The recent premiere of “Joker: Folie à Deux” was one of the most anticipated moments at the Venice Film Festival or any of the major fall film festivals. The sequel has big clown shoes to fill after the titanic success of its predecessor “Joker,” which won two Academy Awards out of its ceremony-leading 11 nominations and raked in more than $1 billion at the global box office.
While there was a lot to look forward to from the first reactions, including word on Joaquin Phoenix’s reprisal of his Oscar-winning performance and just how exactly the much-discussed musical numbers would work, perhaps the most tantalizing aspect of the film is Lady Gaga’s performance as Harleen “Lee” Quinzel (better known to comic book fans as “Harley Quinn”). While reviews out of Venice have been mixed overall, with the film debuting to a 54 on Metacritic and a barely-fresh 60% on Rotten Tomatoes, Gaga’s performance has been praised in even some of the more negative write-ups. Here at Next Best Picture, our critic Ema Sasic called Gaga “extraordinary,” saying she “lights up the screen with her deranged presence just as much as Phoenix did in the first film.”
Naturally, this has led to a discussion about her chances at an Oscar nomination for Best Supporting Actress. A previous acting nominee for “A Star is Born,” Gaga has planted herself firmly in the conversation for a second nominated performance with “Joker: Folie à Deux.” However, despite her awards success for Bradley Cooper’s 2018 remake, she also has a history of coming very close to Oscar glory and missing at the last minute.
Her first Academy Award nomination was exclusively in recognition of her songwriting skills. At the 2015 Oscars, she received a nod for Best Original Song for “Til It Happens to You,” co-written with frequent Oscar nominee Diane Warren (this was her eighth nomination and she has since received an additional seven nominations) for the documentary “The Hunting Ground.” The film is a sobering look at the epidemic of sexual assaults on college campuses, and the anthemic song further underlines the victims’ plight. The song was widely predicted to triumph on the night of the awards, and a stunningly moving performance by Gaga during the ceremony only made her victory seem inevitable. But “Writing’s on the Wall,” the song for the James Bond film “Spectre,” co-written and performed by Sam Smith, was the surprising winner. Luckily, it wouldn’t be long before Gaga returned to the Oscars stage triumphantly.
“A Star is Born” also debuted at the 2018 Venice Film Festival, and her starry entrance sitting on the side of a boat on her way to the film’s premiere has become the stuff of modern celebrity legend. That film’s immediately rapturous reception thrust Gaga into the Oscar conversation, both for her acting work as well as her songwriting. And, while she ultimately didn’t win the top prize for her performance, she was arguably in third place behind Glenn Close (“The Wife“) and the ultimate winner, Olivia Colman (“The Favourite“). Gaga was a presence at every major awards show and even won Best Actress at the Critics Choice Awards (where she tied with Close) and from the always-important National Board of Review. And, of course, she swept the songwriting awards for the hit song “Shallow,” up to her eventual victory at the Academy Awards. While she may not have won Best Actress, it’s hard to be sad for Gaga when her performance was so clearly beloved by audiences, critics, and awards voters. For someone who’s practiced the art of performance every day, both on and off stage, her first Oscar nomination for acting was a welcome yet natural step forward in her career.
Gaga’s next film was an even more daring choice for the singer-actress. Legendary director Ridley Scott cast her as Patrizia Reggiani, the center of his 2021 film “House of Gucci.” This role not only required Gaga to single-handedly lead a movie (supported by an incredible ensemble) but also adopt an Italian accent and command the screen without relying on her musical abilities. It’s a fully dramatic performance – with some genuinely funny moments of camp – and, like her turn in “A Star is Born,” it was well-received.
While the film itself struggled with consistency during its precursor awards run, Gaga was a mainstay at nearly every awards show leading up to the Oscars. She won the prestigious New York Film Critics Circle Award for Best Actress and was nominated at all four major televised awards: the Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards, Screen Actors Guild Awards, and the BAFTAs. This made her eventual snub at the Oscars all the more surprising. It’s incredibly rare for a performer to receive nominations from the four major precursors and subsequently not hear their name called on Oscar nomination morning. It usually only happens to no more than one performer each year, if any at all. While Gaga didn’t quite clear the finish line, her overall awards run for “House of Gucci” could be called impressive, as it showed that Hollywood takes her seriously as an actress.
Her most recent Oscar nomination, like her first, was for Best Original Song for a film in which she didn’t act. “Hold My Hand” is an 80s-inspired power ballad written for the 2022 blockbuster sequel “Top Gun: Maverick.” And, much like the film itself, it easily soared through awards season to ultimately nail the landing on Oscar nomination morning. But the Best Picture nominee only managed to win one award (Best Sound), meaning Gaga’s “Shallow” Oscar wouldn’t be getting a little brother just yet.
And now, audiences and awards voters will soon see Gaga on the big screen again in “Joker: Folie à Deux.” Although it’s a musical, word out of Venice is that none of the songs in the film were written originally for this movie, so Gaga’s only chance at Oscar glory is likely for her performance in the Supporting Actress category. Obviously, it’s still very early in the awards race, but she’s already being widely predicted as a contender for a nomination. It’s a packed category of potential nominees, with Danielle Deadwyler (“The Piano Lesson”), a pair of performances from “Emilia Pérez” (Zoe Saldaña and Selena Gomez), Felicity Jones (“The Brutalist”), Saoirse Ronan (“Blitz”), and Tilda Swinton (“The Room Next Door”), all being named as significant contenders, among others.
Another potential hurdle for Gaga is the film’s overall reception, with early reviews significantly less effusive of the film than they were for the first “Joker.” Still, the film is expected to be a huge earner at the box office, which always helps Oscar chances. Gaga’s potential awards run may mimic that of another previous Best Actress nominee who received a Supporting Actress nomination for an arguably disappointing, yet financially successful, follow-up to a comic book blockbuster: Angela Bassett for 2022’s “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.” Of course, Bassett benefited from more than three decades of acclaimed work leading up to her second Oscar nomination. Still, the comparisons are striking and show that the Academy is willing to embrace standout performances from moderately-received films.
Only time will tell if Lady Gaga will find herself welcomed back to the Academy Awards. But if her past press tours are any indication, watching her work for a nomination will undoubtedly be fun.
Do you think Lady Gaga has a chance at an Oscar nomination for “Joker: Folie à Deux”? Please let us know your thoughts in the comments section below or on our Twitter account and check out the Next Best Picture team’s latest Oscar predictions here.
