With the tech awards officially out of the way, we now turn our eyes to the above the line categories. This year’s screenplay categories feel like a done deal in one category while the other is practically a coin flip.
Click below to see my in-depth analysis.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The nominees for Best Adapted Screenplay are:
“Arrival“
“Fences“
“Hidden Figures“
“Lion“
“Moonlight“
We have more information than most to work with here in helping us to determine what will happen in this category. Let’s look to the Critics Choice Award, Golden Globe awards for Best Screenplay, the WGA, USC Scripter and BAFTA for Best Adapted and how they all matched with the Oscar.
CRITICS CHOICE 1995: Sense & Sensibility 1996: The English Patient 1997: LA Confidential 1998: A Simple Plan 1999: The Green Mile 2000: Traffic 2001: Memento 2002: Adaptation & Confessions Of A Dangerous Mind 2003: In America 2004: Sideways 2005: Crash 2006: Little Miss Sunshine 2007: Juno 2008: Slumdog Millionaire 2009: Up In The Air 2010: The Social Network 2011: Moneyball 2012: Lincoln 2013: 12 Years A Slave 2014: Gone Girl 2015: The Big Short 2016: Arrival | GOLDEN GLOBE 1983: Terms Of Endearment 1984: Amadeus 1985: The Purple Rose Of Cairo 1986: The Mission 1987: The Last Emperor 1988: Running On Empty 1989: Born On The Fourth Of July 1990: Dances With Wolves 1991: Thelma & Louise 1992: Scent Of A Woman 1993: Schindler’s List 1994: Pulp Fiction 1995: Sense & Sensibility 1996: The People vs. Larry Flynt 1997: Good Will Hunting 1998: Shakespeare In Love 1999: American Beauty 2000: Traffic 2001: A Beautiful Mind 2002: About Schmidt 2003: Lost In Translation 2004: Sideways 2005: Brokeback Mountain 2006: The Queen 2007: No Country For Old Men 2008: Slumdog Millionaire 2009: Up In The Air 2010: The Social Network 2011: Midnight In Paris 2012: Django Unchained 2013: Her 2014: Birdman 2015: Steve Jobs 2016: La La Land | WGA 1984: The Killing Fields 1985: Prizzi’s Honor 1986: A Room With A View 1987: Roxanne 1988: Dangerous Liaisons 1989: Driving Miss Daisy 1990: Dances With Wolves 1991: The Silence Of The Lambs 1992: The Player 1993: Schindler’s List 1994: Forrest Gump 1995: Sense & Sensibility 1996: Sling Blade 1997: LA Confidential 1998: Out Of Sight 1999: Election 2000: Traffic 2001: A Beautiful Mind 2002: The Hours 2003: American Splendor 2004: Sideways 2005: Brokeback Mountain 2006: The Departed 2007: No Country For Old Men 2008: Slumdog Millionaire 2009: Up In The Air 2010: The Social Network 2011: The Descendants 2012: Argo 2013: Captain Phillips 2014: The Imitation Game 2015: The Big Short 2016: Arival | USC 1988: 84 Charing Cross Road 1989: The Accidental Tourist 1990: Awakenings 1991: Fried Green Tomatoes 1992: A River Runs Through It 1993: Schindler’s List 1994: The Shawshank Redemption 1995: Sense & Sensibility 1996: The English Patient 1997: LA Confidential 1998: A Civil Action 1999: The Hurricane 2000: Wonder Boys 2001: A Beautiful Mind 2002: The Hours 2003: Mystic River 2004: Million Dollar Baby 2005: Capote 2006: Children Of Men 2007: No Country For Old Men 2008: Slumdog Millionaire 2009: Up In The Air 2010: The Social Network 2011: The Descendants 2012: Argo 2013: 12 Years A Slave 2014: The Imitation Game 2015: The Big Short 2016: Moonlight | BAFTA 1983: Heat & Dust 1984: The Killing Fields 1985: Prizzi’s Honor 1986: Out Of Africa 1987: Jean de Florette 1988: The Unbearable Lightness Of Being 1989: Dangerous Liaisons 1990: Goodfellas 1991: The Commitments 1992: The Player 1993: Schindler’s List 1994: Quiz Show 1995: Trainspotting 1996: The English Patient 1997: Romeo + Juliet 1998: Primary Colors 1999: The End Of