Tomorrow, the Academy Of Motion picture Arts & Sciences will announce the Oscar shortlists for the 98th Academy Awards in twelve categories including Best Animated Short, Casting, Cinematography, Documentary Feature, Documentary Short, International Feature Film, Live Action Short, Makeup & Hairstyling, Original Score, Original Song, Sound, and Visual Effects. We’re going to dive into all categories (minus the shorts as to what we believe might show up tomorrow).
Casting
The Casting category remains the year’s biggest wildcard. It’s unclear whether voters will treat it as a de facto ensemble award, a career recognition honor, or a reflection of casting difficulty. Before final voting, branch members will view presentations outlining the challenges behind each shortlisted film, but that stage has not yet occurred. For now, the safest predictions balance Best Picture contenders, ensemble-heavy films, and high-profile casting directors.
F1: The Movie — Emily Brockmann, Lucy Bevan
Frankenstein — Robin D. Cook
Hamnet — Nina Gold
Jay Kelly — Douglas Aibel, Nina Gold
Marty Supreme — Jennifer Venditti
One Battle After Another — Cassandra Kulukundis
Sentimental Value — Yngvill Kolset Haga, Avy Kaufman
Sinners — Francine Maisler
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery — Bret Howe, Mary Vernieu
Wicked: For Good — Tiffany Little Canfield, Bernard Telsey
Alternates:
A House of Dynamite — Susanne Scheel
It Was Just an Accident — Jafar Panahi
The Phoenician Scheme — Douglas Aibel
Rental Family — Kei Kawamura, Yumi Takada
Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere — Francine Maisler
Weapons — Allison Jones
Cinematography
For the first time since 1979, the Academy’s Cinematography Branch will announce a shortlist of semifinalists for the Cinematography Award before selecting the final five nominees. Unlike some categories, which have a consistent set of ten films on the shortlist, the cinematography shortlist can range from ten to twenty films.
For this exercise, we’re predicting a complete list of 20. The cinematography branch tends toward Best Picture contenders (“One Battle After Another,” “Sentimental Value,” “Sinners,” “Train Dreams”); films shot by former nominees or winners (“Ballad of a Small Player,” “Bugonia,” “F1: The Movie,” “Hedda,” “Is This Thing On?,” “Nuremberg,” “The Phoenician Scheme”); and films that fall into both categories (“Frankenstein,” “Hamnet,” “Jay Kelly,” “Marty Supreme”). Netflix has performed well at the shortlist phase in recent years, so don’t be surprised to see “Nouvelle Vague,” “Ballad of a Small Player,” or “A House of Dynamite” here. Two-thirds of former nominees return, and “Nouvelle Vague” is in black and white, which the branch has historically embraced.
“Wicked: For Good” has been criticized for its cinematography, but so was the first film, which still managed an ASC nomination and benefited from broad exposure. “Avatar: Fire and Ash” could easily take its place if the cinematography branch is willing to embrace a film that is almost entirely CGI (they did in 2009; they did not in 2022). We also expect international voters to exert influence. Thus, we’re predicting “Sentimental Value” (bolstered by its Best Picture status), “No Other Choice,” which has received a strong campaign from Neon, and “Sound of Falling,” which recently placed second at the Camerimage Awards — a festival with a historically strong correlation to Oscar cinematography nominations. Finally, perhaps wishful thinking, “The Testament of Ann Lee,” which has been widely praised for its cinematography despite missing several precursor mentions.
Ballad of a Small Player — James Friend
Bugonia — Robbie Ryan
F1: The Movie — Claudio Miranda
Frankenstein — Dan Laustsen
Hamnet — Łukasz Żal
Hedda — Sean Bobbitt
Jay Kelly — Linus Sandgren
Marty Supreme — Darius Khondji
No Other Choice — Kim Woo-hyung
Nouvelle Vague — David Chambille
One Battle After Another — Michael Bauman
Sinners — Autumn Durald Arkapaw
Sound of Falling — Fabian Gamper
The Testament of Ann Lee — William Rexer
Train Dreams — Adolpho Veloso
Alternates:
28 Years Later — Anthony Dod Mantle
A House of Dynamite — Barry Ackroyd
Avatar: Fire and Ash — Russell Carpenter
Die My Love — Seamus McGarvey
Is This Thing On? — Matthew Libatique
It Was Just an Accident — Amin Jafari
Nuremberg — Dariusz Wolski
The Phoenician Scheme — Bruno Delbonnel
The Secret Agent — Evgenia Alexandrova
Sentimental Value — Kaspar Tuxen
Weapons — Larkin Seiple
Wicked: For Good — Alice Brooks
Documentary Feature
2000 Meters to Andriivka
The Alabama Solution
Apocalypse in the Tropics
Come See Me in the Good Light
Cover-Up
Deaf President Now!
The Librarians
Mr. Nobody Against Putin
My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow
Orwell: 2 + 2 = 5
The Perfect Neighbor
Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk
Riefenstahl
Seeds
The Tale of Silyan
Alternates:
BLKNWS: Terms and Conditions
Cutting Through Rocks
It’s Never Over, Jeff Buckley
My Mom Jayne
Predators
International Feature
Expect to see “the NEON five” all represented here. After that, for the other ten slots, we’re going with titles that have been campaigned very well with a lot of buzz behind them. Though, we do expect anywhere from 2-5 of these to not make the final list.
