While “Spider-Man: Brand New Day” got all the headlines for its box office records this past week, “The Odyssey” also hit its most important milestones to date. It became the 16th movie ever to make over $50 million in its third weekend – and every one of the past 15 except “The Super Mario Bros Movie” has gone on to reach the $600 million domestic milestone. Even now, assuming “The Odyssey” will at least get a Best Picture nomination, it would already rank among the top 10 highest domestic-grossing Best Picture nominees ever if it never made another dollar.
Assuming that it does end up with no worse than $600 million, it would make “The Odyssey” the seventh $600+ million nominee of all time. With that future history in mind, how does “The Odyssey” already stack up against those other six nominees – and do their Oscar season paths have any connections or lessons for the months ahead?
“Avatar” – $785.2 million domestic gross
Although the “Avatar” franchise as a whole may not be the Oscar season or box office juggernaut it started as, the original remains standing as the highest-grossing Best Picture nominee of all time. In fact, if not for “The Hurt Locker,” it might have ended up as the highest-grossing Best Picture winner of all time – although James Cameron does still have that record anyway thanks to “Titanic.“
In a weird way, “The Odyssey’s” path shares the most so far with “Avatar,” which was Cameron’s first film after winning Best Picture and Best Director, just like “The Odyssey” is Nolan’s. While “Avatar” sold itself as a groundbreaking theatrical spectacle because of its advancements in 3D, “The Odyssey” is selling itself the same way as the first film shot entirely in IMAX. And in both cases, those who still have problems with it regularly cite its script and dialogue as a big reason – “The Odyssey’s” for supposedly sounding too modern/American, and “Avatar” for Cameron’s most laughable dialogue and unoriginal plot points.
Nonetheless, “Avatar” came very close to being the first film in the modern era where its director won two Best Pictures in a row, like “The Odyssey” is trying to do now. And while Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu did become the first modern director to win two Best Director Oscars in a row, which Nolan is trying to match now, Cameron might have done it years earlier if not for Kathryn Bigelow’s historic win.
“Avatar” made its billions as the last big film of 2009, but that ultimately didn’t give it enough time to completely catch “The Hurt Locker” for Best Picture and Best Director. On the other hand, “The Odyssey” is now starting out as the potential season-long frontrunner by opening in summer, which could give something else more than enough time to catch it. Yet since “The Odyssey” obviously has greater possibilities for acting and screenplay nominations, unlike the Best Picture/Best Director/tech only path of “Avatar,” will that just be one reason Nolan’s version of ancient Greece will have a better shot at history than Cameron’s Pandora?
“Top Gun: Maverick” – $721.9 million domestic
“Top Gun: Maverick” is still the largest post-pandemic movie and Best Picture nominee of the last five years. But three weekends in, “The Odyssey” has already caught up to it with an estimated $395 million after 17 days, just like “Top Gun: Maverick” had. Though if “The Odyssey” only drops off to $44 million in its fourth weekend like “Top Gun: Maverick” did, then it would be in truly rarified air.
“The Odyssey” may not be credited with “saving theaters” like “Top Gun: Maverick” did, despite giving audiences a reason to keep selling out IMAX theaters over and over as well. When awards season came, “Top Gun: Maverick” did prove it wasn’t just a tech player by getting a bonus Best Adapted Screenplay nomination. Yet Tom Cruise and Joseph Kosinski both missed for Best Actor and Best Director, while there is no way “The Odyssey” will miss out on Best Director and probably two acting nominations at minimum.
Many online fans and pundits tried to argue “Top Gun: Maverick” would eventually catch “Everything Everywhere All at Once” for Best Picture because it was just too huge, but it kept missing chances time and time again. Many will argue in the months ahead that “The Odyssey” won’t be caught because it is just too huge, and is already bigger than “Top Gun: Maverick“ in nomination potential if not box office – yet will that be proven wrong in the end too?
“Black Panther“ — $700.4 million domestic
“Black Panther“ opened even earlier than “The Odyssey“ did as a February release in 2018, and for a time it was the third biggest movie of all time. “The Odyssey“ was less an initial draw for its own story than it was for Nolan himself, just as “Black Panther“ might have been less an initial draw for a relatively new big-screen superhero than it was for the MCU at its absolute peak. However, word of mouth and Oscar buzz soon grew in ways beyond wildest expectations for both, although that is nothing new for Nolan – yet it was for Marvel.
“Black Panther“ technically crossed the comic book movie to Oscar movie barrier in ways no superhero film had done since Nolan’s “The Dark Knight,“ and actually outdid it by reaching Best Picture in an expanded field. But ultimately, like “Top Gun: Maverick“ a few years later, “Black Panther” didn’t gain much traction beyond its tech nominations, couldn’t quite get a Best Director or an acting nomination, and couldn’t even add a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination like “Top Gun: Maverick“ did.
