For Academy Awards obsessives, there is no greater headache than predicting the Shorts. Best Animated Short, Documentary Short, and Live Action Short are so tough to get a read on, with precious few precursors to help along the way. And yet, the Academy provides a shortlist of 15 films for each of these categories. To assist, I’ve watched all the shortlisted films to break them down, report on my experience with the shorts, and try to get into the voters’ minds to predict the final nominees.
Let’s be honest: in most years, the Live Action Short category sucks. Even more so than with animation or documentary, it’s tough to craft a film that feels complete in less than 40 minutes. By some minor miracle, the fifteen shorts that make up the Live Action Short shortlist this year are actually pretty great. Sure, there are a few relative duds in there, but the majority of the list are challenging, intriguing, genre-bending, and beautifully crafted. Unfortunately, that doesn’t make predicting the five nominees any easier. In fact, the joke (or truth?) is that the worst shorts often get nominated every year. With a great lineup this year, will that remain true?
Another truism about the shorts categories is that the funniest or strangest names often stand out. In recent years, we’ve had nominees like “Yuck!” “The ABCs of Book Banning,” and “An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake, and I Think I Believe It.” This year is a bit light on eye-catching titles, so I suppose we should congratulate “Two People Exchanging Saliva” on their Oscar nomination. Jokes about the title aside, Natalie Musteata and Alexandre Singh’s dystopian short is worthy of a nomination for many reasons. Set in a world in which kissing is forbidden and slaps to the face are currency, two women strike up an unlikely connection. Narrated by Vicky Krieps (“Phantom Thread”), Zar Amir Ebrahimi (“Holy Spider”), and Luàna Bajrami (“Portrait of a Lady on Fire”) star in this black-and-white short that’s dripping with longing. It’s dryly funny, and every touch or close-up is aching with yearning. The Academy will certainly fall for this one.
That’s also not the only short that benefits from star power this year. Having recognizable names in your short doesn’t always lead to a nomination, but it’s worth considering when attempting to predict the nominees. With star power can come a bigger budget and higher production value, which can help attract voters and garner support. Among the shortlisted shorts with notable actors this year is “A Friend of Dorothy,” starring Miriam Margolyes and Stephen Fry. This is the story of an unlikely friendship between an older woman and a young, theater-curious man. Predictable though it may be, it’s told with total charm, largely thanks to Margolyes and Alistair Nwachukwu. It’s got its heart on its sleeve and isn’t afraid of a little schmaltz.
Similarly unafraid of big swings of emotionality, “Ado” tackles a touchy subject: school shootings. Jenifer Lewis steals the show here as a theater instructor working on a production of “Much Ado About Nothing” when a lockdown occurs, thrusting the company into terror. As the students hide, the shooter confronts the teacher, and he remembers the good relationship they had when he was in school. Lewis delivers a knockout performance as she delays and tries to talk the shooter down, but the writing is frankly silly. The melodramatic conceit takes a reductive approach to school shooters and offers little else beyond a few tense moments. Even so, the topic of school shootings is sadly always timely, so this could resonate with voters.
While “The Singers” doesn’t have star power, it does boast the only former Oscar nominee of the bunch. Sam Davis was previously nominated for producing and shooting the Best Documentary Short nominee “Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó,“ and he also served as cinematographer on Doc Short winner “Period. End of Sentence.“ and “Dídi.“ Now he’s entering the fictional space, adapting a 19th-century short story. It’s a simple premise: a bunch of random, mostly sad, dudes drink in a bar. And yet the energy of the brief is unmatched when an impromptu singing competition breaks out. It peels back the layers on these men, revealing a charming, human, even cozy short that just draws you in. It may be simple, but there’s something special about this one.
That’s not the only lighter short of the bunch. In fact, we rarely get a straight-up spoof flick shortlisted for an Oscar, but that’s precisely what “Jane Austen’s Period Drama” is. Julia Aks stars, and co-wrote and directed with Steve Pinder, in this send-up of Austen’s romantic dramas with a bit more…honesty woven in. As a classic romantic proposal is about to unfold, our main character, Miss Estrogenia Talbot, gets her period, something entirely new for her lover, Mr. James Dickley. It’s absurdly funny, the rare spoof that nails the tone and style completely. Will the Academy go for it? I’m not sure it’s really up their alley, but it’s truly a joy.
Less of a joy, but still unendingly funny, is “Pantyhose.” This painfully relatable bottle film captures all the frustrations when getting ready for an event just takes too long. Shot entirely in one take, the short amplifies the cracks in one couple’s relationship, bending it to the breaking point. It’s impeccably written, though it takes a curious turn right toward the end. Nevertheless, the performances and craft are so strong that it’s impossible to deny.
Shorts tackling modern political issues often make the final list, and there are a number to choose from this year. Last year’s BAFTA winner, “Rock, Paper, Scissors,” is likely the buzziest of them all. Following a young Ukrainian man helping his father run a makeshift hospital in a bunker, Russian soldiers begin to close in, and he’s forced to make impossible choices as time runs out. It’s unbelievably tense, and shot with a feeling of claustrophobia. The short is bleak, but every moment rings true. Winning the BAFTA doesn’t necessarily mean you’ll even be nominated at the Oscars, but this sure feels like a winner.
