Wednesday, December 6, 2023

Predicting The 89th Academy Awards: Best Makeup & Hairstyling, Production Design & Costume Design

Our final three tech awards for the 89th Academy Awards are here. I was anxiously awaiting the results of the guilds to tell me something with these categories and I think I have my mind made up on at least 2 out of the three categories. With only a few days left until the big show, here is my in-depth analysis of Best Makeup & Hair Styling, Production Design and Costume Design for this year’s Oscar.

​Click below to read my in-depth analysis.

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

Makeup Oscar

The nominees are:

“A Man Called Ove”
Star Trek Beyond
​”Suicide Squad

Jackie” won the Critics Choice Award while “Florence Foster Jenkins” won BAFTA which does not help us out here in the slightest. Both “Star Trek Beyond” & ​”Suicide Squad” picked up awards from the Makeup Artists & Hairstylists Guild. I’m not going to bore you with stats here because quite frankly there are none. When in doubt, go with the best reviewed movie that everyone has heard of. Realistically, any film can win here though.

PREDICTED WINNER: “Star Trek Beyond
RUNNER UP: ​”Suicide Squad

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Production Design Oscar

This year for Best Production Design, it’s most likely between the Best Picture frontrunner and the BAFTA winner.

The nominees are:

Arrival
Fantastic Beasts & Where To Find Them
Hail, Caesar!
La La Land
​”Passengers

​And here are the stats for the Critics Choice Awards, Art Directors Guild and BAFTA through the years with Oscar.

CRITICS CHOICE
2009: Avatar
2010: Inception
2011: Hugo
2012: Anna Kerenina
2013: The Great Gatsby
2014: The Grand Budapest Hotel
2015: Mad Max: Fury Road
2016: La La Land
ADG
1996: The English Patient
1997: Titanic
1998: What Dreams May Come
1999: Sleepy Hollow
2000: Gladiator/Chocolat
2001: Moulin Rouge/Amelie
2002: The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers/Catch Me If You Can
2003: The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King/Mystic River
2004: Lemony Snicket’s A Series Of Unfortunate Events/The Terminal
2005: Memoirs Of A Geisha/Walk The Line
2006: Curse Of The Golden Flower/Pan’s Labyrinth/Casino Royale
2007: There Will Be Blood/The Golden Compass/No Country For Old Men
2008: The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button/The Dark Knight/Slumdog Millionaire
2009: Sherlock Holmes/Avatar/The Hurt Locker
2010: The King’s Speech/Inception/Black Swan
2011: Hugo/Harry Potter & The Deathly Hallows Part 2/The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
2012: Anna Kerenina/Life Of Pi/Skyfall
2013: The Great Gatsby/Gravity/Her
2014: The Grand Budapest Hotel/Guardians Of The Galaxy/Birdman
2015: The Revenant/Mad Max: Fury Road/The Martian
​2016: Hidden Figures/Passengers/La La Land
BAFTA
1968: 2001: A Space Odyssey
1969: Oh! What A Lovely War
1970: Waterloo
1971: Death In Venice
1972: Cabaret
1973: The Hireling
1974: The Great Gatsby
1975: Rollerball
1976: Bugsy Malone
1977: Fellini’s Casanova
1978: Close Encounters Of The Third Kind
1979: Alien
1980: The Elephant Man
​1981: Raiders Of The Lost Ark
1982: Blade Runner
1983: La Traviata
1984: The Killing Fields
1985: Brazil
1986: A Room With A View
1987: Radio Days
1988: Tucker: The Man & His Dream
1989: The Adventures Of Baron Manchausen
1990: Dick Tracy
1991: Edward Scissorhands
1992: Strictly Ballroom
1993: The Piano
1994: Interview With A Vampire
1995: Apollo 13
1996: Richard III
1997: Romeo + Juliet
1998: The Truman Show
1999: Sleepy Hollow
2000: Gladiator
2001: Amelie
2002: Road To Perdition
2003: Master & Commander: the Far Side Of The World
2004: The Aviator
2005: Harry Potter & The Goblet Of Fire
2006: Children Of Men
2007: Atonement
2008: The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
2009: Avatar
2010: Inception
2011: Hugo
2012: Les Miserables
2013: The Great Gatsby
2014: The Grand Budapest Hotel
2015: Mad Max: Fury Road
​2016: Fantastic Beasts & Where To Find Them
OSCAR
1968: Oliver!
1969: Hello, Dolly!
1970: Patton
1971: Nicholas & Alexandra
1972: Cabaret
1973: The Sting
1974: The Godfather Part II
1975: Barry Lyndon
1976: All The President’s Men
1977: Star Wars
1978: Heaven Can Wait
1979: All That Jazz
1980: Tess
​1981: Raiders Of The Lost Ark
1982: Gandhi
1983: Fanny & Alexander
1984: Amadeus
1985: Out Of Africa
1986: A Room With A View
1987: The Last Emperor
1988: Dangerous Liaisons
1989: Batman
1990: Dick Tracy
1991: Bugsy
1992: Howards End
1993: Schindler’s List
1994: The Madness Of King George
1995: Restoration
1996: The English Patient
1997: Titanic
1998: Shakespeare In Love
1999: Sleepy Hollow
2000: Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
2001: Moulin Rouge
2002: Chicago
2003: The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
2004: The Aviator
2005: Memoirs Of A Geisha
2006: Pan’s Labyrinth
2007: Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber Of Fleet Street
2008: The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
2009: Avatar
2010: Alice In Wonderland
2011: Hugo
2012: Lincoln
2013: The Great Gatsby
2014: The Grand Budapest Hotel
2015: Mad Max: Fury Road
​2016: ?

