The 2025 Oscar nominations will be remembered for a lot of various reasons, yet it might be remembered forever for one of the most historic achievements ever. “Sinners” not only led the 2025 Oscar nominations, but it led all nominations for every film in history with a record-setting 16 mentions, shattering the record beyond what most had dared to project it would.
Beyond that, there are several other reasons why “Sinners” sent shockwaves throughout the Academy, both for this year and perhaps beyond.
“Sinners” Didn’t Need A New Category To Set A New Record
Even among those who projected “Sinners“ to get more than 14 nominations, the most they gave it was 15. As such, it opened the door to suggest “Sinners“ would have only set the record because the new Best Casting category got it the 15th nomination it needed. However, no one can use that to put an asterisk on the record now.
Take away Best Casting, and “Sinners“ still would have had 15 nominations and the record in any other year. Whether it was Delroy Lindo who put it over the top with the 15th non-Best Casting nomination, or a matter of Ryan Coogler, Michael B. Jordan, and Wunmi Mosaku holding onto theirs, it still made for a haul that didn’t need any extra help from any new category. And if “Sinners“ could do that without such an asterisk, it would say even more than the actual record itself.
“Sinners“ Overperformed While Almost Everything Else Underperformed
It was one thing for “Sinners“ to overperform as they did historically. But for one reason or another, it stood out even more because almost everything else in its path missed something big – even its arch-rival “One Battle After Another.”
“Sinners“ made history all by itself because “One Battle After Another“ fell one nomination short of tying the old all-time record, all due to Chase Infiniti missing the record-tying 14th nomination for one reason or another. Beyond that, nearly every other top-tier contender had at least one major snub, as “Hamnet“ had Paul Mescal miss, “Frankenstein” couldn’t get Guillermo del Toro in for Best Director, “Marty Supreme” couldn’t get any of its Best Supporting Actress contenders in, and “Bugonia“ had Emma Stone as its only acting nominee while Jesse Plemons missed.
Aside from “Sinners,“ the only major movie to get every nomination it was hoping for and more was “Sentimental Value,” with its surprise bonus nominations for Best Editing and for Elle Fanning. Besides that, “Sinners“ stood alone among its peers in having a morning where it didn’t miss one single thing.
More Than A Few Trends Were Broken
From the moment “Sinners“ was taken seriously as a true contender and not just a blockbuster, various ghosts were attached to it. Skeptics didn’t just cite the long history of Black-led/made movies and genre movies underperforming with the Academy. Still, more recent snubs for major blockbusters in major categories – like Denis Villeneuve and Greta Gerwig’s Best Director misses for their recent WB blockbusters, and Margot Robbie’s Best Actress snub for “Barbie“ after making all the big precursors.
To that end, predicted snubs for Coogler, Jordan, and the other actors were sprinkled around right until the final moment. And yet, unlike Villeneuve and Gerwig, Coogler was right there in Best Director as he has been all season, while Jordan stayed right there in Best Actor, too. As such, “Sinners” hasn’t just become a high-water mark that shows Black-led and made movies can overachieve with the Academy, but also shows that not every blockbuster turned Oscar contender has to have major nominations snatched away at the very end, too.
The Academy Now Has Much More To Reckon With If “Sinners“ Underperforms Later
Those hoping for “Sinners“ to upset “One Battle After Another“ for Best Picture have taken some hits lately, with “Sinners“ winning only two minor Golden Globes and “One Battle After Another“ winning the early major precursors as predicted. And yet now that “Sinners“ has beaten “One Battle After Another“ on nomination morning in far bigger ways than projected, hope has arisen again.
At the very least, the Academy will have put a major bullseye on its back – one even bigger than first projected as well – if it has “Sinners“ break the nomination record by a bigger margin than anyone dared to dream, only to relegate it to also-ran status when it comes to wins. Suffice to say, an underperformance of wins like at the Golden Globes will not do, or at least it will be something the Academy will not hear the end of for a long time.
Yet with more categories than the Golden Globes, “Sinners” isn’t expected to top out with only two wins. In fact, it will probably be favored for four wins in Best Original Screenplay, Best Casting, Best Score, and Best Cinematography at a minimum. However, that would still have it winning only 25% of its nominations, which would still be a rather low number compared to other films that have had 13 nominations or more.
“Emilia Pérez“ only won two Oscars after leading 2024 with 13 nominations, but that was torn apart by critics and controversy well before Oscar night, in a way “Sinners“ likely won’t have to deal with. Otherwise, films with 13 nominations or more usually win more than four Oscars, and the three films that “Sinners“ beat out for the all-time record in “Titanic,” “All About Eve,“ and “La La Land“ all won six or more.
If “Sinners“ becomes the exception by a fairly convincing margin, and still becomes an afterthought in beating out “One Battle After Another“ for Best Picture even after all this, it will be a very glaring outcome that showed the Academy was merely willing to make history – and ignore their past prejudices – only to a point and only until it actually counted the most.
Best Casting Might Actually Make A Difference In The End After All
As noted earlier, Best Casting cannot be used as an asterisk against “Sinners,“ since it would have gotten the nomination record without this extra category. However, this brand-new field could now have some greater significance down the line.
“Sinners“ has most everything it needs for a Best Picture winning package to challenge “One Battle After Another,” except a potential solo acting win. While “One Battle After Another“ could sweep the Supporting categories or even still have Leonardo DiCaprio threaten Timothee Chalamet in Best Actor, “Sinners“ has acting nominees in Jordan, Lindo, and Mosaku who are, actually, longshots to win. There’s a slight chance that Mosaku threatens Taylor in Best Supporting Actress, now that Amy Madigan is the solo nominee for the “Weapons“ and “Sentimental Value“ duo. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas and Elle Fanning will likely split their votes. Still, Mosaku would need a BAFTA or SAG upset to make that happen.
The lack of hope for an acting win is the one big hole “Sinners“ has in its Oscar resume – unless Best Casting means more than we know. Since this is the first year of that category, we have no way of knowing if winning it means as much to a movie’s Best Picture chances as a solo acting win does. Yet this would be quite a year to set a precedent for it.
Would an above-the-line package of a Best Casting win and a Screenplay win be the equivalent of how Best Picture winners like “Moonlight,” “Green Book,“ and “CODA“ won it all with only an individual acting win and a Screenplay win above the line? Or would it still mean nothing if “One Battle After Another“ still got Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay, and at least one acting win – even though “Moonlight’s“ smaller above-the-line win package beat out “La La Land“ after it won Best Director and Best Actress anyway?
It was harder to argue “Sinners“ had that kind of potential support before, and it was a tough case even when it was projected for 14 or 15 nominations. But now that it has 16, is it a real sign that the groundswell for an upset Best Picture win is right there, to the point where winning Best Casting will be enough to fill the biggest blank space on its possible Best Picture-winning resume?
History will be made, whether for or against “Sinners,“ either way, when the Oscars are awarded on March 15th.
How many Oscars do you think “Sinners” is going to win? What do you think of it setting a new Academy record with 16 Oscar nominations? Please let us know in the comments section below and on Next Best Picture’s X account, click here here for the most recent tally of awards season winners, here for Next Best Picture’s precursor tracker, and here for their current Oscar predictions.
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