All That’s Left of You (Jordan)
Belén (Argentina)
Homebound (India)
It Was Just an Accident (France)
Kokuho (Japan)
Left-Handed Girl (Taiwan)
My Father’s Shadow (United Kingdom)
No Other Choice (South Korea)
Palestine 36 (Palestine)
The President’s Cake (Iraq)
The Secret Agent (Brazil)
Sentimental Value (Norway)
Sirāt (Spain)
Sound of Falling (Germany)
The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)
Alternates:
2000 Meters to Andriivka
Late Shift
Little Trouble Girls
The Love That Remains
Magellan
Makeup & Hairstyling
The Makeup & Hairstyling shortlist can be unpredictable. Some years favor prosthetic-heavy transformations, while others lean toward hairstyling showcases. This year has been particularly strong for prosthetics.
The extensive work in “Frankenstein,” “Sinners,” “The Smashing Machine,” and “Wicked: For Good” makes them near-locks. “Hamnet” and “One Battle After Another” should also benefit from their Best Picture frontrunner status, along with the presence of shortlist regular Arjen Tuiten on “One Battle After Another” who could potentially bring “Wolf Man” along as well.
“Christy” boasts its own shortlist regular in Adruitha Lee, who has appeared five times previously. The film makes Sydney Sweeney and Ben Foster nearly unrecognizable while convincingly depicting the bruising and swelling of fight-related injuries. Warner Bros. has aggressively campaigned “Superman” below the line, with support from former winner Peter Swords King. Finally, “Weapons” created an iconic look for Amy Madigan’s Aunt Gladys, making it difficult to imagine the performance without acknowledging the makeup.
Christy — Ashleigh Chavis, Adruitha Lee
Frankenstein — Mike Hill, Cliona Furey, Jordan Samuel
Hamnet — Nicole Stafford
The Smashing Machine — Felix Fox, Kazu Hiro, Mia Neal
One Battle After Another — Ahou Mofid, Heba Thorisdottir, Arjen Tuiten
Sinners — Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine, Siân Richards, Shunika Terry
Superman — Alexei Dmitriew, Peter Swords King, Shane Mahan
Weapons — Jason Collins, Leo Satkovich, Melizah Anguiano Wheat
Wicked: For Good — Laura Blount, Mark Coulier, Frances Hannon
Wolf Man — Arjen Tuiten
Alternates:
28 Years Later — Flora Moody, John Nolan
Blue Moon — Liz Byrne
Bugonia — Torsten Witte
Hedda — Francesco Alberico, Sharon Martin, Niamh O’Loan
Jay Kelly — Ivana Primorac, Dimitris Giannetos, Ann Pala Williams
Kiss of the Spider Woman — Maya Hardinge, Scott Barnes, Michelle Johnson
Marty Supreme — Michael Fontaine, Kyra Pachenko, Kay Georgiou
Nouvelle Vague — Turid Follvik, Franck-Pascal Alquinet
Nuremberg — Jan Sewell
Song Sung Blue — Anouck Sullivan, Alicia Zavarella
Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere — Jackie Risotto, Jameson Eaton
Warfare — Paul Gooch, Tristan Versluis
Score
Since 2018, the Academy’s Music Branch has released a shortlist for Original Score. From 2018 through 2023, the shortlist consisted of 15 films; in 2024, it expanded to 20.
Several patterns are worth noting. The branch favors regulars such as Nicholas Britell, Alexandre Desplat, Ludwig Göransson, Daniel Pemberton, Volker Bertelmann, Terence Blanchard, Carter Burwell, Harry Gregson-Williams, Alberto Iglesias, Thomas Newman, Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross, Alan Silvestri, John Williams, and Hans Zimmer. Beyond these names, recurring nominees tend to fare better.
Historically, roughly 30 percent of shortlisted scores come from Best Picture nominees, and a majority of shortlisted films receive nominations in other categories. Additionally, the shortlist is rarely all male, and at least one animated film has appeared every year.
Industry promotion also plays a role. Deadline’s Sound & Screen event this year featured “Avatar: Fire and Ash,” “Captain America: Brave New World,” “The Fantastic Four: First Steps,” “Frankenstein,” “A House of Dynamite,” “Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere,” “Sinners,” and “Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery.”