The Affair 2000: Traffic 2001: Shrek 2002: Adaptation 2003: The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King 2004: Sideways 2005: Brokeback Mountain 2006: The Last King Of Scotland 2007: The Diving Bell & The Butterfly 2008: Slumdog Millionaire 2009: Up In The Air 2010: The Social Network 2011: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy 2012: Silver Linings Playbook 2013: Philomena 2014: The Theory Of Everything 2015: The Big Short 2016: Lion | OSCAR 1983: Terms Of Endearment 1984: Amadeus 1985: Out Of Africa 1986: A Room With A View 1987: The Last Emperor 1988: Dangerous Liaisons 1989: Driving Miss Daisy 1990: Dances With Wolves 1991: The Silence Of The Lambs 1992: Howards End 1993: Schindler’s List 1994: Forrest Gump 1995: Sense & Sensibility 1996: Sling Blade 1997: LA Confidential 1998: Gods & Monsters 1999: The Cider House Rules 2000: Traffic 2001: A Beautiful Mind 2002: The Pianist 2003: The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King 2004: Sideways 2005: Brokeback Mountain 2006: The Departed 2007: No Country For Old Men 2008: Slumdog Millionaire 2009: Precious 2010: The Social Network 2011: The Descendants 2012: Argo 2013: 12 Years A Slave 2014: The Imitation Game 2015: The Big Short 2016: ? |
It’s pretty incredible when you take a look at the stats for screenplay and you see how many different avenues there are to predict the winner. The wild card all season long has been “Moonlight.” Nominated for Original Screenplay at the Critics Choice, BAFTA and even WGA (Where it won!), “Moonlight” has only had one opportunity to compete in an exclusively Adapted field and that was at the USC Scripter where it won. Here are the list of winners for the USC over the last 10 years.
2007: No Country For Old Men
2008: Slumdog Millionaire
2009: Up In The Air
2010: The Social Network
2011: The Descendants
2012: Argo
2013: 12 Years A Slave
2014: The Imitation Game
2015: The Big Short
2016: Moonlight
With the exception of “Up In The Air” the USC Scripter has correctly helped us predict the Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar winner over the last decade. And let’s be honest, we all expected “Up In The Air” was going to win that year. Every stat said it should and it simply ended up being one of those surprise wins for “Precious” that one could not simply predict. “Arrival” seems like the most likely to upset “Moonlight” here as it won at the two award shows where it did not have to go directly up against “Moonlight,” the Critics Choice & the WGA. A film that has won those two awards has never gone on to lose the Oscar which will make “Arrival” the first to do so. You can thank “Moonlight’s” category placement at the Oscars in Adapted for that one. While no one will be upset to see Barry Jenkins take home an Oscar, it’s a shame for all of the “Arrival” fans out there.
Oh, and regarding a surprise “Hidden Figures” win due to its recent surge in popularity or “Lion” trying to repeat its win at BAFTA…not going to happen in my opinion. “Hidden Figures” winning would be the previous scenario all over again and no BAFTA only winner for Adapted Screenplay has gone on to win the Oscar since “The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King” which was the Best Picture winner in a true sweep year. That is not “Lion.”
PREDICTED WINNER: “Moonlight“
RUNNER UP: “Arrival“
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Here we go. One of the toughest awards of the evening are between two films. One heavily favored to win Best Picture. The other, a Best Picture nominee with a respected writer at the helm whose screenplay is arguably the most celebrated aspect of the movie.
