Thursday, February 29, 2024

Globes Are Gonna Globe: Predicting The 2024 Golden Globe Award Winners

The Golden Globe Awards are often considered the absolute kickoff to the awards season, serving as the inaugural major televised ceremony. They provide a crucial glimpse into how industry insiders perceive the year’s films, distinct from the multitude of regional critics’ awards that typically unfold throughout December. While the Golden Globes involve critics in the voting process, their outcomes can either affirm expectations, signal a significant shift in the awards season trajectory, or inject an element of unpredictability into the season just for the sake of chaos (affectionately known as “globes gunna globe”). Here’s a breakdown of each category to offer insights into what potential winners might signify for the upcoming season.

Best Original ScoreSPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSEAll of these scores have also secured a spot on the Academy shortlist for Best Original Score, suggesting that any of them could potentially land a spot in the Oscar lineup come nomination morning. The clear frontrunner is Ludwig Göransson for his exceptional work on “Oppenheimer.” However, there is more than one formidable contender that could influence the trajectory of this race. Among them are Robbie Robertson for “Killers Of The Flower Moon,” Jerskin Fendrix for “Poor Things,” and Daniel Pemberton for “Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse.” In my opinion, the most surprising victory among these three would be “Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse.” A win in this category would demonstrate its strength within the industry, establishing itself as a strong contender in the awards season and positioning itself in competition against “Oppenheimer.” While “The Boy And The Heron” or “The Zone Of Interest” may have a chance, I believe their likelihood of winning is a bit more remote, and any victory would likely be a result of the Globes’ inclination to do something “different.”

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Awards Race Changer

Globes Gunna Globe

Best Original SongRustinIt’s almost a comical category, as the Globes have arbitrarily nominated some prominent names. Among these nominees, only four have secured a spot on the Academy shortlist for Best Original Song: the three “Barbie” songs and “Road to Freedom” from “Rustin.” However, according to academy rules, only two “Barbie” songs can be nominated. Therefore, only half of these entries can make it to the Oscars. Evidently, “What Was I Made For?” is the clear frontrunner in this category. A “Dance the Night” victory would certainly be surprising, but the most significant game-changer would be a win for “I’m Just Ken.” Such a win would signify substantial strength as a potential eventual winner at the Oscar ceremony. Additionally, if “Road to Freedom” emerges victorious, it could hint at a stronger contender than initially perceived.

Expected

  • “What Was I Made For?” – “Barbie

Awards Race Changer

  • “I’m Just Ken” – “Barbie
  • “Road to Freedom” – “Rustin

Globes Gunna Globe

Best Motion Picture – AnimatedThe Boy And The HeronSpider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse” poses a significant threat to dominate this category throughout the awards season. However, considering the critical acclaim for Miyazaki’s latest film, “The Boy And The Heron,” it also stands a chance of securing a victory in this category, potentially causing a slight shift in the tide but within an expected trajectory. The only genuine shock that could truly impact the awards race would be a win for “Elemental.” Being a formidable studio, Pixar presents intense competition, and such a win might suggest that voters are leaning toward the familiar.

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Globes Gunna Globe

Best Motion Picture – Non-English LanguageAnatomy Of A FallThree of these nominees also appear in the Best Motion Picture – Drama category, adding an extra layer of excitement to this competition. Four contenders have also secured a spot on the Academy shortlist, excluding “Past Lives,” which meets the Globes criteria but falls short of the Academy standards for this category. Similarly, “Anatomy Of A Fall” wasn’t selected as France’s international submission. The latter leads in this category, thanks to numerous nominations in other categories such as Best Screenplay, Best Drama Actress, and Best Motion Picture – Drama. “Past Lives” also received nominations in all the same categories (plus a Best Director nomination). Still, the idea of awarding an American film in a category mostly reserved for international cinema would be a typically chaotic and strange choice that the Globes might opt for. “The Zone Of Interest” currently holds the top spot in Academy predictions, leading the collective rankings on the Next Best Picture predictions page. While victories for either of these films would be anticipated and have limited impact on the race, a win for “Fallen Leaves” or “Society Of The Snow” would strongly signal potential nominations or even upsets in this category.

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Best ScreenplayPast LivesThe Golden Globes feature a single Screenplay category, unlike the Academy, which divides screenplays into Original and Adapted. In this category, there’s a balanced split between three nominated original screenplays and three adapted screenplays. Currently, Gold Derby users have “Barbie” at the forefront to win this award, which also leads the pack in the Best Adapted Screenplay category. “Oppenheimer” is a strong contender, leveraging its Best Picture potential for a screenplay win. However, after its move to Adapted was confirmed yesterday, the Next Best Picture team currently favors “Barbie” for the top spot. While there aren’t many options for the Globes to make an utterly unpredictable choice, if there were one with the least chance, it would likely be “Anatomy Of A Fall.” While it might not be a strong contender for the Best Picture win, a screenplay victory could enhance its prospects for a nomination. If “Past Lives” or “Poor Things” secures the award, it would strongly indicate a positive industry reception to these films, bolstering their overall standing in almost all categories where they have a chance at an eventual nomination.