Ben Stiller has lent his name as Executive Producer on another short chronicling Russia’s aggression. In the true story “Extremist,” a young artist finds small ways to push back against Putin’s regime, such as changing grocery store price tags to display anti-war messages. When she and her girlfriend are reported for their “inappropriate” relationship, she’s threatened with a decade in prison. This is shot with such clarity that it often feels like a documentary, and the film’s final moments are an absolute knockout. This one sticks the landing so well that it’ll likely stick in voters’ brains, too.
Continuing the theme of covering modern conflicts is “Butcher’s Stain,” which follows an Arab butcher in an Israeli grocery store. When he’s wrongfully accused of taking down posters of Hamas’ hostages, he’s forced to defend himself against the judgment of his co-workers, and just can’t seem to find a way out. This infuriating story of accusation and suspicion is a powerful reminder not to waste energy in pointless places. It’s well done and very much in line with what the Academy often nominates.
“Dad’s Not Home,” a Polish short, follows two young brothers grieving the loss of their mother, and they are forced to cover up their father’s dementia so that they don’t end up split up or in foster care. This is a sad story with so many moments of heartbreak, but it’s told with an honest lightness that keeps it from feeling depressing. These are still kids who still love their dad and still fight over stupid things. In some strange ways, it reminded me of 2022’s winner, “An Irish Goodbye,” perhaps because of the brotherly angle. Konrad Kakol plays the main older brother, delivering a remarkable turn and holding the film together. This is a good one.
“Amarela” features another young, captivating performer who commands the screen. Here, the title character, played by Melissa Uehara, is a Japanese Brazilian teenager who just wants to root for her country’s football team, just like everyone else. Instead of having fun watching the game, she faces racism all along the way, breaking her spirit at every turn. This story is pretty slight, but Uehara holds your attention throughout, especially with the extended final shot.
A few quieter films in the mix could catch the eyes of voters. “The Boy With White Skin” is one of the most beautifully filmed shorts on the list, even if its story leaves a little bit to be desired. A young albino boy is brought by his father to a gold mine. He’s lowered in, despite his fears, as a lucky token for the miners. This supernatural little short is a bit too minimalistic for its own good, leaving me wondering if I missed something by the end. Even so, it’s so gorgeous to look at that it creates a phenomenal atmosphere, which helps boost the weak story.
“Beyond Silence” uses signing and translation as a means of opening up about sexual harassment and assault. As a student details the assault she’s experienced, her dean realizes the parallels between their stories, an experience she’s kept quiet for decades. Their conversation is moving and full of empathy, even if we’ve seen this sort of scene many times in recent years. The writing is impeccable, leading to some truly emotional moments. It’s an effective story, well told.
“Butterfly on a Wheel,” directed by Trevor Morris, takes a less subtle approach to a story we’ve seen numerous times. Here, a music student hides away in his inexplicably stunning penthouse apartment in Toronto, unable to overcome his OCD to perform for others. He connects with a girl who helps him feel more empowered than he ever believed he could. The cinematography is stunning here, but the writing is frankly painful. The situations are laughable, and the performances don’t help to improve the wooden dialogue. There’s a joke every year that the Academy often nominates shorts that the public hates. That’s not necessarily true every year, but this could be the one this year.
And finally, one of the biggest surprises on the list is “The Pearl Comb.” Horror is not always up the Academy’s alley, but much like the shortlisted animated short “Playing God,” this could take a swing at challenging that taste. Here, a woman’s extraordinary claims of healing powers unveil an even stranger story involving her husband and a sea creature. This short is full of surprises, but it makes perfect use of the format. The story doesn’t feel stretched or cut off, and it’s told with brilliant effects that make it shine. Will the Academy embrace horror in a year with “Sinners,” “Frankenstein,” and “Weapons” showing up? It’s certainly possible.
Watching these shorts may have made it even harder to predict, since the quality is higher than in most years. The two shorts that feel the most certain for nominations are “Two People Exchanging Saliva” and “Rock, Paper, Scissors.” They’ve both gotten more attention leading up to the nominations that will work in their favor. The beautiful blend of tones in “Dad’s Not Home” and its similarity to a previous winner will work in its favor as well, leading me to mark it down for a nomination. At least one other “timely” short is likely to make the list alongside “Rock, Paper, Scissors.” I’m tempted to put “Extremist,” since it ends on such a high note, but “Butcher’s Stain” offers a look at a different part of the world. I’ll put that one in. Finally, while I’m close to adding “Butterfly on a Wheel” or “Ado” because I liked them the least (never underestimate that factor), or maybe bet on star power with “A Friend of Dorothy,” I’m going with “The Singers,” with Sam Davis as the only previous Oscar nominee. That, and it’s getting a sizable push behind it. Check out my final predictions below, along with a list of my personal favorites from the list.
Predicted Nominees:
- Two People Exchanging Saliva
- Rock, Paper, Scissors
- Butcher’s Stain
- Dad’s Not Home
- The Singers
Close: Extremist, Butterfly on a Wheel, Ado
Favorites:
- Two People Exchanging Saliva
- Extremist
- The Singers
- Jane Austen’s Period Drama
- The Pearl Comb
How many of the shortlisted films have you seen? What are you predicting to get nominated for Best Live-Action Short? Please let us know your thoughts on our X account. Click here for more upcoming awards season dates, here for the most recent tally of awards season winners, here for our precursor tracker, and here for our current Oscar predictions.
