With voting now closed for the 97th Academy Awards and just a few weeks left until winners are announced, Best Actress in a Leading Role has become tricky to predict. Demi Moore (“The Substance“) won Best Actress in a Comedy or Musical over Mikey Madison (“Anora“) at the Golden Globes, the first televised award show of the season. Moore delivered an impassioned speech that spoke to what the recognition meant for her, not only in that moment but within the context of her decades-long career. She adds subtext to Elisabeth Sparkle’s journey in Coralie Fargeat’s body horror tale that turns the youth-obsessed beauty and entertainment industry on its head. Moore’s Golden Globe win helped create momentum and narrative, which carried over to the Critics Choice Awards, where she won Best Actress (and Fargeat won Best Original Screenplay).
The gears were in motion for Moore to potentially sweep Best Actress. However, a sweep in all four major acting categories seemed too easy. It does happen, as we’ve seen play out during the 2017-18 award season, with Gary Oldman (“Darkest Hour“), Frances McDormand and Sam Rockwell (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri“), and Allison Janney (“I, Tonya“). But this season is a lot more chaotic and sporadic. Three major Best Picture awards have gone to three films: “The Brutalist” (Golden Globe), “Anora” (Critics Choice Award), and “Conclave” (BAFTA). Once the guilds rolled around post-CCA, Sean Baker had his greatest awards weekend ever when “Anora” won the Producers Guild Award (PGA) and Directors Guild Award (DGA). Baker also won the Writers Guild Award (WGA) for Best Original Screenplay a week later. Based on these outcomes, the consistency of “Anora” may have been underestimated all along this season. Before Baker’s fairytale scenario of award wins, “Anora” did not miss any key nominations from major awards groups. The film landed exactly where it was projected to at the Golden Globes, BAFTAs, and SAG, whereas “The Substance” floated in and out of categories.
Depending on which film wins Best Cast/Ensemble at SAG, “Anora” could receive another boost for its Best Picture chances. While the scenario of “Anora” losing to “Conclave” could indicate some frontrunner vulnerability for the former, the BAFTAs have suggested that Mikey Madison could win Best Actress without “Anora” winning Best Picture. A similar point can be made about Moore, who has already won two significant awards without a Best Picture win for “The Substance” and whose industry narrative exists outside the film. However, Moore did not sweep, indicating she is vulnerable, even with a strong narrative. BAFTA was always a possibility for Madison (who gives one of the most awarded performances of the season), and the momentum shifted to “Anora” at the perfect time: when Oscar voting was still underway. Madison has the advantage of starring in the current Best Picture frontrunner, still leads the category’s precursor wins from several critics’ groups, and now has a major industry award. Her BAFTA win maintains the consistent love for “Anora,” which also won Best Casting and received 5 additional nominations, including Best Film.
There is something to be said for Moore missing a BAFTA win. While “The Substance” appeared in 11 of the BAFTA’s longlisted categories and received five nominations, the film missed two key categories: Best Film (in a lineup of five) and Best Supporting Actress (Margaret Qualley). The film received nominations in both these categories at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards, where Moore won Best Actress. With the BAFTAs showing more love to “Anora” and spreading the wealth overall by breaking Moore’s sweep, “The Substance” lacks industry support by comparison. If the film’s BAFTA misses for Best Film and Qualley were the writing on the wall, could the film’s SAG misses for Best Cast/Ensemble and Qualley lead to another loss for Moore? “The Substance” still has the strength of a Best Picture nomination at the Oscars, and Moore has industry support with all the momentum and goodwill around her in Hollywood, which can be enough for SAG to overlook their thoughts on the film itself. Plus, BAFTA does not seem as enamored with narratives or comebacks as much as SAG. A recent example would be when Austin Butler (2022) won Best Actor at the BAFTAs over Brendan Fraser (2022), who won SAG and went on to win the Oscar.
