One of the biggest question marks of the 2026 awards race is how exactly “Bugonia” will perform on Oscar nomination morning. After all, it does not have the premise of a traditional Oscar contender. There is nothing about two men kidnapping a female CEO whom they believe to be an alien that plays like standard awards fare. Nor does it have the critical reception of Yorgos Lanthimos’s previous Oscar films; “Bugonia” boasts a mere 68 on Metacritic compared to “Poor Things‘” 88 and “The Favourite’s” 91. Even “The Lobster,” which received a Best Original Screenplay nomination at the Oscars, held an impressive 81. Lanthimos is far from an Academy darling, as equally zany films like “Kinds of Kindness” and “The Killing of a Sacred Deer” were viewed as too-far-out-there from the Greek director and simply too cold to receive any kind of awards recognition.
Yet I remain bullish on “Bugonia’s” awards chances. For one, it has undeniable cultural relevance. Yes, we see Jesse Plemons and Aidan Delvebis abduct Emma Stone, shave her head, and repeatedly attempt to get her to say she is an alien. But the film is clearly framed as a commentary on how corporations masquerade behind good intentions to bleed workers dry, how humans treat one another cruelly to further their own agendas, and how, amid all this chaos, we are destroying the earth. It may not be subtle, but there is no shortage of films with weaker critical reception that still received Best Picture nominations due to their timeliness. Satires are seemingly graded on a curve at the Oscars, considering the success of “Triangle of Sadness,” “Don’t Look Up,” and “Jojo Rabbit” despite weaker critical scores.
What those films also share, aside from their humorous approach to societal issues, is their crowd-pleasing nature. “Jojo Rabbit” won the TIFF People’s Choice award, “Don’t Look Up” is the fourth most-watched Netflix film of all time, and “Triangle of Sadness” elicited strong responses from audiences and has a solid 80% RottenTomatoes score. Admittedly, “Triangle of Sadness” is a bit of an outlier here, as the Palme d’Or winner’s Oscar success was due in no small part to its appeal to the international voting body. However, a satire’s ability to connect with audiences cannot be underestimated in terms of its awards potential. As for “Bugonia,” it has the second-highest average rating at the People’s Telluride Poll, with its 4.37 out of 5 only being under “Hamnet’s” 4.55. If it missed the Best Picture lineup this year, it would be the narrative film with the third-highest average score on this poll to do so (after “The Two Popes” and “The Attack”). If “Bugonia” continues its trajectory of enthusiastic audience reception as it expands in more theaters this upcoming weekend, I think its weaker critical scores can be overlooked. It is considered Lanthimos’s most accessible film to date, so even if its messaging may ring hollow to some critics, it has thus far resonated strongly with audiences, and it’s only fair to assume the industry could follow next.
Ultimately, “Bugonia” should have no problem landing Golden Globes nominations in Best Picture Comedy/Musical, Best Actress in a Comedy/Musical for Stone, and Best Actor in a Comedy/Musical for Plemons. A Best Adapted Screenplay nomination at WGA should also be a given, considering the number of ineligibilities there are. The true test of how widespread its appeal will be is whether it manages to land a Best Film longlist mention at BAFTA and a nomination at PGA. If it can manage these precursors, it could find its way into the Best Picture ten through sheer relevance, audience love, and residual goodwill toward Lanthimos and Stone’s creative collaboration. But if it misses either of these precursors, I do think it is possible that it gets usurped by a more traditional awards player like “Jay Kelly,” a passion pick like “No Other Choice,” or a tech juggernaut like “Avatar: Fire and Ash.” Make no mistake: should “Bugonia” miss a Best Picture nomination, it would not be due to how strange its concept is, but due to its inability to win over Academy voters who are put off by the film’s deeply cynical and at times, cruel content. Let the conspiracy theories begin!
Have you seen “Bugonia” yet? If so, what do you think of it? Do you think the Academy will take to it and put it in the Best Picture lineup? Or will it go Oscar-less like some other Yorgos Lanthimos projects have before it? Please let us know in the comments section below and on Next Best Picture’s X account and check out the team’s latest Oscar predictions here.
You can follow Amy and hear more of her thoughts on the Oscars & Film on X @AmyHayneKim
