Tuesday, December 16, 2025

Reactions To The Surprises And Misses From The 2025 Oscar Shortlists

This year, the Academy added two new categories for its annual shortlists: Best Casting and Best Cinematography. That brings the total up to 12 shortlists altogether: Best Makeup & HairstylingSoundVisual Effects, International Feature Film, Documentary Feature, Original Score, Original SongAnimated Short, Live-Action Short, and Documentary Short. The lists vary in size, but rarely pack more than a handful of surprises. This year, more than most, offered its fair share of unexpected contenders, including numerous films that were otherwise nonexistent in the awards race. Elsewhere, films looking for a last-minute boost of support from these branches went home empty-handed, like “The Testament of Ann Lee,” while bubble contenders proved their strength, like “Wicked: For Good.” Let’s go through the Feature categories (we’ll save the shorts for another time) and see what’s missing, what made it, and what it means for that category.

CASTINGFrankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle after Another
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Sirât
Weapons
Wicked: For Good

The first-ever shortlist for Casting essentially proved what many had expected: the category will be strongly tied to Best Picture contenders. Some had hoped less “awards-y” picks like “The Long Walk” might make it, or that films with abnormally large ensembles would dominate, like “Wake Up Dead Man.” Neither panned out. Most of the nominees here are among the most expected Best Picture nominees. “Weapons” made its way here, which could be seen as a good sign for Amy Madigan’s Oscar chances. Brazil’s “The Secret Agent” landing here is also a good sign for a film that’s hovered around people’s Best Picture predictions all season. Perhaps the biggest surprise in the bunch is “Sirât,” which performed quite well among these shortlists. One expected nominee missing here is “Jay Kelly,” which was a presumed shoo-in for its large cast, spot-on casting of young actors, and its presumed safe Best Picture spot. Is Noah Baumbach’s film in trouble?

CINEMATOGRAPHYBallad of a Small Player
Bugonia
Die My Love
F1
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Nouvelle Vague
One Battle after Another
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Sirât
Song Sung Blue
Sound of Falling
Train Dreams
Wicked: For Good

“Song Sung Blue,” what are you doing here? It’s safe to say that Amy Vincent’s work on Craig Brewer’s Neil Diamond-infused film wasn’t anywhere near people’s expected lists. Nevertheless, the film joins a fairly eclectic list. The expected Best Picture contenders made it, like “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners,” while some films whose buzz had seemed to fade got a boost, like “Die My Love” and “Ballad of a Small Player.” The Cinematography branch often nominates non-English language films, and “Sentimental Value,” “Sirât, and “Sound of Falling could be among their picks this year. Additionally, “Nouvelle Vague received a mention here, the sole black-and-white film on the list. Continuing a sad trend on today’s lists, “Jay Kelly is one of the few surprising exemptions here. Additionally, anyone dreaming of “Resurrection as this year’s “cool as hell nomination will find their hopes dashed.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE FILMThe Alabama Solution
Apocalypse in the Tropics
Coexistence, My Ass!
Come See Me in the Good Light
Cover-Up
Cutting through Rocks
Folktales
Holding Liat
Mr. Nobody against Putin
Mistress Dispeller
My Undesirable Friends: Part 1 – Last Air in Moscow
The Perfect Neighbor
Seeds
2000 Meters to Andriivka
Yanuni

Despite winning the cursed Critics’ Choice Documentary Award, “The Perfect Neighbor” remains alive, as many predict it will go on to win the Oscar in this category. Additionally, “My Undesirable Friends: Part 1 – Last Air in Moscow,” which has gotten a significant boost in recent days after winning the Gotham Award, NYFCC, and LAFCA, secured a spot on the list. It’s a good sign for the five-hour-long documentary. Notably missing from the list: “Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk,” “Orwell 2+2=5,” and “The Tale of Silyan,” which also missed the International Feature shortlist.

