This year’s SAG nominations, now renamed the Actor Awards, certainly threw a grenade into this awards race. The shocking omission of “Sentimental Value” altogether left four or five significant gaps in the race, leading to a few surprises. It also makes the race harder to dissect. Even so, most of the major contenders stuck around, like “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners,” as we head into the Golden Globes this weekend. There’s a lot to discuss with these Actor Award nominations, so let’s break down each category to figure out how they will affect the Oscar race.
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A CAST ENSEMBLE
So what happened with “Sentimental Value?” It’s a top-tier Oscar contender, looking at four acting nominations, and it didn’t get a single one. It’s so egregious it seemed like it must’ve been some strange eligibility rule, but no, the Norwegian film was confirmed to be eligible. It’s as simple as this: SAG-AFTRA is a populist, very large (over 100,000 members), American guild, complete with social media influencers in the mix. The typical view is that foreign films don’t perform well here, but that’s simply not true. “Parasite” won Outstanding Performance by a Cast in 2019. “Emilia Pérez” received three nominations, including Cast. So is “Sentimental Value” just weaker than we thought? The answer simply has to be no. If it had received just one nomination, it would seem weak. Receiving zero nominations seems like an anomaly. Chalk it up to a strange preference, but this otherwise does not affect my Oscar predictions.
Elsewhere, the nominees for Outstanding Performance by a Cast were reasonably expected: “One Battle After Another,” “Sinners,” “Hamnet,” “Marty Supreme,“ and “Frankenstein.“ All five are presumed safe Best Picture nominees with acting nominations in the mix, so nothing is surprising here. On the other hand, a film like “Wicked: For Good,“ which has still been hanging around in predictions, especially since it overperformed at last year’s SAG award nominations, missed an Outstanding Cast nomination. Other films that had faded over the last month or two, like “Jay Kelly“ and “Wake Up Dead Man,“ missed here. And of course, no other non-English language films landed here either, like “The Secret Agent“ or “It Was Just an Accident.”
OUTSTANDING STUNT ENSEMBLE
No surprises at all in the Stunt Ensemble category, unless you really expected “Avatar: Fire and Ash” to make it. “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners” made it in, along with “Frankenstein.” As expected, “Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning” and “F1,” two of the biggest stunt-driven films of the year, made it in. No “Superman,” but otherwise this is a straightforward category.
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR
After her Critics’ Choice Award win last weekend, it’s no surprise Jessie Buckley scored a nomination and will likely steamroll the rest of the season. Joining her are Rose Byrne, Emma Stone, Chase Infiniti, and Kate Hudson. None are genuine surprises, though with Renate Reinsve missing here, we can at least assume one of the five Actor Award nominees will be bumped out. Byrne, whose film seemed to have an uphill battle without broader Academy support, has sailed through, getting nominations everywhere she needs to. Infiniti has as well, not missing anywhere, thanks to the strength of “One Battle After Another.” Some remain doubtful of her nomination due to her age and borderline supporting performance, but there’s little reason to doubt her at this point, even if she misses BAFTA. Stone was assumed to be a weaker contender this year, but, like “Frankenstein,” “Bugonia” has continued to grow stronger and stronger as the year has rolled on. She’s clearly an Academy favorite and could easily still get another nomination. Finally, Hudson. She received a Golden Globe nomination, but the film hasn’t taken off at the box office as hoped. Still, an Actor nomination is nothing to sneeze at.
Other than Reinsve, the only other notable misses here are Cynthia Erivo and Amanda Seyfried. Both of their films have nearly faded into oblivion, so it’s not a huge surprise. So, who’s missing for Reinsve? The easiest answer is Hudson, who has the weakest film in the bunch for numerous reasons. But is that too simple? Maybe “One Battle After Another” slightly underperforms, and Infiniti misses. Or “Bugonia” is a red herring, and Stone isn’t as strong as it appears.
Oh, who am I kidding? I just can’t logic my way into predicting Hudson. She can still make it, but it would still be a bit of a surprise.
