Over the last two weeks, viewers and onlookers of the 2025 Cannes Film Festival were waiting for it to look like 2023 and 2024 again when three eventual Best Picture nominees first premiered. Yet by the end, when surprise winner “It Was Just an Accident” won the Palme d’Or over presumed favorites “Sentimental Value” and “The Secret Agent,” pundits had to consider if the 2025 festival would really go down just like 2021 – the last time a Palme d’Or winner didn’t make the Oscar Best Picture field. As it stands, there are indeed similarities between the 2021 and 2025 festival outcomes, whether or not more are to come later.
In 2021, “Titane” was the surprise Palme d’Or winner that still didn’t get anywhere at the Oscars, unlike 2019 winner “Parasite” and subsequent winners “Triangle of Sadness,” “Anatomy of a Fall,” and “Anora.” However, perhaps a greater link between the 2021 and 2025 festivals is that they both had Joachim Trier films, which fell short of the Palme but still won something anyway. Also in 2021, Trier’s “The Worst Person in the World” won Best Actress for Renate Reinsve, although the film itself was unrewarded. Four years later, the outcome was reversed, as “Sentimental Value” took the Grand Prix and an unofficial second-place showing. Nonetheless, many pundits still give “Sentimental Value” a better chance at being an Oscar season factor than “It Was Just an Accident,” much like “The Worst Person in the World” went deeper in Oscar season 2021 than “Titane.” In part, “Titane” came up empty not just because it was an experimental body horror movie – three years before “The Substance” cracked the code for such films at the Oscars – but because France never submitted it for the Best International Feature Oscar. In contrast, “The Worst Person in the World” was submitted by Norway and stuck its claim into the International Oscar field, which helped give it the extra boost it needed for an additional Best Original Screenplay nomination.
Four years later, “It Was Just an Accident” might well have the same obstacles in reaching the International field, albeit under far different circumstances. Since Iran is unlikely to recognize or submit a film from former political prisoner Jafar Panahi, another country will have to claim it and put it in the running, much like Germany did for “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” last year. If that doesn’t happen, the hope will have to be that voters will still boost it in other major categories, the way they didn’t do so for “Titane” but then did for fellow NEON Palme winner “Anatomy of a Fall” in 2023. Still, a more serious and political film like “It Was Just an Accident” could have an uphill battle for that kind of support, depending on how hard NEON pushes it later in the year. As such, it is easier to guess that the aftermath of the 2025 Cannes Film Festival could be just like 2021 – where a Palme winner gets snubbed the rest of the year and doesn’t get submitted for Best International Feature, and where a runner-up directed by Trier goes further instead. However, it might not end up being an exact parallel.
With “The Worst Person in the World,” reaching Best International Feature and Best Original Screenplay was as far as it could go, as other nominations for Best Picture and Best Actress were just out of reach even in a wobbly year like 2021. But as soon as “Sentimental Value” got its raves at Cannes, pundits put it as a sure-fire possibility for all those nominations and more and would have outright penciled them all in if it had won the Palme.
If there is every expectation that a Cannes runner-up from Trier can go further than it did four years ago, maybe a Palme winner with a harder road ahead could do the same. After all, “It Was Just an Accident” isn’t a genre-bending body horror film, is helmed by an internationally acclaimed auteur like Panahi instead of relative newcomer Julia Ducournau, and could find extra support among politically-minded voters depending on what the state of America is by early 2026.
Nevertheless, there is one significant difference between a duo of “Titane” and “The Worst Person in the World” and “It Was Just an Accident” and “Sentimental Value” – namely, that the latter pairing is from the exact same studio in NEON. With that extra wrinkle, the ultimate fate of “It Was Just an Accident” and “Sentimental Value” might depend on which film NEON puts most of its campaign resources into. For that matter, since NEON also bought fellow Cannes award winner and future Brazilian hit “The Secret Agent,” as well as co-Jury Prize winner “Sirat” while it was at it, its Oscar season and Best International Feature prospects and priorities will be split every which way.
Yet another factor to consider when comparing 2021 and 2025 is that neither “Titane” nor “The Worst Person in the World” was the real Cannes Oscar success story in 2021. In fact, Cannes 2021 Best Screenplay winner “Drive My Car” made a stunning run towards a Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Adapted Screenplay nomination, to go along with beating “The Worst Person in the World” for Best International Feature. That could bode well for a third party like “The Secret Agent,” an even bigger Cannes winner sure to get heavy backing from the now famous “Brazilian army” of supporters that powered “I’m Still Here.” However, suppose history doesn’t repeat itself there. In that case, the only other Cannes awards films are co-Jury Prize winner “Sound of Falling,” Best Screenplay winner “The Young Mother’s Home,” Prix Special Award winner “Resurrection” and Best Actress winner Nadia Melliti for her less acclaimed film “The Little Sister.” Some penciled “Nouvelle Vague” in once Netflix acquired it, yet no film that played in competition and didn’t win a Cannes prize has still gotten into Best Picture in this current era.
For the moment, “It Was Just an Accident” and “Sentimental Value” seem like the films with the best odds, best resumes, and biggest honors that point to potential Best Picture nominations. But since NEON is distributing both films and “The Secret Agent,” if any Cannes film is making a Best Picture nomination run, it will either be just one of these movies or two at maximum. After all, while NEON owns Cannes and has two of the last six Best Picture winners, getting two Best Picture nominations in the same year – and for two foreign films – would take unprecedented influence from the studio. Either way, it seems we can already rule out Cannes’ impacting the 2025 Oscar race like it did in 2024 or 2023, or maybe even 2022. If anything, it looks more likely this will be a year like 2021, all the way down to Trier’s involvement and a Palme winner with a very uncertain future and international rights. Still, if both “It Was Just an Accident” and “Sentimental Value” can each do what “Titane” and “The Worst Person in the World” could not, the 2025 Cannes Film Festival might only be 2021 in reverse instead.
How do you feel “It Was Just an Accident” and “Sentimental Value” will perform at this year’s Academy Awards? Will NEON be able to get both in for Best Picture? Please let us know in the comments section below and on Next Best Picture’s X account.
You can follow Robert and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars & Film on X @Robertdoc1984