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILMArgentina, “Belén
Brazil, “The Secret Agent
France, “It Was Just an Accident
Germany, “Sound of Falling
India, “Homebound
Iraq, “The President’s Cake
Japan, “Kokuho
Jordan, “All That’s Left of You
Norway, “Sentimental Value
Palestine, “Palestine 36
South Korea, “No Other Choice
Spain, “Sirât
Switzerland, “Late Shift
Taiwan, “Left-Handed Girl
Tunisia, “The Voice of Hind Rajab

To no one’s surprise, all five of NEON’s contenders made it through to the final round here: “Sentimental Value,” “The Secret Agent,” “No Other Choice,” “Sirât,” and “It Was Just an Accident.” All three Palestinian stories submitted to the Academy this year also made it through: “All That’s Left of You,” “Palestine 36,” and “The Voice of Hind-Rajab.” Right now, “The Voice of Hind Rajab” seems to have the most buzz of the three and could easily find its way into the final lineup. Notable misses from this shortlist include “The Tale of Silyan,” which also missed the Documentary shortlist, and Iceland’s “The Love That Remains.” Otherwise, this is a fairly unsurprising lineup. Can NEON truly secure all five nominations? It’s incredibly unlikely, but which one will miss? It’s not going to be “Sentimental Value” or “It Was Just an Accident,” while “The Secret Agent” could also make it into Best Picture. “Sirât” had a stunning showing among these shortlists today, so it seems to have significant support. Does that leave “No Other Choice” as the weakest among them?

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLINGThe Alto Knights
Frankenstein
Kokuho
Marty Supreme
Nuremberg
One Battle after Another
Sinners
The Smashing Machine
The Ugly Stepsister
Wicked: For Good

As they do every year, the Makeup and Hairstyling branch kept things interesting. “The Alto Knights,” which you’d be forgiven for forgetting even existed, landed here, alongside a very fantastic mention for “The Ugly Stepsister.” “Wicked: For Good” continued its domination, not missing a single possible category among the shortlists. The “Kokuho” mention is notable, as the Japanese film also made it to the International Feature list. Otherwise, the expected contenders stuck around, like “Frankenstein,” “Sinners,” “The Smashing Machine,” and “Marty Supreme.” The biggest tell among the misses: no “Weapons.” While the film made it into Casting, a solid sign for Amy Madigan’s chances, this should’ve been a reasonably safe spot for the film to appear. Not great for those banking on a Madigan nomination, though the race is far from over.

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)Avatar: Fire and Ash
Bugonia
Captain America: Brave New World
Diane Warren: Relentless
F1
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Hedda
A House of Dynamite
Jay Kelly
Marty Supreme
Nuremberg
One Battle after Another
Sinners
Sirât
Train Dreams
Tron: Ares
“Truth and Treason”
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Wicked: For Good

Angel Studios is likely celebrating its first-ever shortlist mention with the surprising “Truth and Treason” finding its way onto the list. Also unexpected is the mention for “Diane Warren: Relentless,” which of course also landed on the shortlist for Original Song. Among the expected notices for the Best Picture contenders, like “Sinners,” “One Battle After Another,” “Marty Supreme,” and “Frankenstein,” we see the only shortlist mention of “Jay Kelly,” perhaps too little too late. “Hamnet,” which had skirted eligibility issues due to preexisting music, still made it into this final stage and could receive Max Richter’s first nomination. Similarly, “The Testament of Ann Lee” was deemed eligible but missed this lineup, as well as all the other shortlists today. While Disney and Marvel mounted a campaign for Michael Giacchino’s score from “The Fantastic Four: First Steps,” the branch recognized “Captain America: Brave New World” instead. Additionally, this is the first year since the shortlists were reintroduced without an animated film on the list.

