Since Cannes, it has been clear that “Sentimental Value” would be one of the top contenders this awards season. Despite its mainstay in nominations in several categories, for a long stretch, it seemed those nominations weren’t turning into wins. That was until Stellan Skarsgård’s Golden Globe win for Best Supporting Actor and the film’s subsequent sweep at the European Film Awards (EFA). There, the film won Picture, Director, Actress (Renate Reinsve), Actor (Skarsgård), Screenplay, and Score. Apart from the joys of the film finally receiving its flowers in a big way this season, it makes one wonder how this could translate to a similarly international body like BAFTA. Obviously, an EFA win doesn’t necessarily work 1-1 with BAFTA; take something like “Triangle of Sadness” that won four EFA awards and zero BAFTAs, but winning in categories like Best Supporting Actor, “Sentimental Value” is already somewhat strong in painting a somewhat different picture. While @Robertdoc1984 wrote about how Skarsgård and Lilleaas could “Shake Up The Supporting Acting Oscar Races With BAFTA Wins,” it’s interesting to look at how EFA specifically impacts its performance in the future at the Oscars.
Since he’s the only one with another win to back him up, it seems only fair to start with whether Skarsgård can win the BAFTA this weekend. The obvious answer is yes, he can; he’s been widely predicted there for a while, and it’s hard to pin down who his competition would be. Some may throw out Paul Mescal in “Hamnet” as a “typical BAFTA pick”, but as his missing the Oscar nomination indicates, people just aren’t really passionate about that performance. The “One Battle After Another” gents haven’t been putting up a fight much in the industry awards, so either of them starting here would be a shock at this point. Suffice to say, Stellan needs to win at BAFTA if he’s going to win at Oscar, and losing at BAFTA would likely just put the Oscar in the hands of whoever wins at the Actor Awards. As is, his missing the Actor nomination really handicaps his chances of winning the Oscar, so all eyes will be on him this Sunday to see if he can solidify his chances of a win there.
Best International Feature Film is a category that also seems to be headed “Sentimental Value’s” way on Oscar night. Despite “The Secret Agent” winning both Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice (the latter of which “Sentimental Value” was ineligible for as a Best Picture nominee), the over-performance at Oscar nominations in comparison to “The Secret Agent” tips the odds in “Sentimental Value’s” favor. The only world where it wouldn’t be the favorite for the Oscar is if it somehow lost at the BAFTA awards. The closest comparison would be something like “American Fiction” or “CODA” winning Best Adapted Screenplay at BAFTA, despite being overall weak there. If “The Secret Agent” wins at the second-to-last televised awards show, it will prompt people to line up behind awarding the film right when Oscar voting kicks off. However, it’s hard to imagine predicting that, considering how well “Sentimental Value” did in its overall nominations at both BAFTA and Oscar. Most likely, “Sentimental Value” will win at BAFTA and then go on to win at the big show in March, but there is certainly a conversation between it and fellow Best Picture nominee “The Secret Agent.”
Best Original Screenplay has been a near-complete sweep for “Sinners” this season, and frankly, even if it loses at BAFTA, it will surely still win at the Oscars due to a more-than-likely WGA win. That said, “Sentimental Value” could edge it out for the win at BAFTA, cementing it as the clear runner-up in the category and boosting its chances in several other categories it’s competitive in at Oscar, including Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, and Best International Feature Film. While most people understandably don’t want to give this race airtime, it’s just an unfortunate truth that historically Black-led and made stories have done worse at BAFTA than nearly anywhere else. It’s not a hard set factor, of course, see the above-mentioned “American Fiction” win at BAFTA for Best Adapted Screenplay, but there are certainly trends of a gross bias that could result in the more European appealing film taking the win. It fits in very snugly with other recent winners with similar sensibilities, such as “Anatomy of a Fall” or “The Banshees of Inisherin,” as well as in another family drama like last year’s “A Real Pain.” There is certainly a world in which Ryan Coogler continues his dominance in this category, but a brief blip in the sweep here would not be remotely surprising.
Despite not carrying over from EFA, another possible win at BAFTA would be Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas in Best Supporting Actress. Similar to Best Supporting Actor, this category has been all over the place this season. Teyana Taylor seems to be the wide prediction, but if BAFTA really loves “Sentimental Value,” Inga could come along for the ride, and if the Actor Awards zags away from Taylor as well, with someone like Amy Madigan in “Weapons” or Wunmi Mosaku in “Sinners,” then perhaps Lilleaas sneaks up to take the Oscar much like how Tilda Swinton did in a fractured race back in 2007. Wins like Best Director, Original Score, and Best Actress for Renate Reinsve at EFA most likely wouldn’t transfer over to BAFTA, as all three categories already have strong competition with obvious frontrunners. There’s a world, however, where “Sentimental Value” takes home four awards this Sunday at BAFTA, and if the European international voting bloc of the Academy is willing to give it that many wins this weekend, then there’s also a world where it takes home up to three Oscars. Perhaps the EFA sweep was prescient of a late surge we may see it take on.
How many BAFTA awards do you think “Sentimental Value” will win this weekend? How many of those do you think would translate over to the Oscars? Please let us know in the comments section below and on our X account, click here here for the most recent tally of awards season winners, here for Next Best Picture’s precursor tracker, and here for our current Oscar predictions.