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR
Will Timothee Chalamet become the first person to win back-to-back Actor Awards? He won last year, though he lost the Oscar to Adrien Brody. His Critics’ Choice Awards win last weekend, and a great speech alongside it, could have helped him break out in a crowded race. Joining him are the other frontrunners Leonardo DiCaprio and Ethan Hawke. At this point, they all still feel strong, and a case could be made for any of the three of them to win. Michael B. Jordan, too, had been doubted early on because of the Academy’s hesitation to nominate blockbusters. And yet he hasn’t missed a single time.
The only slight surprise here was a nomination for Jesse Plemons, another show of support for “Bugonia.” Joel Edgerton missed despite a CCA nomination. Unsurprisingly, Wagner Moura missed as well, yet another sign of the lack of love for non-English language films. Many had predicted that this was the last place Dwayne Johnson could still show up, given the populist voting bloc, but that never panned out for him or Emily Blunt. No Jeremy Allen White either, or Oscar Isaac, despite the Cast nomination.
As in Best Actress, the conventional wisdom would be to remove the weakest link, Plemons, and replace him with Moura or Edgerton. While both “The Secret Agent” and “Train Dreams” have risen in the last month or two, and both seem more secure than ever for a Best Picture nomination, the Academy is very friendly to non-English performances. I would give Moura the edge.
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
No other category got as much of a shakeup as Best Supporting Actress, thanks to two missing nominees from “Sentimental Value.” First, the time to doubt Amy Madigan is far from over. She’s now gotten in everywhere and won Critics’ Choice. At this point, it would be absurd for her to miss. Other presumed safe nominees, Teyana Taylor and Ariana Grande, both landed here as well. Joining them is Wunmi Mosaku, who, like Michael B. Jordan, has shown a lot more strength than was expected for a blockbuster horror film. Two acting horror nominations in the same category would be pretty remarkable. Odessa A’zion finally received a nomination as well, giving her a leg up on the race from her co-star, Gwyneth Paltrow. The only other missing performer is Emily Blunt, who had previously received attention from SAG even while missing in other places, but that doesn’t seem to have panned out.
So are both the “Sentimental Value” women in? If so, it’s tough to make a case for Mosaku and A’zion making the cut still, and Taylor, Grande, or Madigan missing. But could either Elle Fanning or Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas miss with the Academy too? If so, I would give the edge to Lilleaas, who has consistently received more praise and been singled out much more than Fanning. If Fanning missed, I give the edge to Mosaku, who could surprise with a BAFTA nomination. Her getting a nomination makes a lot of sense if the Academy really goes for “Sinners.” This is a tough category to figure out with “Sentimental Value” inexplicably missing.
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
All season, Best Supporting Actor has seemed the most straightforward category, with six actors vying for the five spots. That seemed to be shaken up a bit with today’s Actor nominations. Four of the presumed six made it in: Benicio del Toro, Sean Penn, Paul Mescal, and Jacob Elordi, whose films all have Outstanding Cast nominations. Stellan Skarsgard missed, as we’ve already discussed, which leaves the last of the presumed safe six: Adam Sandler. One would have assumed that if SAG-AFTRA didn’t like “Sentimental Value,” Sandler would simply take Skarsgard’s spot. Instead, Sandler missed, and Miles Caton got in instead. Sandler had been widely predicted to receive an Actor nomination all season, after receiving a nomination for “Hustle” in 2022. It’s fairly shocking for him to have missed here. There’s no other way to say it: Sandler’s done. If he couldn’t get a nomination here, with a voting body that’s theoretically the most prone to go for him, it’s tough to imagine the Academy doing it.
As amazing as it would be for Caton to get in, the most straightforward answer may be the correct one: replace him with Skarsgard, and there’s your Oscar five. After these nominations, it’s almost unfathomable for this category to go a different way (Cue the shocks).
These are the last high-profile acting nominations we’ll get before the Oscar nominations, as the BAFTA nominations will be announced after. That means we won’t really get much more clarity, other than Globe winners, before making our final predictions. As all the guild nominations continue to roll out, the race is becoming ever clearer, even with absurd snubs like “Sentimental Value.”
What was the biggest shock of the nominees or you today? How do these nominations affect your Oscar predictions? Please let us know your thoughts on our X account. Click here for more upcoming awards season dates, here for the most recent tally of awards season winners, here for our precursor tracker, and here for our current Oscar predictions.
