As the New Year begins and as the major award shows and nominations near, “Conclave” is still hovering among the Best Picture frontrunners, despite more precursors going to “Anora” and “The Brutalist” so far. Nonetheless, as perhaps the most “liked” if not “loved” movie in the field, “Conclave” is still a popular pick to gain favor with industry voters and perhaps surge ahead down the stretch. However, the problem is that it needs to gain in other categories beyond Best Picture.
While most agree that “Conclave” is a safe favorite in Best Adapted Screenplay, it can’t count on being so universally liked that it can win with Best Picture and Screenplay Oscars only, as “Spotlight” did in 2015. It has to win one other major category to do the job – and there’s a case to be made that its best option is with someone only in the movie for seven-plus minutes.
Isabella Rossellini was hyped up before “Conclave’s” film festival premieres as a likely Best Supporting Actress favorite until the movie screened and her limited screen time was revealed. Yet despite that initial doubt, critics and precursor season have surged Rossellini back ahead as one of the most nominated contenders, behind the likes of Zoe Saldana, Ariana Grande, Danielle Deadwyler, and Margaret Qualley.
Those nominations haven’t translated to wins, as Rossellini’s only critics group wins to date have been a tie from the Iowa Film Critics Association and a solo win from the UK Film Critics right before New Year. That would be a big problem in most years, but perhaps not so much in a year where no one or even two contenders are winning every group. In fact, as of New Year’s Day, Grande and Saldana led the Best Supporting Actress field with only seven precursor wins each, while Qualley trailed with six and Deadwyler followed with four.
If there is a category that yields chaos when there isn’t a clear frontrunner, it is Best Supporting Actress. This is a category where Jamie Lee Curtis used a career narrative and a Best Picture winner in “Everything Everywhere All at Once” to surge late the last time the field was this divided. This is also a category where performers with only a few minutes of screen time win far more frequently than in other acting races, and where Judi Dench not only won for a few minutes in “Shakespeare in Love” but got nominated for just a few minutes in “Belfast” in 2021.
Order could come shortly from the Golden Globes and Critics Choice the next two Sundays, should Saldana, Grande or someone else win both. However, Angela Bassett won both in 2022 for “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” only for Kerry Condon to take BAFTA for “The Banshees of Inisherin” and open the door for Curtis to suddenly take command at SAG. Therefore, unless someone completely sweeps the Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTA, the race could stay wide open enough for Rossellini to pull a SAG shocker and seize control, assuming she does get nominated there.
With a veteran career narrative like Dench and Curtis had, with the added bonus of never having been Oscar-nominated, and with the recurring trend of Best Picture winners also winning a screenplay and supporting acting Oscar in the expanded era, a Rossellini Oscar upset could be the most ideal path for “Conclave” to clinch Best Picture – if not its only path.
“Conclave” may also have Edward Berger nominated for Best Director, but he is in no way a win competitive threat to the likes of Brady Corbet and Sean Baker yet. It is certain to have a lead acting nomination for Ralph Fiennes, who is just as overdue as Rossellini is and has been nominated before. Yet unlike Rossellini, Fiennes has a much more formidable field of frontrunners ahead of him in Best Actor, as Adrian Brody and Colman Domingo have split critics group wins, and Timothee Chalamet is expected to surge when industry voters weigh in. As such, even though Fiennes has been largely blanked by critic groups just like Rossellini, he doesn’t have enough on his side at the moment to rally.
By comparison, Rossellini is “Conclave’s” best shot at an above-the-line win besides Best Adapted Screenplay. Some could argue that it doesn’t need another above-the-line win to take Best Picture, much like “Spotlight” didn’t, yet “Spotlight” had far higher review scores and far more critical precursor wins to overcome that handicap. Therefore, “Conclave” is in greater need of another major win elsewhere, and it only has so many options below the line as well.
