Now that “Sinners” has shocked Hollywood with a second straight $45+ million opening, it removes the last little doubt that there will be awards season attention on it in some way. Whether an R-rated Black-led period horror/vampire movie is really something the Academy will nominate or not, its ever-growing box office and rave reviews give Warner Bros no choice but to make some kind of push later this season. However, one big issue ahead is what this means for the film meant to be Warner Bros’ big push this season – and biggest box office gamble.
“One Battle After Another” is another period film of sorts from a critically adored auteur and another film whose big budget and questionable release date have inspired doubt about its profitability – and how much Warner Bros really wants it to be profitable. Nonetheless, if it answers its doubters even as half as convincingly as “Sinners” just did, pundits will be much quicker to put Paul Thomas Anderson, Leonardo DiCaprio, Sean Penn, and others at the top of the Oscar pecking order.
And yet, until it is seen, there will be questions about whether it will even be at the top of Warner Bros’ pecking order this season – and whether “Sinners” success is the best or worst possible thing for “One Battle After Another.”
On one hand, if “Sinners” can become such a massive and unexpected hit – at least unexpected in some circles – then by logic, Warner Bros making “One Battle After Another” a real hit should be easy by comparison. Despite having a reported $110+ million budget, being helmed by a director who’s been far more of a critical than commercial success, and having source material and political themes that may either look like box office dynamite or poison by fall 2025, the obstacles for “One Battle After Another” are far less historically daunting than those that “Sinners” just overcame.
Truthfully, “One Battle After Another” could have more wiggle room now that “Sinners” has already given Warner Bros a box office hit/awards contender. On paper, that puts less pressure on this film to overperform – and as many of Anderson’s past nominated films and a few of DiCaprio’s have proved, merely breaking even or not losing too much at the box office can still be enough. Of course, those films were far greater critical darlings than box office hits, and there are still five months until “One Battle After Another” gets to prove if it is one, the other, or both.
Even if “One Battle After Another” is only one of those things, that might be enough for it, whereas “Sinners” needed to be both on a historic level just to get into the conversation. But in that scenario, if Warner Bros does have both these films as viable contenders and nominees, will it put its full muscle behind an already massive and raved hit like “Sinners,” or coast on the proven Oscar bankability of Anderson, DiCaprio, and the “One Battle After Another” team?
It might not have to choose since Warner Bros isn’t that far removed from getting two Best Picture nominees in. Yet since 2021 was a pandemic year, that might put an asterisk on it, despite how Warner Bros had technical sweeper “Dune” and Best Actor winner “King Richard” both get in anyway. Before that, its only duel Best Picture nominations in the expanded era were in 2013, when technical sweeper and Best Director winner “Gravity” got in alongside Best Original Screenplay winner “Her” – a case where it could get a massive box office hit and a more critical auteur-driven darling in at the same time.
Nonetheless, that was a long time ago in a far different era for Warner Bros, the Oscars, and Hollywood. In the David Zaslav regime, Warner Bros did everything to look like it set up films like “Sinners” and “One Battle After Another” to fail on purpose so it never has to make such movies again and turn itself over completely to “A Minecraft Movie” and other IP sure-things. But now that “Sinners” has shattered that vision, will Warners follow the money and make it its new Oscar season priority – if for appearance’s sake – or stick with “One Battle After Another” even if it only gets the bare minimum reviews and box office it needs for its theatrical run?
In truth, if “One Battle After Another” is in the mix, it might have a greater range of potential major nominations than “Sinners” does. In this era, populist directors like Ryan Coogler have a much harder time getting into Best Director – as Warner Bros knows too well after Denis Villeneuve and Greta Gerwig’s recent snubs – and even its acting standouts like Michael B. Jordan, Miles Caton, Delroy Lindo, and others are all likely longshots for individual nominations. In contrast, “One Battle After Another” has a consistently nominated director and writer in Anderson, past winners like DiCaprio, Penn, and Benicio del Toro, and maybe at least one potential Best Supporting Actress newcomer nominee among either Teyana Taylor, Regina Hall, or Chase Infiniti.
All “One Battle After Another” might have to do is avoid the poisonous box office headlines “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga,” “Joker: Folie a Deux,” and “Mickey 17” had – and the kind the trades tried to pin on “Sinners” – and the pundits and voters may take care of the rest from there. But if it doesn’t win competitively in some major categories, will pundits and voters really stoke the kind of passion that can get it in any way – and perhaps over something like “Sinners” if they are both on the bubble?
In years where Warner Bros got two films in, “Dune” and “King Richard” were locked in because they were favored to win the right categories, as were “Gravity” and “Her.” Until everyone sees just how good “One Battle After Another” might be, and until everyone sees how many hits and seemingly win-competitive films match the reviews and box office of “Sinners,” there’s no way to know how much more these two films can do than just get nominated.
Perhaps “One Battle After Another” will only be pushed to get Anderson his long-awaited Oscar for either Best Director or Best Adapted Screenplay. That might be enough for it like it was for “King Richard” to get Will Smith’s Oscar and “Her” to get Spike Jonze’s. But for all of “Sinners’s” technical prowess, it doesn’t look like a “Dune” or “Gravity” kind of below-the-line sweeper, especially in a year with both “Avatar: Fire and Ash” and “Wicked: For Good” likely in the running too.
By winter, both of these films could be in the nomination hunt only and, therefore, more vulnerable to getting snubbed. Yet if one or both of them have a real shot to do more, then Warner Bros. will either have a historic awards season ahead or face some tough decisions—and potential blowback.
If “One Battle After Another” is as big or bigger as Anderson and DiCaprio’s fans hope, then will Warner Bros decide “Sinners” box office is enough of a reward and push a more “traditional” sure thing among voters by comparison? Or now that “Sinners” and “A Minecraft Movie” have given Warner Bros a significant financial and prestige cushion, will it fully get behind the box office and cultural narratives of “Sinners” and decide “One Battle After Another” is a battle it can now afford to lose – at least if it really isn’t another Anderson and DiCaprio classic? And if it really does decide to push both in full force, can it truly pull it off?
Aside from Warner Bros’ double nominations in 2013 and 2021, the only times one of the major studios got two Best Picture nominations in the expanded era were with Paramount in 2010 and 2016, the former 20th Century Fox in 2015, and Sony in 2013. And as Warner Bros knows from last year, getting one nominee locked early doesn’t guarantee getting a second one later, after “Dune: Part Two” didn’t signal awards or box office success to come for “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga” or “Joker: Folie a Deux” months later.
Yet if “One Battle After Another” is a success story, or at least not a box office disaster or stain on Anderson’s legacy, then Warner Bros will have that double whammy a year later, after all. More crucially, it will have lots of eyeballs watching what it decides to do about it, and what, if anything, gets special treatment over the other.
With most normal studios and most normal double contenders, there would be almost no way to screw that up. But nothing might be normal when it comes to Warner Bros in 2025 and films like “Sinners” and “One Battle After Another” that were perhaps never planned to be massive hits despite their budgets and pedigree. As such, if “One Battle After Another” joins “Sinners” as a less-than-normal hit and Oscar hopeful, whatever happens next won’t be normal.
What do you think will be Warner Bros. awards campaign strategy for “Sinners” and “One Battle After Another?” Please let us know in the comments section below and on Next Best Picture’s X account.
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