The Toughest 2025 Emmy Races To Call

With yesterday’s announcement of the 2025 Primetime Emmy Nominations, social media has been abuzz with cries of joy and outrage over the surprises and perceived snubs in this year’s nominees. Now that the dust from the announcements has settled somewhat, one thing is clear. “Severance,” “The Studio,“ and “Adolescence“ are all likely to have a very good night when the Emmys are given out on September 14th. The nomination haul for each series — 27, 23, and 13 nominations respectively — shows considerable strength in the craft categories, which is often a key component in winning a series Emmy.

What’s equally evident, however, is that there are far more races whose outcomes aren’t as clear. Many high-profile categories come down to a head-to-head match between the top few contenders in several top series and acting categories. These are the races that give Emmy prognosticators heartburn and Emmy viewers heart palpitations as the envelope containing the winner’s name is being opened.

Emmy fans will continue to debate just who will win all the way to the fall, but here’s your chance to jump ahead of the pack. I’ve selected these eight hotly contested categories to put on your Emmy radar, along with a few comments on where their award strengths (or weaknesses) may lie.

OUTSTANDING DRAMA SERIES — “The Pitt”  vs. “Severance”Every year in the Outstanding Drama Series race, there always seems to be at least one Hot New Thing. In 2022, that hot new thing was “Severance,” Apple TV+’s twisty puzzle of a sci-fi thriller that suddenly everyone wanted to play. It was intriguingly written, superbly acted, and, with its maze-like production design and fluorescent-lit visuals, it simply didn’t look like anything else on television. Unfortunately, that year, it ran into the Emmy buzzsaw that was Season 3 of “Succession,” leaving it only with wins in Main Title Design and for Theodore Shapiro’s haunting musical score. In 2025, however, there’s a new kid on the block called “The Pitt,” and this acclaimed medical drama starring Noah Wyle proves that everything old is new again. Though it feels like a show from the 90s (specifically Wyle’s own “E.R.”), its bold and often graphic emotional take on issues leads the series to places that network television could never go. Both series have developed passionate followings, and their campaigns over the next few weeks will be crucial for each show.

Once again, talk about an apples-and-oranges collection of nominees! For Outstanding Television Movie, we have a 1970s-style action banger, the fourth romance for a beloved romcom heroine, billionaire friends scheming amid a rolling international crisis, Italian grandmothers having a food fight at the stove, and a small army of ghouls in a gorge, ready to pounce. Seriously, how do you choose?

EMMY OUTLOOK: Unlike last year’s Emmy race, which was won by Hulu’s sisterly comedy “Quiz Lady” in a wide-open race, this year we have a number of precursors that can lead us to the category’s front runners. Jeremy Saulnier’s racially tinged thriller “Rebel Ridge,” for example, has already been named the year’s best television movie by the Critics’ Choice Association and has earned nominations from both the Writers Guild and the Producers Guild. “Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy” has earned $140 million at the worldwide box office. Although it was released directly on Peacock in the U.S., it garnered some of the best reviews of any film in the popular series and boasts the heft of a theatrical release. And though HBO’s “Mountainhead” premiered on the final day of Emmy eligibility and thus has no precursors, it is the brainchild of Emmy darling Jesse Armstrong, whose last project, “Succession,” earned 19 Emmys, seven of which were won by Armstrong himself, so attention must be paid. Still, if there’s a slight frontrunner, it may be “Rebel Ridge,” thanks to its guild nominations. But it’s tight.

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES — Jeremy Allen White (“The Bear”) vs. Martin Short (“Only Murders in the Building”) vs. Seth Rogen (“The Studio”)Jeremy Allen White was on a roll. For the past three years, his performance as master chef Carmy Berzatto in FX’s dramatic comedy “The Bear” has been met with justifiable acclaim from critics, audiences, and award bodies. For two years in a row, White has been named the year’s Best Actor from the Emmys, Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild Awards, In fact, just this past January, White earned yet another Golden Globe for “The Bear” for the show’s third season (the same group of episodes that Emmy voters will be considering). But his momentum was stopped in its tracks the very next month when White lost the SAG Award to Martin Short for Hulu’s “Only Murders in the Building,” which also won the Best Ensemble prize over “The Bear.” What looked to be a Short/White showdown for the Emmy was further complicated with the premiere of Apple TV’s “The Studio,” with the performance of its star, Seth Rogen, garnering a level of critical support comparable to that given the front-runners. So now we have a three-man race, whose eventual outcome is anyone’s guess.

