Quite literally days after “One Battle After Another” brought an end to the 2025 Oscar season, the 2026 Oscar season began in short order with the release of “Project Hail Mary.” Yet as hyperbolic as it may sound to argue that the first potential Best Picture nominee of the season is already out in March, that is actually just business as usual lately.
Saying that the Oscar race begins in February or March now isn’t a joke these days, or a way to accuse pundits of not wanting to take any time off. Excluding the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021, five out of the last seven “regular” years have had an Oscar-nominated box office hit open in the spring, and now “Project Hail Mary” will be pushed hard to make it six out of the last eight.
2017: “Get Out” – opened on February 24, $33.3 million domestic opening, $176+ million overall
2018: “Black Panther” – opened on February 16, $202+ million domestic opening, $700+ million overall
2022: “Everything Everywhere All at Once” – opened on March 25, was in the top 10 for 14 straight weekends, $77+ million domestic overall [biggest in A24 history until “Marty Supreme”]
2024: “Dune: Part Two” – opened on March 1, $82.5 million domestic opening, $282+ million overall
2025: “Sinners” – opened on April 18, $48+ million domestic opening, $279 million overall
2026: “Project Hail Mary” – opened on March 20, $80.6 million domestic, likely $200-$300 million overall
While “Project Hail Mary” didn’t open like “Black Panther“ and was surprisingly just below “Dune: Part Two,“ it opened above movies like “Sinners,” “Get Out,“ and “Everything Everywhere All at Once“ that used word of mouth and uncommonly large buzz to keep legging out for weeks or months. Those extended runs made them cross over from box office hits to full-on Oscar season contenders, despite opening so much earlier and having to linger so much longer than any other film.
It was their rave reviews, critical acclaim, and audience adoration that really made these early hits stick, as their scores and passion rivaled or surpassed those of their more traditional Oscar-bait rivals. In that aspect, “Project Hail Mary“ has a path to rival those hits as well.
Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic Scores
“Get Out” – 98% Tomatometer and 8.3 average rating on Rotten Tomatoes, 85 on Metacritic
“Black Panther” – 96% Tomatometer and 8.3 average rating on Rotten Tomatoes, 88 on Metacritic
“Everything Everywhere All at Once” – 93% Tomatometer and 8.6 average rating on Rotten Tomatoes, 81 on Metacritic
“Dune: Part Two” – 92% Tomatometer and 8.4 average rating on Rotten Tomatoes, 79 on Metacritic
“Sinners” – 97% Tomatometer and 8.8 average rating on Rotten Tomatoes, 84 on MetaCritic
“Project Hail Mary” – 95% Tomatometer and 8.3 average rating on Rotten Tomatoes, 77 on Metacritic
Like the previous spring blockbuster nominees, “Project Hail Mary“ has over 90% and an over 8.0 average rating on Rotten Tomatoes, which a handful of eventual Best Picture nominees every year don’t come close to. But a sign of vulnerability may have been signaled from Metacritic, as its aggregate of 77 from the top 50+ elite critics doesn’t equal the 8.3 average rating Rotten Tomatoes collected from over 280 general critics so far.
This puts it more in line with “Dune: Part Two,“ which had a similar divide between Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic two years ago. That space/sci-fi film secured its eventual Best Picture nomination very early. Yet, its hopes of doing more than getting nominated and landing a couple of technical wins faded slowly throughout the season. In the end, this didn’t make it a top-tier contender like Spring’s “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” “Sinners,“ and “Get Out“ – all films with higher ratings and eventual wins in major categories.
“Project Hail Mary“ may have an early resume like these recent spring blockbusters and Best Picture nominees, but the road to being more of a top three or five contender like “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” “Sinners,“ and “Get Out” still looks harder. Then again, no one really expected those films to be huge Oscar players after they opened, even after they became runaway hits and the biggest early critical darlings of their respective years. By the time “Project Hail Mary“establishes how big its box office legs and word of mouth really are, it will have its own claim staked as the early bar for contenders the rest of the season, however crowded that field becomes.