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)“As Alive As You Need Me To Be” from “Tron: Ares
“Dear Me” from “Diane Warren: Relentless
“Dream As One” from “Avatar: Fire and Ash
“Drive” from “F1
“Dying To Live” from “Billy Idol Should Be Dead
“The Girl In The Bubble” from “Wicked: For Good
“Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters
“Highest 2 Lowest” from “Highest 2 Lowest
“I Lied To You” from “Sinners
“Last Time (I Seen The Sun)” from “Sinners
“No Place Like Home” from “Wicked: For Good
“Our Love” from “The Ballad of Wallis Island
“Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from “Come See Me in the Good Light
“Sweet Dreams Of Joy” from “Viva Verdi!”
“Train Dreams” from “Train Dreams

Goodbye, “The Testament of Ann Lee.” You deserved better. Daniel Blumberg’s “Clothed By The Sun” didn’t make it onto this list, essentially ending that film’s Oscar chances outside of Amanda Seyfried. In a banner year for original songs in film, the expected heavy hitters all made it to this shortlist. Two songs from both “Sinners” and “Wicked: For Good” made it here, along with the possible winner, “Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters.” Nick Cave’s “Train Dreams” stuck around, as did the title track from “Highest 2 Lowest.” Sara Bareilles’ “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from the shortlisted documentary “Come See Me in the Good Light” showed up as well. And what would an Original Song lineup be without Diane Warren? This time, she’s shortlisted for a documentary about herself, “Diane Warren: Relentless,” which is also on the Original Score lineup. Perhaps the most surprising mention here is “Sweet Dreams Of Joy” from the little-seen documentary “Viva Verdi!” Ultimately, with “Clothed By The Sun” sadly left off, the nominees seem fairly clear: “Golden,” “I Lied To You,” “The Girl in the Bubble,” “Train Dreams,” and “Dear Me.” But will there be a surprise?

SOUNDAvatar: Fire and Ash
F1
Frankenstein
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
One Battle after Another
Sinners
Sirât
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Superman
Wicked: For Good

Wicked: For Good” truly was unstoppable on these shortlists. There wasn’t much at all surprising among the Sound shortlist. “Sirât” could be a very cool nominee, and the film certainly found plenty of support among these branches today. Sadly, A24’s “Warfare,” which featured some of the most intense soundwork of the year, was left off the list, the only true snub of this category. Music-driven films like “Sinners,” “Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere,” and “Wicked: For Good” made it in, while “Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning” showed up, two years after receiving the first-ever nominations for the franchise. This is an expected list, which frankly makes narrowing it down a bit tougher. Expect love for “F1” and “Avatar: Fire and Ash” here, among the stronger Best Picture contenders.

VISUAL EFFECTSAvatar: Fire and Ash
The Electric State
F1
Frankenstein
Jurassic World Rebirth
The Lost Bus
Sinners
Superman
Tron: Ares
Wicked: For Good

Despite Marvel missing the shortlist for the first time (2020 excluded) since 2009, MCU mainstays, the Russo brothers, still found a way onto this list with “The Electric State.” Elsewhere, there aren’t many surprises to be found here, with “Avatar: Fire and Ash” as the expected winner, Best Picture nomination or not. “The Lost Bus,” a film that had fizzled out upon release, made a comeback to land here. Additionally, every “Jurassic World” film has landed on the shortlist, even though none have been nominated since 1997. “Sinners,” “Frankenstein,” and possibly “Wicked: For Good” are the likely Best Picture nominees among this shortlist, so does that mean they’re getting in? Well, that’s not guaranteed at all, but it’s pretty rare for the final nominees not to include any Best Picture nominees.

Overall, it was a great day for “Wicked: For Good,” “Sirât,” “One Battle After Another,” and “Sinners,” while a pretty rough day for “The Testament of Ann Lee” and “Jay Kelly.” Even so, we’ve still got several weeks until the nominations are here, so a lot could still change.

What was your biggest surprise among these shortlists? How do these affect your Oscar predictions? Please let us know your thoughts on our X account. Click here for more upcoming awards season dates, here for the most recent tally of awards season winners, here for our precursor tracker, and here for our current Oscar predictions.

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Daniel Howat
Daniel Howathttps://nextbestpicture.com
Dad, critic, and overly confident awards analyst. Enjoy!

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