In the midst of a hot and cold fall film festival season, the one film everyone cannot stop buzzing about is the one that skipped every major festival appearance. Paul Thomas Anderson fever is beginning to sweep the nation as his latest feature, “One Battle After Another,” a $150 million action-comedy loosely based on Thomas Pynchon’s “Vineland” and distributed by Warner Bros, emerges as one of the most audacious studio releases in years. It is Anderson at his most socially relevant, striking a chord with the laughable and ridiculous reality we find ourselves living in. All of this is depicted through an engrossing father-daughter story set against the backdrop of liberated ICE camps, secret societies, and Sean Penn’s antagonist sporting one of the most horrid haircuts of the year. It is more than apparent that Anderson has created something special here, and the question is beginning to form. Is this finally his time? There may still be five months until the Academy Awards, so the claim could be premature. However, the growing consensus among industry professionals is that it feels all but inevitable that Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” will be the film that major awards bodies rally behind all the way to the Oscars.
It already stands apart from the rest of the competition as not only a frontrunner for Best Picture but also a film that many critics and audiences have declared one of the best of the decade. Critically, it is among the year’s highest-reviewed releases and has even earned PTA his first-ever A Cinemascore, something “Boogie Nights” never achieved. We may be on the verge of Nolan-level domination, where every awards show lines up to reward one of cinema’s most celebrated filmmakers. There are only so many times the “overdue” narrative holds weight, and this is a clear example. Since his first Oscar nomination in 1997 for “Boogie Nights,” Anderson has been nominated another ten times without a single win. His most recent nomination came with “Licorice Pizza,” a film that, while passionately defended by some, managed only three nominations in a field of ten.
Of course, there are detractors. Some will focus on the film’s box office performance, suggesting that if it fails to meet certain expectations, the perception of failure could weaken its chances of winning Best Picture. In this case, that argument feels irrelevant. Anderson’s films have never been box office juggernauts. “There Will Be Blood,” which grossed $76 million, remains his highest-grossing release. Trades were quick to sound alarms after the film’s $22.4 million domestic opening. Yet, it still earned $48.5 million globally in its first weekend and is already tracking to surpass Anderson’s previous best within a week. Opening weekend is not the end-all of a film’s theatrical life. “One Battle After Another” was designed to build on positive word of mouth and thrive in a soft October marketplace. There is plenty of room for the film to play through the holiday season and become Anderson’s most financially successful work to date.
The film also benefits from the fact that its biggest competition, “Sinners,” shares the same distributor. Both will receive strong campaigns, but “One Battle After Another” has a more compelling narrative, sharper timeliness, and the undeniable momentum of being the conversation starter of the season. “Sinners” will challenge in the craft categories and could end with a Best Original Screenplay win for Ryan Coogler. “Hamnet,” another major contender, has the acclaim to pose a threat but could find itself in the category of beloved films like “The Power of the Dog” or “Roma” that collect nominations without winning the top prize. With Chloé Zhao fresh off her Best Picture and Best Director wins for “Nomadland,” there is less urgency to reward her again compared to Anderson, whose “overdue” narrative is undeniable.
Unless Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell claim Best Adapted Screenplay, Jessie Buckley could be the sole above-the-line winner for “Hamnet.” By comparison, “One Battle After Another” feels far more aligned with what the Writers’ Branch tends to reward. Anderson’s film could walk away with Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Editing, Best Score, and Best Picture. Leonardo DiCaprio may even be poised for his second Oscar if Timothée Chalamet’s “Marty Supreme” performance does not dominate the conversation. And despite the controversies he stirs, Sean Penn could become a three-time Oscar winner with Best Supporting Actor.
At this stage, it is difficult to imagine “One Battle After Another” not becoming one of the most nominated films of the year. Momentum shows no signs of slowing down. The Next Best Picture team currently has on its consensus predictions page it currently receiving nominations for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actress (2x), Best Supporting Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Casting, Best Cinematography, Best Film Editing, and Best Original Score which would result in 11 nominations. There is often a temptation to overthink the race and insist it cannot be this straightforward. Sometimes it really is. Recent years have shown that when the Academy falls in love with a film, they embrace it wholeheartedly. “Everything Everywhere All At Once,” “Oppenheimer,” and “Anora” are perfect examples. Awards season has only just begun, but if we are being honest, “One Battle After Another” already feels like the inevitable choice, and perhaps, the right one.
What do you think, is it finally Paul Thomas Anderson’s time? Will “One Battle After Another” win Best Picture? What is the biggest competition for a film this beloved? Please let us know in the comments section below and on Next Best Picture’s X account, and check out the team’s latest Oscar predictions here.