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Best DirectorOppenheimerChristopher Nolan is long overdue for an Oscar, and his exceptional work on “Oppenheimer” is nearly a guarantee for his first win. Martin Scorsese poses as fierce competition, closely trailing with his outstanding narrative “Killers Of The Flower Moon.” It’s challenging to envision anyone else winning in this category, and any alternative victories would be a significant shock, strongly suggesting a departure from the initial industry expectations. With “Barbie” and “Poor Things” emerging as strong contenders, a win for either of their directors would create substantial ripples through this year’s awards season. Additionally, Celine Song shouldn’t be underestimated; her work on “Past Lives” has exceeded expectations in nominations, solidifying its status as a stronger contender than initially anticipated. While Bradley Cooper’s “Maestro” has received a warm welcome from industry voters, I place him in the “Globes Gunna Globe” category as a precautionary measure. It’s plausible that he may not even secure a nomination for Best Director at the Oscars, and the Globes’ recognition could be an attempt to gain clout or perhaps “make up” for his work on “A Star is Born” in 2018.

Expected

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Globes Gunna Globe

Best Supporting ActressDa’Vine Joy Randolph has swept the critics’ awards in the last month, and the Globes are poised to either affirm the winning streak or veer in a different direction. If a shift were to occur, many anticipate Danielle Brooks, reprising her Tony Award-winning role in “The Color Purple,” as the likely recipient. The only potential surprise in this category would be a victory for Emily Blunt, a notion I cautiously place in the “Awards Race Changer” category. The Globes have a known affinity for Blunt, making it challenging to discern if her potential win would be based on their predisposition or her performance in “Oppenheimer.” The other nominees in this category are established Globe favorites, and while their performances in their respective films are commendable, winning the trophy on the awards evening should be approached with a degree of skepticism.

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Globes Gunna Globe

Best Supporting ActorBest Supporting Actor is one of the more challenging categories of the evening to predict. While the expected top six all secured spots in the final nomination lineup, determining the eventual winner proves to be a daunting task. Currently, it’s anticipated to go one of two ways, with either Robert Downey Jr. for “Oppenheimer” or Ryan Gosling for “Barbie.” Downey Jr. appears to be leading at the moment, but there’s a plausible scenario where Gosling clinches the award, potentially setting the stage for an Oscar win as well. Charles Melton has garnered positive attention for his performance in “May December,” and a Globe win for him would undoubtedly be surprising. For Melton, a “Riverdale” alum, an Oscar nomination itself would be a significant achievement, and extending his critics’ award success to industry awards would carry substantial weight. Mark Ruffalo is predicted to secure the fourth slot at the Oscars (per the NBP Team predictions), so a win here could significantly enhance his chances of an Oscar victory. If the Globes opt for industry veterans De Niro or Dafoe, it might be perceived as a pursuit of fame once again, a tendency they are already known for. While De Niro is almost assured of an Oscar nomination for his role in “Killers Of The Flower Moon,” and Dafoe is highly likely to secure a spot in the lineup as well, a win might seem a bit unexpected for either of them.

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Globes Gunna Globe

Best Actress – Musical or ComedyPoor ThingsThe lead acting categories offer the most intriguing possibilities for a significant shift in the race, featuring a few clear frontrunners and ample potential for shocks and surprises. Emma Stone is currently leading the predictions for the Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy category. This makes sense, given that many pundits believe she has a strong chance of eventually winning the Oscar (currently in NBP’s predicted number two slot). However, “Barbie” has garnered considerable attention with nominations, and being the Globes, Margot Robbie also stands a good chance of winning. Robbie has also secured a nomination at the Critics’ Choice Awards, which features six slots compared to the Oscar’s five. If she wins this award, the critical question is whether it simply secures Robbie’s nomination or puts her in contention to win the Oscar altogether. I personally lean toward the former, but a win here could significantly impact the trajectory of the race. Additionally, Fantasia Barrino is on the bubble for a nomination for her film. “The Color Purple” underperformed a bit in its nomination tally, failing to secure a Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy nomination, a category in which it seemed guaranteed. Like Robbie, I believe a win for Barrino here would strengthen her for an eventual Oscar nomination, but her potential to shake up the category should not be underestimated.

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Globes Gunna Globe

Best Actress – DramaThe news that Lily Gladstone would campaign in the Lead Actress category instead of supporting was initially met with skepticism. However, the switch has not negatively impacted her overall campaign. Currently the frontrunner in this category and the preferred Oscar favorite, Gladstone is a formidable force for her role in “Killers Of The Flower Moon.” Nevertheless, it’s crucial to acknowledge that Carey Mulligan was the long-anticipated winner for her performance in Cooper’s sophomore film, “Maestro.” Here’s how Carey Mulligan can still win for “Promising Young Woman” — I mean, “Maestro” — whether seen as a “make-up” award or an overdue recognition, depending on one’s perspective.

