“The Odyssey” winning Best Picture has seemed like a foregone conclusion to the Oscars race ever since it premiered. It is an unprecedented box office success from one of the most beloved directors working today, with audiences and critics in rare, complete alignment. Many would argue that it is still a locked race, and that there is no need to even consider another film taking down this gargantuan contender.
Yet one obstacle stands in the way of Christopher Nolan’s newest film cakewalking to a Best Picture win. Ever since it premiered at the Cannes Film Festival to a rousing, near-record-breaking standing ovation, “La Bola Negra” has been on most people’s radar as an inevitable Best Picture nominee. The queer war epic is almost timeless in its appeal, as its visual flourish is matched only by its beating heart. But after its rapturous releases at the Telluride Film Festival and the Toronto International Film Festival, it is clear that Best International Feature is not the ceiling for this film, but the floor. The standing ovation after “La Bola Negra’s” first screening at TIFF — a rarity for this film festival — was enough to sway several pundits into thinking the film could go all the way and win Best Picture.
After winning the TIFF People’s Choice Award, becoming the first international film to do so in 15 years, “La Bola Negra” went on to top the People’s Telluride poll. Netflix’s previous top contenders in Best Picture have fallen short because they had less audience passion than their competitors — just look at “Roma” losing to “Green Book,” “The Power of the Dog” losing to “CODA,” or “All Quiet on the Western Front” losing to “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” Yet for once, a Netflix contender is in a curious position: even more loved by audiences than by critics.
Do audiences love it more than “The Odyssey,” though? One major reason “The Odyssey” seems like such a juggernaut is how rapturous its audience reception is. Despite the early right-wing backlash the film faced for its casting, it has thrived at the box office because it blew viewers away. Being that highly viewed and that highly loved is a killer combination. Even if “La Bola Negra” does great numbers on Netflix — which it should, considering how passionate the word of mouth will be and how well something like the international war epic “All Quiet on the Western Front” did — it is highly unlikely to surpass “The Odyssey” as the general audience’s pick for Best Picture. I’d argue “Project Hail Mary” or “Dune: Part Three” are likelier threats for the casual moviegoer crowd.
Interestingly, both “La Bola Negra” and “The Odyssey” are monumental films with gorgeous crafts and sweeping stories. The latter is a more traditional Oscar contender in its pedigree and will likely remain the de facto frontrunner all season long. But the former is as majestic in its visual presentation as it is straightforward in its emotional appeal, and if it appeals to industry voters as much as it does to audiences, its underdog narrative could take down the juggernaut. Frontrunner fatigue is a real threat; while “Oppenheimer” practically swept in its year, some voters may feel a bit tired of another Christopher Nolan blockbuster dominating awards season. One of the main reasons “Oppenheimer” didn’t succumb to this was that no film that year came close to rivaling its sheer passion. However, “La Bola Negra” is perfectly positioned as an alternative to “The Odyssey.” It is a bit unfair to liken this to a battle between brains and heart, as both films have strong critical reception and highly emotional sequences, but you can’t underestimate how much “La Bola Negra” has moved audiences so far.
“The Odyssey” has a much easier path to victory this awards season on paper. Its package of Director, Supporting Actress, Editing, and endless techs is more than enough to justify a win. “La Bola Negra” may be the frontrunner in Adapted Screenplay and International Feature Film, but it is unlikely to snag an acting win, barring an extremely well-orchestrated campaign for standout Guitarricadelafuente. Los Javis could win Director, but it’s an uphill battle when Christopher Nolan is both an immensely respected director and someone who brought a staggering, expensive vision to life exquisitely. As for precursor wins, “La Bola Negra” is more divisive among film critics and might struggle to pick up wins at regional critics’ awards bodies as a result. “The Odyssey” could very well follow in the footsteps of “Oppenheimer” and lead critics’ wins. When it comes to the American guilds, “The Odyssey” absolutely benefits from being a box office phenomenon and from Christopher Nolan being the president of the DGA: you can practically lock up the PGA and DGA wins for the film. And while the BAFTAs and the Golden Globes do tend to award international films more frequently, the HFPA adding a slew of American voters could hurt “La Bola Negra’s” chances of toppling “The Odyssey” at the Globes. Yet key wins at the Globes, the BAFTAs, and the Actor Awards would be enough to keep “La Bola Negra” in the running for a win, provided it at least beats “The Odyssey” in Adapted Screenplay at awards bodies where it fails to win the top prize.
Make no mistake, “The Odyssey” is the safe bet to win Best Picture. But as awards season loves to tell us every year, even the most obvious of races can be upended at a moment’s notice. From “Moonlight” to “Parasite” to “CODA,” there has been no shortage of David vs. Goliath Best Picture races that ultimately went to the underdog. Why not predict David ahead of time for a change?
What do you think of “La Bola Negra’s” Oscar chances? Please let us know in the comments section below and on Next Best Picture’s X account, and check out Next Best Picture’s latest Oscar predictions here.