The nominees this year for Best Original Screenplay are:
“20th Century Women“
“Hell Or High Water“
“La La Land“
“The Lobster“
“Manchester By The Sea“
With all due respect to the nominees, this is a two-horse race. “La La Land” has won the Critics Choice and the Golden Globe for Best Screenplay. “Manchester By The Sea” has won the Critics Choice (Tying “La La Land“) and won the BAFTA. Neither film won the WGA, failing to give us an idea of which way AMPAS will go. Let’s dive in and see where all of this may end up…
CRITICS CHOICE 1995: Sense & Sensibility 1996: The English Patient 1997: Good Will Hunting 1998: Shakespeare In Love 1999: American Beauty 2000: Almost Famous 2001: Memento 2002: Adaptation & Confessions Of A Dangerous Mind 2003: In America 2004: Sideways 2005: Crash 2006: Little Miss Sunshine 2007: Juno 2008: Slumdog Millionaire 2009: Inglorious Basterds 2010: The King’s Speech 2011: Midnight In Paris 2012: Django Unchained 2013: Her 2014: Birdman 2015: Spotlight 2016: La La Land & Manchester By The Sea | GOLDEN GLOBE 1983: Terms Of Endearment 1984: Amadeus 1985: The Purple Rose Of Cairo 1986: The Mission 1987: The Last Emperor 1988: Running On Empty 1989: Born On The Fourth Of July 1990: Dances With Wolves 1991: Thelma & Louise 1992: Scent Of A Woman 1993: Schindler’s List 1994: Pulp Fiction 1995: Sense & Sensibility 1996: The People vs. Larry Flynt 1997: Good Will Hunting 1998: Shakespeare In Love 1999: American Beauty 2000: Traffic 2001: A Beautiful Mind 2002: About Schmidt 2003: Lost In Translation 2004: Sideways 2005: Brokeback Mountain 2006: The Queen 2007: No Country For Old Men 2008: Slumdog Millionaire 2009: Up In The Air 2010: The Social Network 2011: Midnight In Paris 2012: Django Unchained 2013: Her 2014: Birdman 2015: Steve Jobs 2016: La La Land | WGA 1984: Broadway Danny Rose 1985: Witness 1986: Hannah & Her Sisters 1987: Moonstruck 1988: Bull Durham 1989: Crimes & Misdemeanors 1990: Avalon 1991: Thelma & Louise 1992: The Crying Game 1993: The Piano 1994: Four Weddings & A Funeral 1995: Braveheart 1996: Fargo 1997: As Good As It Gets 1998: Shakespeare In Love 1999: American Beauty 2000: You Can Count On Me 2001: Gosford Park 2002: Bowling For Columbine 2003: Lost In Translation 2004: Eternal Sunshine Of The Spotless Mind 2005: Crash 2006: Little Miss Sunshine 2007: Juno 2008: Milk 2009: The Hurt Locker 2010: Inception 2011: Midnight In Paris 2012: Zero Dark Thirty 2013: Her 2014: The Grand Budapest Hotel 2015: Spotlight 2016: Moonlight | BAFTA 1983: The King Of Comedy 1984: Broadway Danny Rose 1985: The Purple Rose Of Cairo 1986: Hannah & Her Sisters 1987: Wish You Were Here 1988: A World Apart 1989: When Harry Met Sally… 1990: Cinema Paradiso 1991: Truly, Madly, Deeply 1992: Husbands & Wives 1993: Groundhog Day 1994: Pulp Fiction 1995: The Usual Suspects 1996: Secrets & Lies 1997: Nil By Mouth 1998: The Truman Show 1999: Being John Malkovich 2000: Almost Famous 2001: Amelie 2002: Talk To Her 2003: The Station Agent 2004: Eternal Sunshine Of The Spotless Mind 2005: Crash 2006: Little Miss Sunshine 2007: Juno 2008: In Bruges 2009: The Hurt Locker 2010: The King’s Speech 2011: The Artist 2012: Django Unchained 2013: American Hustle 2014: The Grand Budapest Hotel 2015: Spotlight 2016: Manchester By The Sea | OSCAR 1983: Tender Mercies 1984: Places In The Heart 1985: Witness 1986: Hannah & Her Sisters 1987: Moonstruck 1988: Rain Man 1989: Dead Poets Society 1990: Ghost 1991: Thelma & Louise 1992: The Crying Game 1993: The Piano 1994: Pulp Fiction 1995: The Usual Suspects 1996: Fargo 1997: Good Will Hunting 1998: Shakespeare In Love 1999: American Beauty 2000: Almost Famous 2001: Gosford Park 2002: Talk To Her 2003: Lost In Translation 2004: Eternal Sunshine Of The Spotless Mind 2005: Crash 2006: Little Miss Sunshine 2007: Juno 2008: Milk 2009: The Hurt Locker 2010: The King’s Speech 2011: Midnight In Paris 2012: Django Unchained 2013: Her 2014: Birdman 2015: Spotlight 2016: ? |
“Django Unchained” is the only Oscar winner for Original Screenplay since the Critics Choice have been around that has won the Critics Choice, BAFTA and Golden Globe.