For “Arrival,” & “Hail, Caesar!,” these are the films that won the Oscar for Production Design without a win from Critics Choice, ADG or BAFTA from 1996 till the present day:

1998: Shakespeare In Love
2000: Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
2002: Chicago
2007: Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber Of Fleet Street
2010: Alice In Wonderland
2012: Lincoln

2004 remains the only year since the ADG have been around, that a film which only won BAFTA, went on to win the Oscar and that was “The Aviator.” This does not bode well for “Fantastic Beasts & Where To Find Them.” It is also worth mentioning that BAFTA has recognized the Harry Potter world more than the Oscars ever did, including a win in this category back in 2005. Call it British love.

​Previous ADG/Critics Choice combo winners have included “Avatar,” “Hugo,” “The Great Gatsby,” “The Grand Budapest Hotel” & “Mad Max: Fury Road.” That’s 5 out of the 7 years that Critics Choice have been around. This bodes well for “La La Land” which is also heavily favored to win Costumes, which we will get to a second…

PREDICTED WINNER: “La La Land
RUNNER UP: “Fantastic Beasts & Where To Find Them

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Costume Design Oscar

And now we come to one of the harder categories to predict the night of the Oscars. This is one of the tech awards which could make or break your Oscar pool with your friends. The nominees this year for Costume Design are:

Allied
Fantastic Beats & Where To Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land

​Here are the stats with the Critics Choice Awards, the Costume Designers Guild and the BAFTA and how they all matched up with the Oscars since the BAFTA’s have been around in 1968.

CRITICS CHOICE
2009: The Young Victoria
2010: Alice In Wonderland
2011: The Artist
2012: Anna Kerenina
2013: The Great Gatsby
2014: The Grand Budapest Hotel
2015: Mad Max: Fury Road
2016: Jackie
CDG (Contemporary/Period/Fantasy)1999: American Beauty/Sleepy Hollow
2000: Erin Brockovich/Dr. Seuss’ How The Grinch Stole Christmas
2001: The Royal Tenenbaums/Harry Potter & The Sorcerer’s Stone
2002: About Schmidt/Chicago
2003: A Mighty Wind/The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
2004: The Life Aquatic With Steve Zissou/Lemony Snicket’s A Series Of Unfortunate Events
2005: Transamerica/MemoirsOf A Geisha/The Chronicles Of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch & The Wardrobe
2006: The Queen/Curse Of The Golden Flower/Pan’s Labyrinth
2007: Blades Of Glory/Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber Of Fleet Street/The Golden Compass
2008: Slumdog Millionaire/The Duchess/The Dark Knight
2009: Crazy Heart/The Young Victoria/The Imaginarium Of Doctor Parnassus
2010: Black Swan/The King’s Speech/Alice In Wonderland
2011: The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo/W.E./Harry Potter & The Deathly Hallows Part 2
2012: Skyfall/Anna Karenina/Mirror Mirror
2013: Blue Jasmine/12 Years A Slave/The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
2014: Birdman/The Grand Budapest Hotel/Into The Woods
2015: Beasts Of Nation/The Danish Girl/Mad Max: Fury Road
​2016: La La Land/Hidden Figures/Doctor Strange
BAFTA
1968: Romeo & Juliet
1969: Oh! What A Lovely War
1970: Waterloo
1971: Death In Venice
1972: Alice’s Adventures In Wonderland, Macbeth & Young Winston
1973: The Hireling
1974: The Great Gatsby
1975: The Day Of The Locust
1976: La Marquise d’O
1977: Fellini’s Casanova
1978: Death On The Nile
1979: Yanks
1980: The Shadow Warrior
​1981: Chariots Of Fire
1982: Blade Runner
1983: La Traviata
1984: Once Upon A Time In America
1985: The Cotton Club
1986: A Room With A View
1987: Radio Days
1988: The Last Emperor
1989: The Adventures Of Baron Munchausen
1990: Goodfellas
1991: Cyrano de Bergerac
1992: Strictly Ballroom
1993: The Piano
1994: The Adventures Of Priscilla, Queen Of The Desert
1995: Braveheart
1996: Richard III
1997: Mrs Brown
1998: Velvet Goldmine
1999: Sleepy Hollow
2000: Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
2001: Gosford Park
2002: The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers
2003: Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
2004: Vera Drake
2005: Memoirs Of A Geisha
2006: Pan’s Labyrinth
2007: La Vie en Rose
2008: The Duchess
2009: The Young Victoria
2010: Alice In Wonderland
2011: The Artist
2012: Anna Karenina
2013: The Great Gatsby
2014: The Grand Budapest Hotel
2015: Mad Max: Fury Road
​2016: Jackie
OSCAR
1968: Romeo & Juliet
1969: Anne Of The Thousand Days
1970: Cromwell
1971: Nicholas & Alexandra
1972: Travels With My Aunt
1973: The Sting
1974: The Great Gatsby
1975: Barry Lyndon
1976: Fellini’s Casanova
1977: Star Wars
1978: Death On The Nile
1979: All That Jazz
1980: Tess
​1981: Chariots Of Fire
1982: Gandhi
1983: Fanny & Alexander
1984: Amadeus
1985: Ran
1986: A Room With A View
1987: The Last Emperor
1988: Dangerous Liaisons
1989: Henry V
1990: Cyrano de Bergerac
1991: Bugsy
1992: Bran Stoker’s Dracula
1993: The Age Of Innocence
1994: The Adventures Of Priscilla, Queen Of The Desert
1995: Restoration
1996: The English Patient
1997: Titanic
1998: Shakespeare In Love
1999: Topsy Turvy
2000: Gladiator
2001: Moulin Rouge
2002: Chicago
2003: The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
2004: The Aviator
2005: Memoirs Of A Geisha
2006: Marie Antoinette
2007: Elizabeth: The Golden Age
2008: The Duchess
2009: The Young Victoria
2010: Alice In Wonderland
2011: The Artist
2012: Anna Karenina
2013: The Great Gatsby
2014: The Grand Budapest Hotel
2015: Mad Max: Fury Road
​2016: ?

