/Mad Max: Fury Road 2016: La La Land/Hidden Figures/Doctor Strange | BAFTA 1968: Romeo & Juliet 1969: Oh! What A Lovely War 1970: Waterloo 1971: Death In Venice 1972: Alice’s Adventures In Wonderland, Macbeth & Young Winston 1973: The Hireling 1974: The Great Gatsby 1975: The Day Of The Locust 1976: La Marquise d’O 1977: Fellini’s Casanova 1978: Death On The Nile 1979: Yanks 1980: The Shadow Warrior 1981: Chariots Of Fire 1982: Blade Runner 1983: La Traviata 1984: Once Upon A Time In America 1985: The Cotton Club 1986: A Room With A View 1987: Radio Days 1988: The Last Emperor 1989: The Adventures Of Baron Munchausen 1990: Goodfellas 1991: Cyrano de Bergerac 1992: Strictly Ballroom 1993: The Piano 1994: The Adventures Of Priscilla, Queen Of The Desert 1995: Braveheart 1996: Richard III 1997: Mrs Brown 1998: Velvet Goldmine 1999: Sleepy Hollow 2000: Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon 2001: Gosford Park 2002: The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers 2003: Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World 2004: Vera Drake 2005: Memoirs Of A Geisha 2006: Pan’s Labyrinth 2007: La Vie en Rose 2008: The Duchess 2009: The Young Victoria 2010: Alice In Wonderland 2011: The Artist 2012: Anna Karenina 2013: The Great Gatsby 2014: The Grand Budapest Hotel 2015: Mad Max: Fury Road 2016: Jackie | OSCAR 1968: Romeo & Juliet 1969: Anne Of The Thousand Days 1970: Cromwell 1971: Nicholas & Alexandra 1972: Travels With My Aunt 1973: The Sting 1974: The Great Gatsby 1975: Barry Lyndon 1976: Fellini’s Casanova 1977: Star Wars 1978: Death On The Nile 1979: All That Jazz 1980: Tess 1981: Chariots Of Fire 1982: Gandhi 1983: Fanny & Alexander 1984: Amadeus 1985: Ran 1986: A Room With A View 1987: The Last Emperor 1988: Dangerous Liaisons 1989: Henry V 1990: Cyrano de Bergerac 1991: Bugsy 1992: Bran Stoker’s Dracula 1993: The Age Of Innocence 1994: The Adventures Of Priscilla, Queen Of The Desert 1995: Restoration 1996: The English Patient 1997: Titanic 1998: Shakespeare In Love 1999: Topsy Turvy 2000: Gladiator 2001: Moulin Rouge 2002: Chicago 2003: The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King 2004: The Aviator 2005: Memoirs Of A Geisha 2006: Marie Antoinette 2007: Elizabeth: The Golden Age 2008: The Duchess 2009: The Young Victoria 2010: Alice In Wonderland 2011: The Artist 2012: Anna Karenina 2013: The Great Gatsby 2014: The Grand Budapest Hotel 2015: Mad Max: Fury Road 2016: ? |
In “Fantastic Beasts & Where To Find Them” & “La La Land’s” defense, in the last 48 years, Best Costume Design & Production Design have matched 26 times (54%).
1971: Nicholas & Alexandra
1973: The Sting
1975: Barry Lyndon
1977: Star Wars
1979: All That Jazz
1980: Tess
1982: Gandhi
1983: Fanny & Alexander
1984: Amadeus
1986: A Room With A View
1987: The Last Emperor
1988: Dangerous Liaisons
1991: Bugsy
1995: Restoration
1996: The English Patient
1997: Titanic
1998: Shakespeare In Love
2001: Moulin Rouge
2002: Chicago
2003: The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
2004: The Aviator
2005: Memoirs Of A Geisha
2010: Alice In Wonderland
2013: The Great Gatsby
2014: The Grand Budapest Hotel
2015: Mad Max: Fury Road
Of those 26 films, 9 of them ended up winning Best Picture (35%). On top of all of that, the smallest Oscar haul for those Best Picture winning films was 6 awards for “Chicago” in 2002. So typically, in sweep like years, the Best Picture winner will typically take both awards. Within the sample size provided (1968-2015) the following films won Best Picture and only Production Design, not Costume Design:
1968: Oliver!
1970: Patton
1974: The Godfather Part 2
1985: Out Of Africa
1993: Schindler’s List
And these are the Best Picture Winners which won Costume Design but not Production Design:
1981: Chariots Of Fire
2000: Gladiator
2011: The Artist
So while it would appear that the odds favor for “La La Land” to take both Production Design & Costume Design after winning both guild awards, both Critics Choice and BAFTA have been telling us who the winner would be in this category for the last 7 and 8 years respectively. It is also worth mentioning that no Contemporary Costume winner from the CDG has ever gone on to win the Oscar. We have seen the Oscar winner miss out in recent years with the CDG such as in 2011 & 2013. Both of those years, the Oscar went to the Critics Choice and BAFTA winner. It’s very close but it is with these findings I conclude that Production Design & Costume Design will split this year and costumes will go to “Jackie” which would also act as a way to reward that film.
PREDICTED WINNER: “Jackie“
RUNNER UP: “La La Land“
What do you think? Which films are you predicting to win these categories? Be sure to let me know in the comments below.
You can follow Matt and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars and Film on Twitter at @NextBestPicture
