If you want to get an adult drama off the ground in the modern film industry, wrapping it up in the guise of a music biopic isn’t a bad way to give it some momentum. After “Straight Outta Compton” and “Bohemian Rhapsody,” the music biopic emerged from its slumber as a new box office juggernaut. Recently, “Elvis” became a box office smash and an Oscar darling, while 2023 and 2024 were full of movies like “Maestro,” “Bob Marley: One Love,“ and “Back to Black.“ Next year is also crammed to the brim with these kinds of films, with even more in development. Given the ubiquity of these titles and their past Oscar successes (howdy “Walk the Line”), it’s only inevitable to wonder: Will any 2024 music biopics become Oscar darlings?
Certainly, the year has plenty of options to choose from, including some truly unorthodox takes on the music biopic domain. “Piece by Piece,“ for instance, explores the life of Pharrell Williams through an animated Lego world. The narrative scope (following Williams from childhood to stardom) is firmly within the music biopic realm. Having everything told via Lego bricks, though, that’s more unusual. Given its animated feature, “Piece by Piece“ will inherently be limited in its Oscar potential. However, don’t count out this production from possibly getting a Best Original Song nomination, given that the Williams tune “Happy“ previously got recognized in this category.
Speaking of unusual, there’s also the Robbie Williams biopic, “Better Man,“ which reimagines the English musician as a CG chimpanzee. It’s a bold move that’s already garnered some divisive (though also some deeply euphoric) responses from critics after its fall film festival premiere. “Better Man“ may end up being “too weird“ or ribald for Academy voters, while the relative obscurity of Williams in America won’t help the feature stand out. Still, domestic distributor Paramount’s got supreme confidence in “Better Man,“ as seen by its August 2024 Telluride debut. Don’t count out a crowdpleaser music biopic, especially one taking these big swings. Plus, given its digital leading man, “Better Man“ could end up being a shoo-in for a Best Visual Effects Oscar nomination.
Getting more reactions after its fall film festival premiere is another late 2024 music biopic: “Maria.“ This Angelina Jolie feature is helmed by Pablo LarraÃn, a filmmaker whose works have become something close to recurring fixtures at the Oscars in recent years. Generally reserved notices for “Maria,“ though, could keep it from scoring a slew of Academy Award nominations, even with domestic distributor Netflix footing an inevitably costly For Your Consideration campaign. Jolie, though, will be a contender for Best Actress, while Edward Lachman has a shot at a Best Cinematography Oscar nomination. Like “Better Man,” “Maria“ is one 2024 music biopic that would be foolish to discount already.
If there’s any significant potential Oscar contender among this year’s music biopics, it’s James Mangold’s Bob Dylan feature, “A Complete Unknown.“ All the ingredients, conceptually, are here for the Oscars to respond greatly to “Unknown.“ Dylan is a famous figure recognizable from the youth of many older Oscar voters. Timothée Chalamet is well-liked by the Academy, as seen by his previous “Call Me by Your Name“ Oscar nomination. Then, there’s the fact that the last big Mangold music biopic, “Walk the Line,“ scored a slew of Academy Award nominations and even a big win for Reese Witherspoon. However, no amount of Oscar-friendly ingredients can guarantee a film Oscar glory. Award-season observers won’t know “A Complete Unknown’s“ chances until the film screens at the end of this year. Searchlight Pictures allegedly won’t bring “A Complete Unknown“ to the film festival circuit. Instead, the studio is rolling out the film like a general theatrical release rather than an arthouse feature with months of advanced showings. That could suggest Searchlight’s tremendous confidence in the film’s box office potential, as further seen by its prime Christmas Day release date.
“A Complete Unknown” will be the last major movie of the 2024-2025 award season left unseen. Its title is fitting – it’ll be a wild card until the very last minute. There’s certainly promise here for it to become an Oscar champion, but that’ll all depend on the quality of the movie itself. For now, what is clear is that there aren’t a bunch of other revered music biopics crowding “A Complete Unknown” out of the Best Picture category. If “Unknown” gets some real hype behind it, it’ll be the only 2024 music biopic making a real run at the biggest Academy Awards category.
The sheer ubiquity of these films and their proximity to award season once again suggest how critically important music biopics have become for Hollywood studios. While these weren’t chopped liver before 2018, “Bohemian Rhapsody“reaffirmed these films’ box office and award-season potential. Most importantly, “Bohemian Rhapsody“ accomplished everything without much in the way of critical praise. In an increasingly precarious theatrical marketplace, studio executives are undoubtedly salivating over the notion of “foolproof“ movies aimed at adults like music biopics.
Even if none of this year’s music biopics go on to score Best Picture Oscar nominations, there’s no way this genre is going to vanish from the theatrical landscape anytime soon. So many more of these are on the way in 2025 and 2026. Studios are committed to this form for the foreseeable future, which means these movies will continue to be significant award-season players. We’ll know soon if this year’s crop of “Walk the Line“ successors like “Better Man“ and “A Complete Unknown“ can live up to the sizeable awards legacy of other titles – or if they’ll hit an awkward flat note in their pursuits for Oscar gold.
Which of this year’s music biopics do you think is most likely to get some Oscar love? What’s your favorite music biopic from this year? Please let us know in the comments below or on Next Best Picture’s X account and be sure to check out Next Best Picture’s latest Oscar predictions here.
You can follow Lisa and hear more of her thoughts on the Oscars & Film on her portfolio here