In “Fantastic Beasts & Where To Find Them” & “La La Land’s” defense, in the last 48 years, Best Costume Design & Production Design have matched 26 times (54%).

1971: Nicholas & Alexandra
1973: The Sting
1975: Barry Lyndon
1977: Star Wars
1979: All That Jazz
1980: Tess
1982: Gandhi
1983: Fanny & Alexander
1984: Amadeus
1986: A Room With A View
1987: The Last Emperor
1988: Dangerous Liaisons
1991: Bugsy
1995: Restoration
1996: The English Patient
1997: Titanic
1998: Shakespeare In Love
2001: Moulin Rouge
2002: Chicago
2003: The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
2004: The Aviator
2005: Memoirs Of A Geisha
2010: Alice In Wonderland
2013: The Great Gatsby
2014: The Grand Budapest Hotel
2015: Mad Max: Fury Road

Of those 26 films, 9 of them ended up winning Best Picture (35%). On top of all of that, the smallest Oscar haul for those Best Picture winning films was 6 awards for “Chicago” in 2002. So typically, in sweep like years, the Best Picture winner will typically take both awards. Within the sample size provided (1968-2015) the following films won Best Picture and only Production Design, not Costume Design:

1968: Oliver!
1970: Patton
1974: The Godfather Part 2
1985: Out Of Africa
1993: Schindler’s List

And these are the Best Picture Winners which won Costume Design but not Production Design:

1981: Chariots Of Fire
2000: Gladiator
2011: The Artist

So while it would appear that the odds favor for “La La Land” to take both Production Design & Costume Design after winning both guild awards, both Critics Choice and BAFTA have been telling us who the winner would be in this category for the last 7 and 8 years respectively. It is also worth mentioning that no Contemporary Costume winner from the CDG has ever gone on to win the Oscar. We have seen the Oscar winner miss out in recent years with the CDG such as in 2011 & 2013. Both of those years, the Oscar went to the Critics Choice and BAFTA winner. It’s very close but it is with these findings I conclude that Production Design & Costume Design will split this year and costumes will go to “Jackie” which would also act as a way to reward that film.

PREDICTED WINNER: “Jackie
​RUNNER UP: “La La Land

What do you think? Which films are you predicting to win these categories? Be sure to let me know in the comments below.

You can follow Matt and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars and Film on Twitter at @NextBestPicture

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Matt Neglia
Matt Negliahttps://nextbestpicture.com/
Obsessed about the Oscars, Criterion Collection and all things film 24/7. Critics Choice Member.

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