Once upon a time, Coralie Fargeat’s “The Substance” pumped up the minds of film festival goers, from its world premiere in Cannes to the midnight madness screening in Toronto. Mere months ago, it seemed too good to be true that Fargeat’s bold, absolutely bonkers vision would go the distance with Oscar recognition, especially given how often the Academy overlooks horror-adjacent stories. Early conversations about the film’s chances focused on a Best Makeup and Hairstyling play for the awe-inspiring design of Monstro Elisasue, not to mention all the layered artistry leading up to the creature’s New Year’s Eve reveal. The passionate buzz amongst critics also started building for Demi Moore’s performance as Elisabeth Sparkle, whose journey of self-worth against the toxic measure of impossible beauty standards has struck a chord.
That passion has crossed over into televised award season, as Moore recently won the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Comedy or Musical. The casting of Moore, who has been in this profession for over 45 years and whose win marked her first major individual acting award, echoes the film’s thematic resonance of women being devalued once they reach a certain age. This win gives her a major edge in the Best Actress race and solidifies the film as an underdog contender. “The Substance” began as a makeup play, but there was always a far more powerful narrative underneath, driven by palpable and deeply relatable emotion. Will the Academy go outside the box and embrace “The Substance” in more categories than initially expected? Outside of Best Makeup and Hairstyling, I look closer at key categories where the film’s chances sparkle.
Best Actress
The narrative:
“I celebrate this as a marker […] for the gift of doing something that I love and being reminded that I do belong.”
Demi Moore’s Golden Globe speech for “The Substance” is the kind of moment that can strike a reverberating chord this award season. Moore clearly defines what the win means to her, not only in the context of this film but also in her career, which began to soar in the 1990s. Following the cultural phenomenon and box office success of 1990’s “Ghost,” the highest-grossing film of that year, Moore had one hit after another with 1992’s “A Few Good Men,” 1993’s “Indecent Proposal,” and 1994’s “Disclosure.” With 1996’s “Striptease,” she became the highest-paid actress in Hollywood; her earnings helped to change the attitudes around gender disparity at that time. However, with Moore’s commercial success came preconceived notions about her capabilities of being acknowledged for her work. During her Golden Globes speech, she mentioned a producer once called her a “popcorn actress.” The role of Elisabeth Sparkle in “The Substance” afforded Moore an incredible opportunity to transcend expectations and play her most uniquely complex lead character in years.
This win is a marker of Moore’s talent, in addition to the film’s messages around how women are perceived through a male gaze, and how women buy into the idealized “better” version of themselves. The “getting ready” scene alone is a conversation starter that has found life outside the film. Elisabeth’s relevant journey in the story can resonate with many of Moore’s peers, who have also experienced the uphill battle of finding interesting roles as older women in an image-obsessed industry. That Moore is in this position of winning her first major acting award, at her age, for a film unapologetically unsubtle about ageism amongst many other themes, is a compelling narrative. As momentum and goodwill continue to build, the Golden Globe win feels like the beginning of something more, rather than a one-and-done moment. That sense of goodwill can carry over into the SAG Awards, where she just received her first individual acting nomination.
The statistics:
Physical transformations have emerged as a recent trend in Oscar-winning performances. Over the last 15 years, seven films that won Best Makeup and Hairstyling also won for acting, including three in the Best Actress category (Meryl Streep in “The Iron Lady,” Jessica Chastain in “The Eyes of Tammy Faye,” and Emma Stone in “Poor Things”). The frontrunner status of “The Substance” in makeup bodes well for this acting trend to potentially continue. It helps that, underneath the exhilarating, mostly practical artistry, led by Special Makeup Effects Designer and Supervisor Pierre Olivier Persin, is Moore’s fearlessness in going there. The rage and sadness from watching Elisabeth fall deeper into self-loathing are the driving forces that shape the horror-fueled effects.
In the context of critics’ groups, Moore is currently the third-most awarded Best Actress contender. She follows Marianne Jean-Baptiste for “Hard Truths,” in second place (who has the trifecta of NYFCC, LAFCA, and NSFC), and Mikey Madison for “Anora,” in first. Of course, the Golden Globes being the first televised award show still leaves room for contenders to shift with momentum. In Moore’s corner, she has a highly publicized boost from the start, which gives her narrative time to build. Additionally, over the last 20 years, eight of the Golden Globe winners for Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy went on to receive Oscar nominations. Five went on to win the Oscar, including Stone for “Poor Things” last year and Michelle Yeoh for “Everything Everywhere All at Once” the year before.
Best Supporting Actress
As Sue, Elisabeth’s younger and “better” version, Margaret Qualley complements Moore’s performance. The two must switch bodies every seven days, but Sue finds difficulty respecting the balance, as she’s enjoying all the opportunities her older self stopped receiving. As the film’s narration often reminds us (and the characters), Sue and Elisabeth are one. The film splits Elisabeth’s inner fight within herself into two roles, and Qualley is the other half who brings a bonkers journey to life. She balances Sue’s confidence, naïveté, and manipulation while understanding Fargeat’s stylized, highly observational presentation of Sue’s image. Qualley has emerged as a buzzy contender, showing up mostly where needed thus far with nominations at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards. Sue would not exist without Elisabeth; while the idea of “You are one” could extend to Qualley and Moore on Oscar nomination morning, the former missing a SAG nomination suggests that Moore on her own is a far more powerful narrative.
