There’s a moment in every Emmy ceremony – whether in the Primetime or Creative Arts telecast – just after the envelope is opened and the winner is read that you think…
“How the hell did THAT happen?”
In an era when any number of award precursors seem to pre-determine who the Emmy winners will be, true upsets are increasingly rare. But they do happen, and when they do, there’s the joy of seeing the shocked expression of the newly-crowned winner as they make their way to the stage to deliver a speech that they never thought they’d get the chance to say. It’s the kind of moment that we, the viewers, live for while watching award shows, a moment that sends a thrill down our spine and makes for a memorable awards season.
At first glance, there appears to be little room for upsets this year, as “Severance,” “The Studio,“ and “Adolescence“ are expected to dominate their respective categories. But, upon closer inspection, there are a few categories that either have vulnerable front-runners or the potential for a split vote that could allow a surprise nominee to win. We’ve isolated four categories where this possibility may actually happen and centered on one nominee who – either through Emmy history or strength of performance – could be the one to give us that jaw-dropping surprise upset, adding an element of anticipation to the proceedings.
However, before we get to it, let’s define how we see a true upset. For example, in the Outstanding Drama Actor category, if Adam Scott beats the favored Noah Wyle, that’s not a genuine upset; it’s just the other front-runner winning. For it to really be an upset, a nominee should be ranked no higher than third in our Next Best Picture rankings and preferably even lower than that.
One more thing: These are NOT predictions of what will happen. In fact, there’s an enormous chance that none of these will happen. Yet, there’s still a tiny possibility that they could, and wouldn’t that be fun? So, keep that in mind as we ask, “What if?”
BRYAN CRANSTON – Outstanding Guest Actor in a Comedy Series – “The Studio” (Apple TV+)
For those viewers who know Bryan Cranston only from his fearsome performance in “Breaking Bad,” the brilliance of his physical comedy in “The Studio” might come as a revelation. Of course, those of us who have admired his comic chops since “Malcolm in the Middle” (for which he earned his first three Emmy nominations) are not surprised at his versatility, but even Cranston fans are likely to marvel at what he pulls off in “The Studio’s” season finale. His Griffin Mill, CEO of Continental Pictures, is at a CinemaCon party when he becomes utterly blitzed after ingesting too many mushrooms just before he is about to face the press. Cranston is utterly fearless here, whether tumbling down stairs or being stretched between a gondola and a dock, managing to be both scary and hilarious (often at the same time). Though currently running third in the race for Outstanding Guest Actor in a Comedy Series behind fellow castmate Martin Scorsese and defending champion Jon Bernthal (“The Bear“), Cranston’s work here is something quite special. His skill at physical comedy is a rare thing in contemporary sitcoms, and Cranston manages to deliver it with both nerve and style. Emmy voters may very well take notice.
This category has become a second home for actors from “The White Lotus” in recent years, with five nominees for the show’s second season and four this year. Not surprisingly, those actors are ranked #1 through #4 in our predictions, with the race being seen as between “The White Lotus” co-stars Carrie Coon and Parker Posey. But this year, there’s no unstoppable force like Jennifer Coolidge to sweep the category, and each of the “The White Lotus” women has her own constituencies. This may make the perfect scenario for a true long shot, such as “The Pitt’s” Katherine LaNasa, who is currently ranked sixth in the race. Her Dana Evans, a 32-year nursing veteran and the charge nurse of the emergency room, is the heart and soul of the ER, always there to anticipate what’s needed for the station to function. With consummate skill, LaNasa brings this world-weary hero to life (though that’s the last way that Dana would describe herself). Even as Dana begins to fall apart under the stress she must endure in the ER, LaNasa never does, displaying complete control of a character who is losing hers, demonstrating just the kind of skill that Emmy voters have rewarded in the past and could do again.
SAM ROCKWELL – Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series, “The White Lotus” (HBO Max)
Sometimes it only takes one scene. Whether it’s Peter Dinklage’s “I’m on trial for being a dwarf” speech in “Game of Thrones” or Jeff Daniels’ “America is not the greatest country in the world” monologue in “The Newsroom,” one speech alone can make you the talk of the TV season and win you an Emmy. Oscar winner Sam Rockwell may not be favored to win his first Emmy — he’s currently ranked fifth in the race for Supporting Actor in a Drama Series — but his confession in Episode 5 of “The White Lotus“ was arguably the most talked-about of any this year. Talking in a Thai bar with his friend Rick (fellow nominee Walton Goggins), Rockwell’s Frank reveals that his sex addiction had gotten to the point where he was learning new truths about himself, resulting in unexpected pleasure in a new sexual role. If the material was shocking on the page, Rockwell’s skillfully calm delivery made it riveting. Once you watch his work here, you can’t forget it, and that may very well be true for Emmy voters as well.
MERRITT WEVER – Outstanding Guest Actress in a Drama Series, “Severance” (Apple TV+)
You would think Emmy prognosticators would learn from Merritt Wever’s track record and never count her out. In 2013, when she was nominated for her supporting work in “Nurse Jackie,” she was far from the favorite in the category. She won. In 2018, she was nominated again for her supporting work in the film “Godless,” and again was far from the favorite. She won again. Now, nominated in the Guest Actress in a Drama Series category for her work in “Severance,” Wever is facing the fearsome “The Last of Us” duo of Kaitlyn Dever and Catherine O’Hara and is once again far from the favorite in this race, ranking fourth in our predictions. This time, however, she is a guest starring in the series that’s the odds-on favorite to win the Drama Series Emmy, so her heartbreaking work as a woman who meets the “innie” version of her husband (Emmy nominee Zach Cherry) who offers her the kind of loving affection that she can’t get at home, has been seen and undoubtedly appreciated. Make no mistake, Wever is still a long shot to take home the Emmy. But count her out at your own peril.
Who/what upsets are you hoping and/or predicting will happen at this year’s Emmy Awards? Please let us know in the comments section below or over on our X account and check out our latest Emmy winner predictions here.