“Project Hail Mary“ will be championed for nominations in below-the-line categories like Best Visual Effects, Best Cinematography, and Best Production Design, perhaps Best Adapted Screenplay if that field is relatively thin for a third year in a row, and possibly Ryan Gosling for Best Actor depending on how crowded that field gets later. Of course, it will be months before we really know what that field and all the others are truly made of, and whether there will be room for “Project Hail Mary“ to contend in several of them like there was for “Sinners,“ or if they will overflow too much down the line.
While “Project Hail Mary“ may be the first blockbuster to be counted in the Oscar race for 2026, no one thinks it will be the last, considering that Christopher Nolan’s “The Odyssey“ and “Dune: Part Three“ are leading the projected crop of blockbuster contenders this season. Still, most everyone thought for months last season that “Wicked: For Good“ and/or “Avatar: Fire and Ash“ would join “Sinners“ as the blockbuster nominees of 2025, and it turned out the only other nominee that made $100+ million domestic was “F1“ instead. As such, “Project Hail Mary“ could be among a very different field of blockbuster awards films – whether it’s too crowded or too slim – than anyone is predicting right now.
Two $100+ million blockbusters have made Best Picture each of the last three years, after three made it in 2022. So if “The Odyssey“ and “Dune: Part Three“ do in fact exceed expectations, “Project Hail Mary“ has to hope it still holds up by comparison and that no other massive hits become awards films either. For that matter, since “Michael“ is looming next month, “Project Hail Mary“ has to hope that a possible billion-dollar hit doesn’t become the spring’s designated contender instead, and that it isn’t one of those films the Academy will gladly ignore near-certain controversy and critical divides for.
“Project Hail Mary“ is an adaptation that isn’t a totally original film like “Sinners,” “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” and “Get Out,“ and it isn’t a sequel or franchise film like “Black Panther“ and “Dune: Part Two.“ But since it is based on a novel from the same author who inspired the 2015 Oscar nominee “The Martian,“ since directors Phil Lord and Christopher Miller have some familiarity with the Academy from the two “Spider-Verse“ movies, and since Gosling just got nominated for a blockbuster crossover hit in “Barbie“ two years ago, it does have enough of an awards pedigree to help it get a bigger foot in the door.
The wild card might be its studio, as “Project Hail Mary“ comes from MGM instead of Warner Bros, Universal, Disney/Marvel, or an established indie darling like A24. While the Orion division of MGM guided recent Oscar winners like “Women Talking“ and “American Fiction,“ along with other recent Best Picture nominees like “Licorice Pizza“ and “Nickel Boys,“ all these films except TIFF acquisition “American Fiction“ underachieved after starting as bigger preseason favorites – and MGM’s 2025 projected preseason favorite “After the Hunt“ completely bombed out altogether. But given this is the biggest box-office hit for MGM since Amazon bought it, “Project Hail Mary“ is an entirely different awards prospect. However, MGM’s track record of keeping any contender strong for months on end hasn’t been great this decade.
Either way, “Project Hail Mary“ is now the first film of 2026 to officially kick off the upcoming Oscar season – unless one counts BAFTA winner “I Swear,“ which will open in America and become Oscar-eligible soon. To those who keep pleading for Oscar season not to be stretched so long, perhaps declaring that the new season has already started just days after the last one ended only proves their point.
Yet for all the current handwringing over how late the Oscars are being held, the fact that Oscar contenders are opening earlier and earlier lately is a big part of why awards season is getting longer, too. However, the fans of “Project Hail Mary,“ much like the fans of “Sinners,” “Dune: Part Two,” “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” “Black Panther,“ and “Get Out“ before them, surely don’t see that part of it as a problem. And since we are getting further from the days of waiting for Cannes, the occasional surprise summer hit, or fall festival season to have quality Oscar contenders again every season, moviegoers at large should be relieved at this part of the trend, too.
Do you think “Project Hail Mary” will be a serious Oscar contender? How do you feel about films that premiere early in the year and go on to have a successful awards season run? Please let us know in the comments section below and on Next Best Picture’s X account.
You can follow Robert and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars & Film on X @Robertdoc1984
