There are years like 2010, 2017, and 2023 when the Best Picture field has earned huge rave reviews from both fans and critics, and years like 2011, 2018, and 2021 when reviews aren’t collectively as high. One would think that 2026 has a good chance of being on the better end, between the likes of “The Odyssey,” “La Bola Negra,” “Wild Horse Nine,” “The Invite,” and smashes like “Obsession,” “Project Hail Mary,” and “You Can See Everything.” However, there’s a chance that the 2026 Best Picture field could sink to some of the lowest critical scores of the expanded era.
There are, in all likelihood, 13 top films fighting for 10 Best Picture spots, with only “Dune: Part Three” yet to be seen or reviewed. But as of November 10, the collective scores for this field on Metacritic look a lot less formidable than might be assumed, especially below the top three.
“You Can See Everything”: 97
“The Odyssey”: 88
“All of a Sudden”: 87
“The Invite”: 82
“La Bola Negra,” “Wild Horse Nine,” “Project Hail Mary,” and “Obsession”: 77
“The Debut”: 76
“Artificial”: 75
“Elsinore”: 73
“I Play Rocky”: 68
There are other films like “Possible Love” with a 95, “Wildwood” with an 87, “Tender Loving Care” with an 85, “Club Kid” with an 81, and “Fjord” with an 80. But for the moment, they aren’t being counted among the top tier contenders by most prediction experts. This is due to various disadvantages that these films seem to have, whether that be a bias against their medium, as with “Wildwood,” or the assumption that their studios have other films in the race with slightly better chances.
Yet, if the 13 films listed above are at the front of the pack in the Best Picture race, the overall picture painted by their Metacritic scores doesn’t look as good as it did a few months ago. “La Bola Negra,” “Wild Horse Nine,” and “The Debut” started out in the mid-80s when they first premiered at film festivals, but their scores have gone down as more critics have seen them. That does tend to happen to film festival favorites and is really nothing new, though it seems to be a wider spread phenomenon this year among the seemingly “safest” Best Picture contenders.
Combined with how “Project Hail Mary” and “Obsession” proved to be bigger box office and audience favorites than critical darlings early this year, it forms a rather noticeable pattern. Right now, the magic Metacritic number for the majority of films deemed Best Picture contenders is about 77 or lower. While “The Debut” and “Artificial” could boost themselves back up by the time they come out next month, and “La Bola Negra,” “Elsinore,” and “I Play Rocky” still have some time to get their own scores up, it doesn’t look too likely that any of them could end up at 80 or higher by the time all critics have weighed in.
As it stands, there is a very real situation where there are only two films above 80 either locked or nearly locked for Best Picture nominations: Best Picture favorite “The Odyssey” at 88, and presumed near-lock “The Invite” at a mere 82. And aside from those two, only two other films in this group are above 80: “All of a Sudden” and “You Can See Everything,” yet neither of them can be considered locks.
The other most realistic hope to get a top-scoring film into Best Picture is “Dune: Part Three,” but even that has its obstacles. What if that movie isn’t the threat to win Best Picture that many hope it could be, and instead only ends up like its two predecessors, with scores good enough to just get it into Best Picture but not good enough to threaten the leaders? In fact, considering how “Dune” got in with only a 74 on Metacritic and “Dune: Part Two” only got as high as 79, what if “Dune: Part Three” merely ends up in the mid-70s as well? That would place it near the scores of most other prospective nominees, at the moment.
That is one half of a potential worst-case scenario when it comes to this field’s reviews. The other half is what might happen if both “You Can See Everything” and “All of a Sudden” get snubbed, which is still very possible no matter what critics say. Beyond the presumed “safe” nominees like “The Odyssey,” “La Bola Negra,” “Wild Horse Nine,” “Dune: Part Three,” “The Debut,” “The Invite,” and “Project Hail Mary,” if “You Can See Everything” and “All of a Sudden” take two of the final three spots, they alone could lift the field’s collective scores. Still, the overall Metacritic average wouldn’t be among the best of the era, and wouldn’t approach that of 2025 either. But in this scenario, “You Can See Everything’s” 97 and a final score for “All of a Sudden” close to its current 87 would do a lot of heavy lifting.
On the other hand, what if they both miss and the final three spots go to films below 75 or worse? What if “Elsinore” becomes Focus Features’ nominee this season instead of “Obsession,” and what if “Artificial” becomes NEON’s sole nominee over both “All of a Sudden” and “Fjord?” And most of all, what if “You Can See Everything” is taken out by a far lower reviewed but more traditional film like “I Play Rocky?” In that outcome, only two or three Best Picture nominees would even finish above 80 on Metacritic, none would be in the 90s, and everything else would finish in the 70s – except “I Play Rocky,” which could crack the bottom 10-15 lowest Metacritic scores for a Best Picture nominee in the expanded era.
Most consider 2011, 2018, and 2021 as the three worst Best Picture fields of this era, and reviews have generally backed that up. They are three of the only four Best Picture fields since 2009 to finish with an average Metacritic score below 80, which also includes the 2022 field thanks to nominees like “Elvis,” “Avatar: The Way of Water,” and “Triangle of Sadness.” But if the 2026 field doesn’t have “You Can See Everything” and “All of a Sudden” in it, or “Dune: Part Three” has a mid-80s score or worse, then it will almost certainly end up on that bottom tier of average scores. That might not wind up being the worst of it, given that some aren’t quite counting out the industry pushing “Digger” or “Michael” in too. Despite having Metacritic scores of 46 and 39, respectively, there is still a non-zero chance of industry voters rallying behind one of them. If this happens, that alone would make 2026 the worst rated field of all time, no matter if “You Can See Everything” or “All of a Sudden” somehow get in too.
Those who have raved over many Best Picture contenders this year wouldn’t consider 2026 to be that weak. However, for whatever reason, the most esteemed reviewers – at least those on Metacritic – are not as impressed by presumed safe nominees that aren’t “The Odyssey,” and will have to work extra hard this year to push the bubble films they are high on. But if this is going to be a very low rated field of nominees, what would that point to after nomination morning?
In a scenario where no nominee is remotely close to “The Odyssey’s” review scores, that would seem to suggest it will easily sweep to win Best Picture. Then again, in years with mixed-reviewed nominees like 2018 and 2021, that is when a lower reviewed film like “Green Book” and “CODA” has managed to beat the few rave-reviewed favorites in their way. So if 2026 has that level of mixed reviews, will that actually make it easier for a film like “La Bola Negra,” or even a “Dune: Part Three” in the high 70s or borderline 80s, to overtake “The Odyssey” in a year without much else in terms of highly regarded competition?
That might still be an issue even if “You Can See Everything,” “All of a Sudden,” or maybe some other extra high-scoring film rounds out the field after all. If “You Can See Everything” does make history as the first Best Picture-nominated documentary, thus becoming one of the top reviewed Best Picture nominees in the entire expanded era, that would make its case for actually winning Best Picture way better than if it had to face a stronger field like in 2023 or 2025. This is one of many reasons why “You Can See Everything” and a few other films would really put the 2026 Best Picture lineup in far higher esteem if they did get in, whether they have any hope to win or not. Yet the way things are trending now, and with the way they can still trend lower down the line, there is a growing risk that this year’s field could end up more infamous than revered, and by more than just critics.
What do you think of this year’s Best Picture contenders? Do you think the highly rated “You Can See Everything” or “All of a Sudden” could get nominated? Please let us know in the comments section below and on Next Best Picture’s X account, and check out Next Best Picture’s latest Oscar predictions here.