Making history as a barrier-breaking superhero nominee and box office phenomenon were the wins for “Black Panther,” which still sets it apart from the wider MCU in more ways than one. Given that Nolan’s own personal history and Oscar success with “Oppenheimer“ is much more storied, “The Odyssey“ still won’t stand alone and above its peers in the Nolan universe like “Black Panther“ does in the MCU – but will its other peers in 2026 be another matter?
“Black Panther“ made the Best Picture field in 2018, and still lost in a year where the likes of “Vice,” “Bohemian Rhapsody“ and eventual winner “Green Book“ dragged down the standing of that year’s lineup. Presumably and hopefully, “The Odyssey“ will have a far more formidable field to deal with, but will that mean it does better or worse?
“Avatar: The Way of Water“ – $688.4 million domestic
“The Odyssey“ does share a lot with “Avatar,“ as a technologically groundbreaking film trying to win its director a second straight Best Picture and Best Director Oscar in a row. But it also kind of shares a bit with another “Avatar,“ since “Avatar: The Way of Water“ had to open against the intense shadow and box office/awards run of its immediate predecessor, just as “The Odyssey“ opened against the shadow of “Oppenheimer.“
“Avatar: The Way of Water” couldn’t surpass “Avatar“ in box office or as a win-competitive Oscar contender, and even had reviews below the relatively mild ones of “Avatar“ too. But it did still manage to get into Best Picture and be an historically high-grossing nominee, which was at least better than what its own successor “Avatar: Fire and Ash“ did three years later.
In most other ways, “Avatar: The Way of Water” couldn’t prove itself as “Avatar’s“ box office or Oscar season equal. Meanwhile, “The Odyssey“ has already gone past “Oppenheimer“ at the box office and still has equal Oscar season success in its sights.
“Titanic“ – $674.3 million domestic
Right now, the real Cameron movie that “The Odyssey“ most wants to match and surpass is “Titanic.“ Now that “The Odyssey“ has just passed the domestic box office of “The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King,“ it would go down as the second highest-grossing movie to ever win Best Picture, trailing only “Titanic“ at the moment.
Is there still a chance “The Odyssey“ can pass “Titanic,“ and get an opportunity to be the highest-grossing Best Picture ever in America? The remaining legs of “Spider-Man: Brand New Day,“ the likely upcoming dip in overall box office attendance for August and September, and the likely decline after “The Odyssey“ finally loses its IMAX screens may make that milestone extra difficult. But even if “The Odyssey“ overcomes all that and surpasses “Titanic“ anyway, it might not be the difference maker that it was back in 1997.
If being bigger than “Titanic“ was a selling point for Academy voters, it would have pushed “Avatar,” “Top Gun: Maverick“ and “Black Panther“ over the top in their years. In addition, after a year where “One Battle After Another“ may have become one of the most unprofitable Best Picture winners of all time, and wound up beating an actual profitable phenomenon in “Sinners“ anyway for one other reason or another, would it be more hypocritical to give “The Odyssey” an extra edge for any box office records a year later?
“Barbie“ – $636.2 million domestic
Nolan already proved box office wasn’t everything in 2023, when “Oppenheimer“ never reached No. 1 at theaters for a single day thanks to “Barbie.“ Yet while “Barbie“ won the financial part of the “Barbenheimer“ summer, it never seriously challenged it during the awards season part.
Without a “Barbie“ to open against “The Odyssey,“ and with “Spider-Man: Brand New Day“ not toppling it until two weeks later – and even with “The Odyssey“ still making $50+ million against one of the top two biggest opening films of all time – it’s clear “The Odyssey“ got a much easier path during its summer run. That could give it an asterisk if it does actually surpass “Barbie’s“ total domestic box office and gets an ironic bit of revenge on Nolan’s behalf, though it would still be a funny detail.
Maybe it makes more sense if “The Odyssey“ is right behind or side-by-side with “Barbie“ in the ranks of the biggest Best Picture nominees. Since the current next highest-grossing nominee ever is “Wicked“ with a mere $474.9 million, “The Odyssey“ should surpass that in a blink of an eye and have “Barbie“ in its sights soon enough, if not the likes of the Cameron films and others later.
By the time “The Odyssey’s“ box office run ends and awards season is in full swing, its domestic gross and how it ranks in history will be one of many arguments supposedly in its favor. Yet since it is about to join a group of peers that only has one eventual Best Picture winner, how much of an advantage will this really turn out to be – or will it be one more way recent trends don’t apply to this Odyssey?
Many believe Christopher Nolan’s “The Odyssey” is the frontrunner for Best Picture? Do you think its box office haul secures it a win or is the money the reward? Please let us know in the comments section below and on Next Best Picture’s X account, and check out Next Best Picture’s latest Oscar predictions here.