Moore can still win SAG without a BAFTA, but in the long run, a BAFTA win alone could be more beneficial for Madison. Having delivered a major televised speech before Oscar voting closed, Madison would not need a SAG win as much as Moore. “Anora” has two SAG nominations beyond Madison: Best Supporting Actor (Yura Borisov) and Best Cast/Ensemble, while Demi Moore has the lone SAG nomination for “The Substance.” The horror elements might not be everyone’s cup of tea, nor does SAG typically award horror-centric performances in this category (though one can argue Natalie Portman in “Black Swan“). But actors do love a narrative. This sentiment often plays out with Best Actress winners here, from Julianne Moore (2014) and Glenn Close (2018) to Michelle Yeoh (2022) and Lily Gladstone (2023). 
Statistically, Moore’s chances look better at SAG. All the past four SAG winners for Best Actress – Gladstone, Yeoh, Jessica Chastain (2021), and Viola Davis (2020) – had a strong narrative and plenty of love from the actors’ branch. All four also managed to win at SAG without a BAFTA. Going back a little further, Glenn Close (2018), Jennifer Lawrence (2012), and Viola Davis (2011) fit this distinction. Lawrence did not have the seasoned veteran narrative, but she was a previous Oscar nominee for “Winter’s Bone,” and her career soared in 2012 (with “The Hunger Games” released in the same year), putting her on the map. Madison is newer to the industry and the actors’ branch in general, though she has previously appeared in high-profile films (“Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood” and “Scream“). Most telling, “Anora” is the definition of a star-making leading role in a film poised to win Best Picture.
SAG has often followed a path of awarding the stars of would-be Best Picture winners. Since SAG has been around (1994), Gwyneth Paltrow (1998), Hilary Swank (2004), Frances McDormand (2020), and Michelle Yeoh (2022) all won the Oscar for Best Actress after winning either SAG and/or BAFTA when their films won the Oscar for Best Picture. Except for Annette Bening (1999) and Renée Zellweger (2002), there has not been a time when the Best Actress nominee from the eventual Best Picture winner who won one of those two precursors then didn’t go on to win the Oscar as well. Bening and Zellweger lost the Oscar to the Golden Globe winners in their respective years. No one has ever won just the Golden Globe and gone on to win the Oscar for Best Actress since 2000; Fernanda Torres could reignite this statistic with “I’m Still Here” if both Moore and Madison lose at SAG. Julie Christie (2007), Glenn Close (2018), and Cate Blanchett (2022) are the only three to win three televised awards and lose Best Actress at the Oscars; Moore could join this statistic if she wins at SAG and loses the Oscar.
With SAG voting still underway and set to close on February 21st, have Madison’s chances surged at the right time again? Or will SAG’s tendency to award veteran actors work in Moore’s favor? Both gave two of the most celebrated and critically acclaimed performances of 2024. The former has an iconic Hollywood status and a strong narrative that fellow actors love to celebrate. The latter stars in our current Best Picture frontrunner and carries the afterglow of a well-performing film. “The Substance” may have had everyone talking before, but “Anora” is buzzing in the industry currently.
While the eventual SAG winner’s televised speech won’t have any bearing on Academy voting, the outcome can indicate a few scenarios: Moore’s narrative outside “The Substance” is still striking a chord (regardless of whether her film is enough voters’ cup of tea), the revived momentum for “Anora” is taking Madison along for the ride, or an unprecedented surprise is in store. If Madison loses to Moore, the Best Actress race will still be a toss-up. If both lose SAG, this could make room for Torres at the Oscars. Torres maintained an active presence that could materialize behind the scenes, and her film received a surprise Best Picture nomination. But Madison, even without a SAG win, would still have the strength of winning the BAFTA and starring in the Best Picture frontrunner.
Who will win at SAG this Sunday? Demi Moore? Mikey Madison? Or someone else? And what impact will this have on our final predictions for the 97th Academy Awards when the Best Actress envelope is opened? Please let us know in the comments section below or on our X account, and be sure to check out our latest Oscar predictions here.