Going back 15 years, there’s always at least one Best Supporting Actress nominee whose film did not receive a Best Picture nomination. This year’s Oscar race could mostly repeat the Golden Globes lineup (Zoe Saldaña, Ariana Grande, Felicity Jones, and Isabella Rossellini, each representing a lock in Best Picture), with the fifth slot a toss-up. Or, we could see a few exciting surprises, as we did with the SAG Award nominations today. SAG-nominated contenders such as Danielle Deadwyler for “The Piano Lesson” or even Jamie Lee Curtis for “The Last Showgirl” could better fit the Academy’s trend in the category, especially if “The Substance” gains momentum in Best Picture.
Best Original Screenplay
While not high on wins, Fargeat is a consistent presence among precursors for her “magical, bold, courageous, out-of-the-box, absolutely bonkers script,” as Moore put it at the Golden Globes. Following the glow of winning Best Screenplay at the 2024 Cannes Film Festival, Fargeat’s fully realized vision has captured the zeitgeist. This level of impact can help to transcend how often the Academy overlooks horror-adjacent stories. The story stands out in how Fargeat roots body horror in the real world, examining the frustrations women constantly go through about the ingrained notion of never being good enough. The themes are presented in a groundbreaking, unforgettable way.
The Academy loves an offbeat original screenplay, and no other major contender this year fits the bill more than “The Substance.” It has the unique boldness that we’ve come to see a lot of in this category, from winners “Everything Everywhere All at Once” and “Get Out” to nominees “The Lobster” and “Nightcrawler.” Thus far, Fargeat’s screenplay has received Golden Globe and Critics Choice Award nominations. Plus, there is an argument to be made that the Best Screenplay win for “Conclave” at the Golden Globes, which so often favors original over adapted, suggests that top contenders “Anora” and “The Brutalist” might be a little vulnerable in the category. If “The Substance” can maintain steam at upcoming award telecasts, and gain momentum towards Best Picture and Best Director nominations, and if there’s a surge in wanting to award Fargeat along the way, Best Original Screenplay would be the likeliest opportunity to do so.
Best Picture
The narrative for “The Substance” in Best Picture and Best Director can find a boost with the Directors Guild of America (DGA) and Producers Guild of America (PGA) Award nominations this week. Best Picture seems to be the likelier Oscar nomination, given the less direct competition and how far the film has been able to cross over into mass appeal. Additionally, the film’s relevant subject matter has led to a passionate backing and a pop culture phenomenon. While “The Substance” missed the American Film Institute (AFI)’s top 10 of the year, this wouldn’t be the first time a film absent from AFI went on to receive a Best Picture nomination, Justine Triet’s “Anatomy of a Fall” and Jonathan Glazer’s “The Zone of Interest” being the most recent examples.
Best Director
Once upon a time, Fargeat in Best Director felt too good to be true. While Best Director arguably seems like the film’s most “on the bubble” category, some might be underestimating how Fargeat can go. She currently ranks third in most precursor wins, following Denis Villeneuve in second place and Golden Globe winner Brady Corbet in first. Additionally, Fargeat has the boost of Golden Globe and Critics Choice Award nominations and made the BAFTAs’ Best Director longlist showing early strength. Passion votes for Moore can also extend to Fargeat for creating the resonant character of Elisabeth Sparkle and putting an insanely bold visual language up on the screen. If Fargeat makes the Oscar lineup, she would be the ninth woman in history to be nominated for Best Director, and most likely the only woman in the category this year.
Overall Reception
For a film that has captured the zeitgeist through critical acclaim and box office success, does the quartet of Best Actress, Best Supporting Actress, Best Original Screenplay, and Best Makeup & Hairstyling seem incomplete? Do nominations for Best Picture and Best Director feel imminent? Are we overdue for another horror-adjacent film doing well? With the Golden Globes as our only televised award show thus far, it’s early enough for the film’s chances to rise, especially in categories that feel on the bubble.
There’s also the question of whether “The Substance” can over-perform in more competitive below-the-line categories. While not making noise in certain areas (Best Cinematography and Best Costume Design), the film can find unexpected strength in places where the vision is showier in comparison (Best Editing and Best Production Design). The BAFTA nominations, to be announced on January 15, will shed more light on the enthusiasm around Fargeat’s bold vision. It bodes well that the film made BAFTA’s longlist in 11 categories (including Best Film and Best Director). Depending on how the film performs with BAFTA nominations, we could find ourselves quite a few steps closer to “The Substance” being a major across-the-board Oscar contender.
How many nominations do you think “The Substance” will receive? Do you think it could win any Oscars? Please let us know in the comments below or on Next Best Picture’s X account, and be sure to check out Next Best Picture’s latest Oscar predictions here.