With those factors in mind, we’re predicting the following:
Avatar: Fire and Ash — Simon Franglen
Bugonia — Jerskin Fendrix
F1: The Movie — Hans Zimmer
The Fantastic Four: First Steps — Michael Giacchino
Frankenstein — Alexandre Desplat
Hamnet — Max Richter
Hedda — Hildur Guðnadóttir
A House of Dynamite — Volker Bertelmann
Jay Kelly — Nicholas Britell
Marty Supreme — Daniel Lopatin
Nuremberg — Brian Tyler
One Battle After Another — Jonny Greenwood
Sentimental Value — Hania Rani
Sinners — Ludwig Göransson
Sirāt — Kangding Ray
The Testament of Ann Lee — Daniel Blumberg
Train Dreams — Bryce Dessner
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery — Nathan Johnson
Wicked: For Good — John Powell & Stephen Schwartz
Zootopia 2 — Michael Giacchino
Alternates:
The Bad Guys 2 — Daniel Pemberton
Ballad of a Small Player — Volker Bertelmann
Captain America: Brave New World — Laura Karpman
Dead Man’s Wire — Danny Elfman
Elio — Rob Simonsen
In Your Dreams — John Debney
Is This Thing On? — James Newberry
The Lost Bus — James Newton Howard
The Mastermind — Rob Mazurek
Materialists — Daniel Pemberton
Rental Family — Jónsi & Alex Somers
Song
Clothed by the Sun — The Testament of Ann Lee
Dear Me — Diane Warren: Relentless
Dream as One — Avatar: Fire and Ash
Drive — F1: The Movie
The Girl in the Bubble — Wicked: For Good
Golden — KPop Demon Hunters
Highest 2 Lowest — Highest 2 Lowest
I Lied to You — Sinners
Just Keep Watching — F1: The Movie
Last Time (I Seen the Sun) — Sinners
No Place Like Home — Wicked: For Good
Salt Then Sour Then Sweet — Come See Me in the Good Light
Took a Walk — The Long Walk
Train Dreams — Train Dreams
Zoo — Zootopia 2
Sound
Recent sound shortlists have favored blockbusters and music-heavy films. While inspired picks like “Sirāt” or “Marty Supreme” would be welcome, history suggests a more commercially driven lineup.
Avatar: Fire and Ash — Brent Burge, Alexis Feodoroff, Michael Hedges, Julian Howarth, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle
Frankenstein — Greg Chapman, Christian Cooke, Nelson Ferreira, Nathan Robitaille, Brad Zoern
F1: The Movie — Gareth John, Al Nelson, Juan Peralta, Gary A. Rizzo, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning — Chris Burdon, Lloyd Dudley, James H. Mather, Mark Taylor, Cécile Tournesac
One Battle After Another — José Antonio Garcia, Christopher Scarabosio, Tony Villaflor
Sinners — Steve Boeddeker, Ben Burtt, David V. Butler, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor, Chris Welcker
Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere — David Giammarco, Tod A. Maitland, Paul Massey, Eric A. Norris
Superman — Lance Acord, Chris Boyes, Tim LeBlanc, Lee Orloff, Katy Wood
Warfare — Ben Barker, Howard Bargroff, Glenn Freemantle, Mitch Low, Richard Spooner
Wicked: For Good — Jack Dolman, Simon Hayes, John Marquis, Andy Nelson, Nancy Nugent Title
Alternates:
Bugonia — Johnnie Burn
The Fantastic Four: First Steps — John Casali, Danielle Dupre, Josh Gold, Lora Hirschberg, Matthew Wood
Hamnet — Johnnie Burn, Rashad Hall-Heinz
A House of Dynamite — Paul N.J. Ottosson, Thomas Varga
How to Train Your Dragon — Brian Chumney, Daniel Hambrook, Randy Thom, Leff Lefferts, Paul Massey
Marty Supreme — Skip Lievsay, Paul Urmson, Joseph White Jr.
Sirāt — Laia Casanovas, Yasmina Praderas, Amanda Villavieja
Visual Effects
The visual effects race has already narrowed to ten films, with “Avatar: Fire and Ash” standing as the lone lock. The branch remains inconsistent about favoring Best Picture contenders. “Sinners” and “Frankenstein” feature less CGI than some competitors, while superhero and dinosaur franchises remain perennial shortlist staples, even though no “Jurassic Park” film has advanced beyond the shortlist since 1997.
Avatar: Fire and Ash — Richard Baneham, Daniel Barrett, Eric Saindon, Joe Letteri
F1: The Movie — Nicolas Chevalier, Robert Harrington, Keith Alfred Dawson, Ryan Tudhope
The Fantastic Four: First Steps — Robert Allman, Daniele Bigi, Theodore Bialek, Scott Stokdyk
How to Train Your Dragon — Andy Kind, Christian Manz, Glen McIntosh, Terry Palmer
Jurassic World: Rebirth — Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan, Neil Corbould, David Vickery
Mickey 17 — Dan Glass, Chris McLaughlin, Stuart Penn, Dominic Tuohy
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning — Kirstin Hall, Ian Lowe, Jeff Sutherland, Alex Wuttke
Predator: Badlands — Olivier Dumont, Alec Gillis, Karl Rapley, Sheldon Stopsack
Superman — Stéphane Ceretti, Enrico Damm, Stéphane Nazé, Guy Williams
Wicked: For Good — Paul Corbould, Jonathan Fawkner, Pablo Helman, Dale Newton
Alternates:
Frankenstein
The Running Man
Thunderbolts*
Tron: Ares
Warfare
So what do you think will be on the shortlists tomorrow? Please let us know your thoughts on our X account. Click here for more upcoming awards season dates, here for the most recent tally of awards season winners, here for our precursor tracker, and here for our current Oscar predictions.