EMMY OUTLOOK: But I’ll try. White hasn’t lost an Emmy race yet, but Short’s victory at SAG may be telling, since it is widely known that there is a significant overlap between SAG members and Emmy voters from the Acting Branch of the Academy. Still, White’s fourth season of “The Bear” is currently airing, so his work will be fresh in voters’ minds when final round voting begins on August 18th. However, the fifth season of “Only Murders” is expected to premiere in that time frame as well. The real wild card here is Rogen, whose presence could siphon votes from Short or White (or from neither, which is also a possibility). But if “The Studio” begins winning numerous above-the-line Emmys (and with 23 nominations, it definitely could), Rogen could take it all. Even with the decline in nominations for “Only Murders,” I’m leaning Short for now, given the stats. But the course of this race is still to be written.

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES — Parker Posey vs. Carrie Coon (Both For “The White Lotus”)Supporting actors from “The White Lotus” seem to be drawn to this category like moths to a flame. In fact, in each of the two earlier seasons of the series, no less than five actors from the series have been nominated in this category, an unprecedented feat. (This year, four are here, a majority of the category.) One might think that, with so many nominees from one series, they would cancel each other out, but Jennifer Coolidge defied the odds and won in the series’ first two seasons. But let’s face it, Coolidge is a force of nature who cannot be stopped, so the road ahead for these nominees is likely to be less smooth and the race much tighter.

EMMY OUTLOOK: Though one should never doubt the appeal of fellow nominees Patricia Arquette, Katherine LaNasa, and Julianne Nicholson, I suspect that the race for the Emmy will be among the “The White Lotus” women. Aimee Lou Wood became a household name with her work as a free spirit who can’t help staying with the wrong man, and Natasha Rothwell (a previous nominee for Season 1) gave the season’s final episode extra gravitas with her heart-wrenching crisis of conscience. But, as Emmy prognosticators had predicted all along, this race is most likely between Parker Posey as lorazepam-addicted socialite Victoria Ratliff and Carrie Coon as Laurie Duffy, a woman who suddenly feels betrayed by two of her longest and dearest friends. With Coolidge, Emmy voters honored a masterpiece of high camp, which they may do again with Posey, whose line readings of “Buuuuuudd-hism” and the iconic “PIPER, NO!!!!” are among the most memorable moments of the TV year. But I think the Emmy may go to Coon, particularly for her unforgettable monologue in the season finale on her disappointment at her life that is simply devastating (It can’t hurt that she is also receiving acclaim for her performance in HBO Max’s “The Gilded Age,” which is airing during the voting period ahead).

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES — Walton Goggins (“The White Lotus”) vs. Tramell Tillman (“Severance”) vs. John Turturro (“Severance”)The Emmy race for Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series pits two Emmy vets against a rising first-timer, but in a race this close, seniority may amount to little. John Turturro, a four-time nominee with one win, was tagged as an early front runner after his bravura work in the “Severance” episode “Woe’s Hollow,” in which his character, the long-suffering Irving, attempts to drown the outie Helena (Britt Lower) who is posing as her innie, Helly. But he was later matched in intensity by his co-star Tramell Tillman, who as the firm’s Floor Manager Seth Milchick, who soon finds his very essence being questioned by the Lumon powers-that-be. For his part, Walton Goggins’ Rick Hatchett has come to the White Lotus resort on a quest for vengeance, but his mission to murder is sidetracked by the sweet goodness of his free-spirited girlfriend Chelsea (Aimee Lou Wood). The sheer variety in these three characterizations stands as an example of the wealth of talent on display in this category’s nominees.