Sandra Hüller also presents a threat for “Anatomy Of A Fall.” The Globes have a history of recognizing foreign performances, as seen with Isabelle Huppert for “Elle” in 2017, which significantly boosted her to an eventual Oscar nomination. With Greta Lee on the cusp of an Oscar nomination, a win here could similarly elevate her chances. Finally, after Cailee Spaeny won the Best Actress prize at the Venice Film Festival, the Golden Globes provide an opportunity to gauge if she is indeed a credible threat for a Best Actress nomination, despite not receiving a Critics’ Choice Award nomination.

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Globes Gunna Globe

  • Annette Bening – Nyad

Best Actor – Musical or ComedyAmerican FictionIn the leading performances on the actors’ side, the Musical or Comedy category realistically features two strong contenders: Paul Giamatti for “The Holdovers” and Jeffrey Wright for “American Fiction.” Considering that Giamatti is in a more favorable position to secure an Oscar nomination over Wright (still in NBP’s top five), Giamatti emerges as the more likely candidate to win this award. However, given that “The Holdovers” underperformed slightly by not securing nominations for Screenplay or Director, Wright could potentially capitalize on this and take home the trophy.

American Fiction” has been an unexpected addition to the awards race, particularly since its People’s Choice win at the Toronto Film Festival. This could provide valuable insights into its true strength as a contender, perhaps reminiscent of “CODA” a few years ago—an uplifting option that could emerge as a dark horse for top honors. While there’s always the chance that the Globes might want to spotlight Timothée Chalamet or acknowledge “Air” in some capacity, a win in those scenarios wouldn’t necessarily significantly impact their overall awards potential. If anything, it might only diminish the hopes of both Giamatti and Wright in securing eventual nominations.

Expected

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Globes Gunna Globe

Best Actor – DramaMaestroIn Bradley Cooper’s endeavor, “Maestro,” where he took on the roles of director, producer, and lead actor, this category emerges as the most compelling option to honor his multifaceted contribution. Long overdue for an Oscar, Cooper’s captivating performance in “Maestro” stands out as the frontrunner, leading the predictions on the site to win the category overall. However, the presence of Cillian Murphy in “Oppenheimer” should not be underestimated. Portraying a strong and significant leading role in a potential Best Picture winner, Murphy poses close and formidable competition for Cooper—a contender worth monitoring closely as the season unfolds.

The category is also populated by other Oscar hopefuls, including Colman Domingo for “Rustin,” Barry Keoghan for “Saltburn,” and Andrew Scott for “All Of Us Strangers.” Among them, only Domingo secured a Critics Choice nomination, but a victory for any of these three would position them firmly to shake up this category. With an assumed top five maintaining prominence throughout much of the preseason predictions, the commencement of industry awards here could significantly reshape our expectations for this race, making it a notably more captivating category.

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Globes Gunna Globe

Best Motion Picture – Musical or ComedyWhile “Barbie” is the frontrunner in predictions for this category on Gold Derby, it’s crucial not to underestimate other contenders like “Poor Things” or “American Fiction.” With a relatively new voting body, the Globes might opt for a more artistic approach and honor “Poor Things” with this prize, showcasing its potential strength. Alternatively, this could serve as an opportunity to highlight the robust qualities of “American Fiction” as a contender for the ultimate Best Picture prize on Oscar evening.

Including “Air” in this category was somewhat anticipated, but the notion that it could secure a win seems almost comical. “May December” performed well in its nomination haul, yet placing it in the Musical or Comedy category appears to be a peculiar choice. Additionally, I’ve placed “The Holdovers” in the “Globes Gunna Globe” section, as excluding it from the screenplay and director categories only to declare it the winner in this category appears outright absurd—not due to a lack of awards merit, but because of the unconventional decision-making.

Expected

Awards Race Changer

Globes Gunna Globe

Best Motion Picture – DramaOppenheimerFinally, this category presents the most substantial opportunity to provide insights into how the eventual awards race might unfold. Is “Oppenheimer” truly the frontrunner, as widely believed, or do some of these other films have a more robust chance of securing the top prize on March 10th? It’s crucial to recognize that Best Picture aligns with the Golden Globes only about half the time, so the winner in either of the Best Motion Picture categories might not necessarily foreshadow anything. While “Oppenheimer” appears to be the strongest contender, especially given Christopher Nolan’s potential in the Director category, a surprise win for “Killers Of The Flower Moon” is not out of the question. Furthermore, a victory for “Maestro” could dramatically alter the race in an unexpected direction, as could a win for “Past Lives,” propelling both into the spotlight as formidable contenders rather than on the bubble in many categories.

The inclusion of two non-English language films in this category is particularly noteworthy and adds excitement to the otherwise conventionally unconventional Globes. However, the prospect of either “Anatomy Of A Fall” or “The Zone Of Interest” winning, especially when they are likely to triumph in their respective Non-English Language Film category, seems somewhat improbable.

Expected

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Globes Gunna Globe

What do you think will win at the Golden Globes this weekend? Please let us know in the comments section below or on Next Best Picture’s Twitter account. Stay tuned for Next Best Picture’s predictions tomorrow (you can listen to some of their predictions here). Also, please check out their latest Oscar predictions here and the 2023 precursor awards tally here.

You can follow Tyler and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars & Film on Twitter at @tylerjon7

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