However, because Golden Globe is a combination of both Original & Adapted screenplays, here are the films which have won the Critics Choice & BAFTA and went on to win the Oscar:
2000: Almost Famous
2005: Crash (Won WGA)
2006: Little Miss Sunshine (Won WGA)
2007: Juno (Won WGA)
2010: The King’s Speech
2015: Spotlight (Won WGA)
Unfortunately we have to take WGA out of it because both “La La Land” and “Manchester By The Sea” each lost there to “Moonlight” leaving only two times since the Critics Choice have been around that a film won there and the BAFTA and then went on to win the Oscar. BAFTA has predicted this category right 13 times in 33 years (39%). Those are “Manchester By The Sea’s” chances.
“La La Land” however has different chances at its side. Here are the films that won the Critics Choice Award & Golden Globe for Screenplay but went on to lose BAFTA and still win the Oscar:
1997: Good Will Hunting
1998: Shakespeare In Love (Won WGA)
1999: American Beauty (Won WGA)
2011: Midnight In Paris (Won WGA)
2013: Her (Won WGA)
2014: Birdman
That’s right. An equal number of times has the Critics Choice/Globe winner gone on to win the Oscar as the Critics Choice/BAFTA winner. The Golden Globe has gotten the Original Screenplay category right within this sample size of 1983-2015, 10 times (30%), which is slightly less than the BAFTA’s 39% success rate.
Now, you may think this gives the edge to “Manchester By The Sea” by a slim chance but we have to remember that the Golden Globe celebrates both Original & Adapted scripts in their category. The Golden Globes also have a crazy stat which shows that no winner for for Golden Globe for Best Screenplay EVER went on to lose that award at the Oscars if it also won the Best Picture Oscar. That may be a circumstantial accident but there is no denying that Screenplay typically tends to go towards the Best Picture winner. However, working in “Manchester By The Sea’s” favor is the fact that BAFTA has crossover with the Academy where the Critics Choice & Golden Globes do not. Also, no musical has won the Screenplay Oscar since “Gigi” did back in 1958. Even “West Side Story,” which won 10 Oscars, only lost screenplay. So what do we do? Unfortunately, we must go with our gut here.
Most will argue that Original Screenplay is the only place to honor “Manchester By The Sea” as many have voiced that they will not be voting for Casey Affleck for Best Actor (That post is coming soon…) and many don’t expect nor want to see “Manchester By The Sea,” one of the most acclaimed and beloved films of the year, to walk away empty handed. Many also feel that a win here for Kenneth Lonergan, a well respected writer who has had to pay his dues in this business pretty hard (Never forget “Margaret”), would be well deserved and is objectively the better written screenplay compared to “La La Land.” However, “La La Land” has universal love and a strong passion for it which will compel many voters to check it off down the line on their Oscar ballots. I honestly don’t know what to do here. It would be pretty incredible is a split happened here and another film won such as “Hell Or High Water” but I must make a choice so, I’m going to go against my brain here and vote with my heart and my heart says Lonergan.
PREDICTED WINNER: “Manchester By The Sea“
RUNNER UP: “La La Land“
What are your thoughts on these two categories? Are you picking the same films to win the Screenplay Oscars? Let me know in the comments below.
You can follow Matt and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars and Film on Twitter at @NextBestPicture