EMMY OUTLOOK: Though their competition is formidable, these three are where the race is likely to be won. Turturro is an actor’s actor, and now, after being Emmy-nominated in the show’s first season, his subtle work as Irving has again been recognized, culminating in that powerhouse moment in this season’s fourth episode. In the second half of the show’s season, however, his presence was diminished, which could hurt him. Tillman filled that void late in the season as his dramatic character arc came to a powerful climax. (His moves as a drum major leading a drum-and-bugle corps in Lumon’s basement went viral last spring, never a bad sign for an Emmy campaign.) But I suspect that this season is Goggins’ moment. Never mind his standout work as Hatchett, adding new layers of complexity to his character every week. Goggins was everywhere this spring, from wowing on the carpet at the Met Gala to hosting “Saturday Night Live.” It’s close, but I think Goggins can pull it off.

OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES — Kaitlyn Dever vs. Catherine O’Hara (Both For “The Last of Us”)With so many strong series and an array of superb actors dropping in on them, trying to predict the guest acting categories at the Emmys is always a crapshoot. The variety of nominees in Guest Actress in a Drama Series is particularly striking this year, from Gwendolyn Christie as a goat trainer in “Severance” to Cherry Jones as an outspoken feminist in “The Handmaid’s Tale.” But even before the nominees were announced, Oscar prognosticators had narrowed the race to two very different co-stars in “The Last of Us” – Kaitlyn Dever and Catherine O’Hara.

EMMY OUTLOOK: What’s fascinating about this match-up is the contrasting styles between co-stars. O’Hara, a two-time Emmy winner for her comedic work in “SCTV” and “Schitt’s Creek,” portrays a character who’s not in the video game. Still, one specifically written for the series: Anne, the alcoholic therapist to Pedro Pascal’s Joel. Dever’s character Abby has a connection to Joel as well — he murdered her father years before, and she seeks and gains revenge against him. Both have strong elements in their favor. Emmy voters love it when a comedy star goes dramatic, and O’Hara is particularly compelling in the role. Dever’s achievement is taking a character that was widely disliked among game players and turning her into a young woman whose motivations are clear and even understandable. Since Dever is destined to be the central focus of the series’ third season, I’d give her a slight edge in this race, but this one’s a genuine tossup.

OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES — Cynthia Erivo (“Poker Face”) vs. Julianne Nicholson (“Hacks”) vs. Jamie Lee Curtis (“The Bear”)Guest actress in a comedy series offers an embarrassment of award-winning riches: among them, a Tony-winning star who portrays five characters in a single comedic episode; an Oscar winner playing a helpful executive chef; an Emmy-winning dramatic actress dancing goofily on national TV; and the category’s defending champion who reprises her role of an alcoholic mama bear. With so many acclaimed actors vying for Emmy, this one could go any which way. But if you’re searching for a few favorites to win, I’d look to the dancer, the mama bear, and those five sisters rolled into one.

EMMY OUTLOOK: This one is tough. One paper, it might seem to be a no-brainer: Jamie Lee Curtis won last year, and she probably will this year. And she could — her scenes at the hospital bedside of Abby Elliott’s Sugar served as a moving two-hander that was emotionally potent. Though this is not often a category with repeat winners, a second Emmy would be a deserved win. But what about Cynthia Erivo, whose career is as hot as any actor’s right now, choosing to step up to the challenge of playing five different characters — often with many in the same frame– and making each character fresh and distinctive? That would certainly be worthy of an Emmy. Or Julianne Nicholson, an Emmy-winning dramatic actress playing “Dance Mom,” who has become TikTok famous for dancing goofily around the house? When she hits the big time, however, she begins to descend into darkness, living the high life too well. Again, a worthy win. If I had to pick a favorite, I’d look at the fact that Emmy voters went out of their way to nominate Nicholson for a much lower-profile dramatic role in “Paradise.” Their love for her there, I think, may pay off here.

OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES — Jeffrey Wright (“The Last of Us”) vs. Scott Glenn (“The White Lotus”) vs. Shawn Hatosy (“The Pitt”)Guest Actor in a Drama Series brings us another array of esteemed actors getting down and dirty for the Emmy. Emmy favorite Giancarlo Esposito, for example, has earned his 6th nomination, this time for “The Boys.” Joe Pantoliano (“The Last of Us”) won an Emmy 22 years ago on his sole nomination for “The Sopranos,” the same year that Forest Whitaker (“Andor“) won his first Emmy for producing the Outstanding Television Movie that year, “Door to Door.” But I suspect that this year, the Emmy winner will be among the remaining nominees: Jeffrey Wright (“The Last of Us“) reprising his role from the video game as the ruthless leader of the militia group WLF; Scott Glenn as the owner of the White Lotus Thailand who was secretly the father of Rick Hatchett (Walton Goggins), who’s now on a mission to kill him; and Shawn Hatosy (“The Pitt“) as an E.R. doctor who was once seen as a rival to Noah Wyle’s Dr. Robby. A formidable group indeed.

EMMY OUTLOOK: This is another toss-up without precursors to guide us. Certainly, Wright (for whom this is his sixth nomination with one win for 2004’s “Angels in America”) brings a moral complexity to his militia leader that keeps him from being a mere “bad guy.” Hatosy serves as a powerful bookend to “The Pitt‘s” first season, with parallel scenes on the hospital’s roof featuring Wyle’s Dr. Robby, whose character positions have changed significantly from the first to last episodes. But at this moment at least, I think the 86-year-old Glenn (with his first Emmy nomination) has inched ahead for the win. Though he only physically appears in the final two episodes of “The White Lotus,” his presence is felt even when he is not in the room. That’s a star.

OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES — Jon Bernthal (“The Bear”) vs. Bryan Cranston & Martin Scorsese (“The Studio”)If you examine the nominees, it would seem that Jon Bernthal, last year’s winner in this category for “The Bear,” would have the easiest road to victory of any nominee this year. After all, every other nominee in this category comes from one single show (“The Studio“), and since it stands to reason that Bernthal’s rivals will split that show’s vote five ways, he can skip home to victory, right? Maybe. But if you take a closer look at just who some of his rivals are, that walk in the park might not seem so easy.

EMMY OUTLOOK: This is not to say that Bernthal, along with his castmate Jamie Lee Curtis, would not be worthy repeat guest-cast winners. Bernthal, in particular, was able to show us a different side to Mikey in the episode “Napkins.” Rather than throwing forks as he did in last year’s victorious episode, here he shows an enormous empathy, reaching out to console an emotional Tina (Liza Colón-Zayas) in their very first meeting. On the other hand, “The Studio” guys offer different degrees of a threat. Dave Franco and Anthony Mackie? Congratulations, guys, but it’s not happening. Of the two directors nominated, while sweet Ron Howard has a hilarious knock-down, drag-out physical battle with Matt (Seth Rogen), Martin Scorsese is the real threat here (as he so often is). It’s how Scorsese turns the sincerity of his Jonestown pitch to Matt that turns to abject fury when he realizes that Matt only bought his idea to kill it so that he can make a Kool-Aid movie that is pure comedy gold. But as far as physical comedy is concerned, Cranston’s final two episodes, in which his Griffin Mill is utterly blotto, high on shrooms (among other things), are two for the record books. Cranston is fearless here, whether he’s tumbling down stairs or being stretched between a gondola and a dock; he’s both scary and hilarious. If Emmy voters are looking to be moved, Bernthal’s your man. But if they want laughs with their comedies, Scorsese and (particularly) Cranston are right there for the upset.

We’re still two months away from the 77th Primetime Emmy Awards, which means there’s plenty of time for these races to shift. What do you think are the toughest races to call at the moment? Please let us know in the comments below or over on our X account. We will have our Emmy winner predictions updated shortly and a podcast recap is coming your way later today. You can watch Matt Neglia, Giovanni Lago and Daniel Howat react to the Emmy Nominations here.