It is possible that “Conclave” could only need two technical Oscars and one above-the-line Oscar to take Best Picture, as “The Shape of Water” did in 2017, where it also won Best Director, Best Original Score, and Best Production Design. There is a chance that both Best Original Score and Best Production Design are within reach, especially since composer Volker Bertelmann just won two years ago for Berger’s “All Quiet on the Western Front.” Yet with “The Brutalist” favored in Score and “Wicked” favored in Production Design, it seems unlikely that “Conclave” could rally to win both – and winning just one of them likely won’t be enough.
There is no precedent for a film winning Best Picture, a Screenplay Oscar, and either Score or Production Design only. However, there is precedent for a film winning only Best Picture, a Screenplay Oscar, and Best Editing, as “Argo” did in 2012. Best Editing is also in play for “Conclave,” though it has to overcome the far flashier editing of films like “Anora” and “Emilia Perez,” and perhaps the editing of far bigger films like “The Brutalist” and “Dune: Part Two.” In addition, when “Argo” only needed screenplay and editing wins to take Best Picture, it still had far more critics and precursor wins than “Conclave” has now, and it swept every major award as soon as nominations came in.
As a movie that didn’t have a single Best Picture win until January 3rd, that hasn’t won any Editing or Production Design awards and has only been winning in Screenplay, “Conclave” is in a far less ideal position than the likes of “Spotlight,” “Argo” and “The Shape of Water” were at this point in the season. Therefore, if a surge toward Best Picture is possible, it has to start right now with the Golden Globes, the Critics Choice, and with BAFTA and SAG nominations – and if it doesn’t start winning Best Picture awards right away, it at least has to start winning somewhere else immediately.
As it stands, the easiest path to any other Oscar win besides Best Adapted Screenplay really seems to be for Rossellini, if only by default. Best of all, the Curtis precedent shows that she doesn’t really need to start winning until SAG unless someone like Saldana or Grande has a total industry sweep before then. Then again, Curtis at least had a couple of critics group wins before SAG, whereas even this year’s Best Supporting Actress divide hasn’t shown room for Rossellini to join in yet.
Still, Rossellini does keep racking up nominations, so just getting in and finally breaking through with her first Oscar nomination might be victory enough right now. Then, suppose musical scene-stealers Saldana and Grande keep canceling out, and other potential nominees haven’t gained enough ground to overtake them. In that case, that door might stay just the tiniest bit open for Rossellini up to SAG. And by extension, it would stay open just enough for “Conclave” to keep its Best Picture hopes alive until SAG, even if it still doesn’t have a path for any other Oscar wins besides Screenplay at that time.
Despite all this, many keep assuming that “Conclave” will avoid enough slings and arrows to be the last film standing – especially if “Anora” is too wild and crazy for conservative voters, if “The Brutalist” is too long and alienating for others, and if “Wicked” and “Emilia Perez” are just too musical to be that genre’s first Best Picture winner in decades. By a process of elimination, that would have to leave a box office success, a critically acclaimed adult drama, and a politically relevant film with an actual happy ending like “Conclave” as voters’ last best option – but that and a Screenplay Oscar alone really can’t be its entire resume.
There is still a very viable scenario where Rossellini is the best if not only hope to expand that resume, even if she loses both the Golden Globe and Critics Choice awards on January 5th and January 12th. But if she wins at least one of those awards, such as the BAFTAs and SAG, it will get a little easier for her and “Conclave” by extension. And right now, if “Conclave” really is the likely industry favorite and the least objectionable Best Picture option that many assume it is, its road is going to have to get easier in some major category very soon.
Have you seen “Conclave” yet? If so, what did you think of it? What do you think it its win-package is if it wins Best Picture? Do you believe Rossellini can win Best Supporting Actress? Please let us know in the comments below or on Next Best Picture’s X account, and be sure to check out Next Best Picture’s latest Oscar predictions here.
You can follow Robert and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars & Film on X @Robertdoc1984
