Analyzing The Surprise Oscar Wins Of The 98th Academy Awards

With the presentation of the 98th Academy Awards, we can officially put a bow on the film year of 2025. For the most part, this was an uncharacteristically predictable Oscars, with many awards lovers getting the majority of their guesses correct (this author accurately predicted 21 out of 24 categories, not that I’m bragging!). Still, there are always wins that deviate from the betting odds, so let’s take a look at the few arguable surprises and look into how they may have happened.

Best Supporting Actress

Although the ultimate champion, Amy Madigan (“Weapons“), was widely predicted, she was far from a unanimous guess, with many putting their chips on BAFTA-winner Wunmi Mosaku (“Sinners“) or Golden Globe champion Teyana Taylor (“One Battle After Another“). Madigan went into the Oscars with trophies from the first and last televised awards shows: the Critics’ Choice and Actor Awards, respectively. Still, even with those important accolades (especially the highly predictive Actor Award, voted on by her peers in SAG-AFTRA), the fact that she was the lone nominee for her film, which also happened to be the only non-Best Picture nominee in the category, meant she was up against difficult odds.

The last performer in any category to win as their film’s only nomination was Julianne Moore for 2014’s “Still Alice,“ and she swept the precursor awards, making her win practically assured by the time the Oscars were handed out. Furthermore, “Weapons“ is purely a horror film, a genre the Academy has historically shown the most disrespect for.

Still, Madigan’s performance is already iconic; she’s created an indelible villain who will likely stand as the most memorable of all of 2025’s film characters (just look at how many Halloween costumes she inspired). Her work was the biggest talking point for audiences walking out of “Weapons,“ especially because Madigan was completely hidden from the film’s marketing, making her appearance a total surprise for the first batch of viewers. Plus, her delightful speeches at the CCA and Actor Awards likely made her peers excited to vote for her, many of whom have likely worked with or encountered Madigan in her decades-long career.

Best Documentary Feature

This was arguably the most difficult category of the night to predict. Best Documentary Feature is always tricky, but this year, there was no clear frontrunner all season. “The Perfect Neighbor“ seemed poised to be a strong contender following stellar reviews out of the Sundance Film Festival. This was solidified after it won the Critics Choice Documentary Award for Best Documentary Feature. Now, this is a uniquely tricky award to win. Some past winners, such as “Jane,” “Won’tYou Be My Neighbor?,” “Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie,” “Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story,“ and “Will & Harper“ (those last two tied at the 2024 ceremony) failed even to receive nominations from the Academy Awards. Notably, the few documentaries that won at this precursor (“O.J.: Made in America“ and “Summer of Soul“) and subsequently received Oscar nominations both went on to win that top prize. “The Perfect Neighbor“ has broken this mini-streak. After its Critics’ Choice win, it struggled to secure major precursors, losing at both the Producers Guild Awards to the non-Oscar-nominated “My Mom Jayne“ and at the BAFTAs to eventual Oscar-winner “Mr. Nobody Against Putin.” It’s likely the race was close, but given that the only major guild award to go to an Oscar nominee was the BAFTA, it can be argued that the subject matter of “Mr. Nobody Against Putin“ appealed more to the now-sizable international voting bloc of the Academy. 

Best Casting 

Because this was the first time that this category was ever presented at the Oscars, the winner was always going to be a surprise. With no history to base predictions on or trends to track, technically, any prediction was justified. However, the vast majority of predictions landed on “Sinners“ due to its esteemed ensemble of actors and its victory at the Casting Society of America Awards. However, the eventual Best Picture winner, “One Battle After Another,” was ultimately the first ever Oscar winner for Best Casting. Notably, its casting director, Cassandra Kulukundis, wasn’t eligible for the Casting Society’s award, so it’s impossible to know how she may have performed at that precursor. Is this the beginning of a trend where Best Casting aligns with Best Picture? Only time will tell, and it’s likely to be several years before Oscar obsessives have the data necessary to accurately predict this category.

Best Cinematography

On the other hand, many made confident guesses that Best Cinematography would go to Michael Bauman for his VistaVision camerawork on “One Battle After Another.“ Paul Thomas Anderson’s film swept the major cinematography prizes, including the BAFTA, British Society of Cinematographers, and American Society of Cinematographers awards. The last film to win those major precursors and not take home the Oscar was 2001’s “The Man Who Wasn’t There,“ a lone nominee that lost to the juggernaut that was “The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring.“ Still, “Sinners“ led the regional critics’ awards for Best Cinematography, thanks to its effective use of 65mm film, shot on both IMAX and Ultra Panavision 70 cameras. Ultimately, Autumn Durald Arkapaw won the Oscar for “Sinners,“ becoming the first woman ever to win Best Cinematography. Thus, this became the last non-gendered category at the Academy Awards to award a female nominee finally. 

Best Live Action Short Film

The short film categories are almost always difficult to predict, and this year was no exception. Although nearly all major Oscar pundits correctly predicted “All the Empty Rooms“ to win Best Documentary Short, the other two shorts categories went in unexpected directions. In fact, Best Live Action Short ended with a result that truly nobody could’ve called: a tie! The arguable favorite before the ceremony was “Two People Exchanging Saliva,“ which many felt would appeal to Academy voters because of its impressive craft elements (including black-and-white cinematography), comparatively large scope, and memorable title. Its paired victor was “The Singers,“ which was likely helped by its backing from Netflix, which wins at least one of these shorts categories most years (they were also behind “All the Empty Rooms“). In addition, the gorgeous 35mm cinematography and charming story clearly helped it stand out to voters. 

This year, the Academy put a new system in place that forced Academy voters to declare that they’d seen all of the nominees in each category before voting. Of course, nothing was stopping any of them from lying (besides a little something called a conscience). Still, nearly every one of the anonymous Oscar ballots published showed voters abstaining from the shorts categories due to not having watched them. Therefore, it’s likely that a comparatively small number of Academy members actually voted for the shorts awards, making a tie ever so slightly more likely than in any of the feature categories, although still very improbable.

Best Animated Short Film

Anecdotally, there were justifiable predictions for all five of the nominated animated shorts from various outlets. Still, most seemed to land on either the gorgeously hand-painted “Butterfly,“ the equally comedic and moving “Retirement Plan,“ or the ultimate victor, “The Girl Who Cried Pearls.“ The winning animated short told the most complete story of all the nominees, essentially following the structure of a traditional children’s fable, which almost certainly aided its path to the win. In addition, its eerie, beautiful stop-motion helped it stand out from the pack. As always, the shorts categories are where Oscar watchers’ betting pools are made or broken, and this specific category is what likely helped most spectator champions come out on top. 

Did you correctly predict any of these surprise wins? Please let us know in the comments section below or on Next Best Picture’s X account. Click here for the final tally of awards season winners, and here for Next Best Picture’s podcast reactions episode to the ceremony last night.