“Disclosure Day” is not only the first big-budget Steven Spielberg blockbuster in eight years, but also the rare Spielberg movie in this era that seemingly isn’t tailor-made for Oscar season. With films like “Lincoln,” “Bridge of Spies,” “The Post,” “West Side Story,” “The Fabelmans,” and other Oscar bait making up most of Spielberg’s recent resume, it is easy to think his return to UFOs in “Disclosure Day” is the rare Spielberg film he isn’t making just to get Oscars. Nevertheless, it has never really mattered whether Spielberg is aiming for awards or summer box office, as virtually every big-screen movie he’s ever made has been Oscar-nominated for something, which suggests “Disclosure Day” joining the club in some way as well.
“Disclosure Day” marks the 34th film Spielberg has released into theaters and directed entirely by himself. Out of the previous 33, only five have ever come and gone without a single Oscar nomination, suggesting very long odds for “Disclosure Day” to become the sixth. The first to be completely snubbed was 1974’s “The Sugarland Express,” which has the extenuating circumstance of being Spielberg’s very first theatrical film. Once he became a superstar with “Jaws” and everything that followed, virtually all his movies were guaranteed some kind of nomination and awards attention, whether they actually won anything or not.
Even the infamous bomb “1941” received three technical nominations in 1979 for Best Visual Effects, Best Sound, and Best Cinematography. And even when it came to ‘lesser’ 80s Spielberg films like “Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom,” “Empire of the Sun,” and “Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade,” they all received technical nominations while both “Indiana Jones” sequels each won one. But since Spielberg’s 1989 romantic/ghost story “Always” wasn’t bailed out by action or blockbuster effects, it became the first Spielberg film in 15 years to go without nominations.
It literally took another 15 years for another Spielberg film to blank at the Oscars, and it, too, was a lighter, less effects-driven film in “The Terminal” with Tom Hanks in 2004. However, it only took five years for the next complete Spielberg snub, as “Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull” turned out to be unpopular with Oscar voters – visual effects and all – as it was with many hardcore fans. To date, the only Spielberg movie without nominations after that was another visually driven film, yet 2016’s “The BFG” and its giant creatures still came up empty.
“The BFG,” “Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull,” “The Terminal,” and “Always” are regularly considered among the worst or lesser Spielberg films of his career, so it may be no mystery that they stand alone as his worst films at the Oscars, too. Regardless, other films regularly ranked at the bottom of Spielberg’s resume still managed to get at least one token nomination, albeit just in techs.
“Hook” received five nominations in 1991, while otherwise panned films like “The Lost World: Jurassic Park” and “Ready Player One” each got one nomination for Best Visual Effects. John Williams also helped get many a Spielberg film into the Oscars, as he got “The Adventures of Tintin” its only nomination in 2012, and got one of the two nominations for “A.I. Artificial Intelligence” in 2001. In addition, “Minority Report” only made it into Best Sound Editing in 2002, which was also one of the three nominations for “War of the Worlds” in 2005.
Whether due to the safety nets of visual effects or Williams’ music, Spielberg’s star power, or his tailor-made historical movies, the Oscars will almost always take notice of any Spielberg film in some manner, and have done so for over 50 years running. Only a very select few directors have ever had such a track record, no matter what kind of movie they are making or who their audience is.
As such, even if “Disclosure Day” is Spielberg’s first full-on adventure story and alien movie in many years, instead of an Oscar-bait film like “The Fabelmans,” “Bridge of Spies,” or “Lincoln,” it is still a Spielberg movie – and therefore something that has to be on a few Oscar shortlists. The only way it might not be is if it has the same kind of low ratings and lukewarm audiences that “The BFG,” “The Terminal,” “Always,” and “Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull” had. Yet even then, nominations for lower-regarded Spielberg films like “Ready Player One,” “The Adventures of Tintin,” “1941,” and “The Lost World: Jurassic Park” prove such reactions aren’t always totally disqualifying.
Best Visual Effects and Best Score are almost always guaranteed nominations for Spielberg films, especially in an age where audiences long for blockbusters to look and feel like Spielberg’s epic heyday, and especially in a time where any Williams score for a Spielberg film could be his last. But given how “Disclosure Day” is purposefully shrouded in mystery over Spielberg’s latest crop of aliens, the biggest visual effects and whether they are up to snuff or not are surely being hidden right to the end.
Beyond that, there aren’t many awards season expectations for “Disclosure Day” other than its visuals and music, and not just because it isn’t being marketed as an Oscar season movie. Yet the first social media reactions have all raved over Emily Blunt’s leading human performance – and given that she finally became an Oscar nominee for her last blockbuster from an A-list director in “Oppenheimer,” perhaps a bigger-than-expected run for “Disclosure Day” can put Blunt into consideration again, depending on how crowded or thin Best Actress is the rest of the year. Still, “Disclosure Day” as a whole may need other fields to become far less crowded than everyone expects right now.
In a year where “Project Hail Mary” already set the bar for potential Oscar-nominated blockbusters, where “The Odyssey” is widely projected to set it far higher next month, and where “Dune: Part Three” is waiting in the wings this winter, there might be too little room for “Disclosure Day” to join in as another blockbuster crossover. It would have to be both a word-of-mouth sensation and rank among the best Spielberg films in decades to stake a claim, and this week will answer soon enough whether it can reach either of these high bars.
In decades past, no one doubted whether a Spielberg summer epic could be a massive hit or whether there were still audiences for completely original big-budget blockbusters. But in 2026, with decidedly mixed track records for both non-IP and select IP would-be hits alike, with younger horror directors like Curry Barker and Kane Parsons making all the headlines and new waves in Hollywood this summer, and with the likes of Christopher Nolan and Ryan Coogler carrying the torch for Oscar-worthy blockbusters in this generation, Spielberg’s return to blockbusters, aliens and original storytelling carries more skepticism than blind faith going in.
Is there still a place for a director like Spielberg to make a film like “Disclosure Day” catch fire with today’s audiences? And what does it mean for original non-horror movies, and Spielberg’s generation of filmmaking as a whole, if it doesn’t stand out in a summer that already has new horror icons, already saw a “Star Wars” movie collapse instantly, and is still waiting for Nolan, Spider-Man, the Minions, “Supergirl,” and another “Toy Story” to steal everyone’s attention?
Yet, whatever the critical and audience reactions to “Disclosure Day,” Spielberg’s track record suggests it would have to be a true disaster not to receive any Oscar season recognition, even if only for visuals or music. In that context, the road ahead for “Disclosure Day” to match the Spielberg of old doesn’t seem so daunting.
Have you seen “Disclosure Day” yet? If so, what do you think of it? Do you think it will be another Oscar-nominee for Steven Spielberg? If so, in which categories? Please let us know in the comments section below and on Next Best Picture’s X account.
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