On January 22nd, every question we’ve had about the Oscar nominations for the last four to six months will finally be answered. After the long gauntlet of film festival season, critics’ awards season, and guild nomination season, these are the most burning questions left going into Oscar nomination morning – whether the ultimate answers are ones that will be satisfying or not.
Will “Sinners” Set Records Or Be Taken Down Several Pegs?
“Sinners” has gone from an underestimated spring blockbuster to something being talked about as a potential record-setter on Oscar nomination morning, with a record-tying 14 or even record-breaking 15 nominations being projected by some pundits.
However, for a Black-led/made blockbuster and vampire movie, in a time where no Black-led/made movie has even been in the Academy’s top two since “Moonlight,” nothing can ever be assumed to come that easily. This is especially true in 2026 Hollywood, and especially after the Golden Globes, international voters wouldn’t give it anything more than the “consolation” Best Cinematic Achievement award and a Best Score win that wasn’t even broadcast live.
As such, although most people are predicting a Ryan Coogler Best Director nomination, a Best Actor nomination for Michael B. Jordan, a Best Supporting Actress nomination for Wunmi Mosaku, and maybe an outside Best Supporting Actor nomination surprise for Delroy Lindo or Miles Caton, Academy voters can still just as easily snub every one of them. As unlikely as that may seem, this Academy in this Hollywood cannot be given a single benefit of the doubt until these names are read – and if most or all of them aren’t, then that would say everything about what the Academy thinks of the supposed “One Battle After Another” vs “Sinners” Best Picture narrative.
Is The Top Five Too Strong For Best Director Chaos?
There hasn’t been a year where the DGA nominations have perfectly matched the Oscars’ Best Director nominees since 2017. Given the Academy director’s branch history of shocking nominees since then, from Pawel Pawlikowski to Thomas Vinterberg, Ryusuke Hamaguchi, and Justine Triet, it is hard to picture them being conventional. But if there was ever a year where they might, it could be this one.
With “One Battle After Another,” “Sinners,” “Hamnet,” “Marty Supreme,“ and “Frankenstein“ the clear top five overall this year, and with the DGA nominating all their directors as a result, the easy thinking is that the Oscars will have no choice but to do the same. Even though their recent history suggests they will pick at least one international favorite outside the top five, like Joachim Trier, Jafar Panahi, or Kleber Mendonca Filho, have the recent struggles of international films with guild and industry voters closed the door on such a surprise this time?
Every year, Best Director is a jaw-dropping category with a shocking snub, a shocking inclusion, or both. Yet is this the year where the most shocking thing about the Best Director field is how predictable it is for once?
Will Another Timothée Chalamet Oscar Nominee Overperform?
Last year, “A Complete Unknown“ exceeded all projections not just for Chalamet and the film’s nominations, but for having enough coattails to get James Mangold, Monica Barbaro, and the script in too. If history repeats itself for “Marty Supreme“ – a film that is a bigger box office hit, has much better reviews, and has Chalamet as the Best Actor frontrunner this time – then some other bonus nominations are in store here too.
This would not only mean Josh Safdie staying in Best Director, but Odessa A’zion or maybe even Gwyneth Paltrow taking the final Best Supporting Actress slot, and some extra technical nominations in fields like Best Score and Best Editing. “A Complete Unknown“ was deemed an overperformer with eight total nominations – all of which eventually lost – so can something with even more momentum, like “Marty Supreme,“ go higher and even reach double digits?
Is” It Was Just an Accident“ Headed For A Less Than Accidental Downfall?
For weeks, “It Was Just an Accident“ was deemed the seventh or eighth locked nominee for Best Picture, until the likes of the Golden Globes, BAFTA, and the guilds seemed to forget it even existed. Now there is widespread speculation that the Academy will forget it, too, to the point where other once-locked nominations in Best Original Screenplay and Best International Film – let alone Panahi’s potential Best Director nomination – are considered endangered as well.
Should the Academy cause such a collapse, there will be many questions about how and why such a film was dismissed by Hollywood voters – especially if they nominate something with far inferior reviews and fewer precursor nominations like “F1“ instead. In that context, the true reach and scope of international voters will have to be questioned, as they seem to have no trouble letting in films and contenders from Europe, Asia, and Brazil – yet other, much less represented countries and areas like Iran and the Middle East may be another matter.
Should “It Was Just an Accident“ survive and salvage major nominations anyway, it may only be the growing divide between the whole Academy voting branch and the major American- and European-centric precursors that needs further examination. If it is shut out, however, deeper questions across the board may need to be answered, or at least not swept under the rug.
How Powerful Can One Julia Roberts Endorsement Be?
Ever since Julia Roberts praised Eva Victor and “Sorry, Baby“ on stage at the Golden Globes and right before Oscar voting, the floodgates have allegedly opened for this A24 indie darling. Although “Sorry, Baby“ is just outside the top 10 most nominated films for Best Picture among critic/regional precursors, and is in the top 5 for most Best Original Screenplay precursor nominations, none of that made it an awards season headliner until Roberts’ surprise plug.
Now not only are some expecting that endorsement to put “Sorry, Baby“ over the top for a Best Original Screenplay nomination – which could also end hopes for Best Picture bubble contenders like “Weapons,” “It Was Just an Accident,” and “Blue Moon“ – some theorists even wonder if it could make “Sorry, Baby“ this year’s “I’m Still Here“ and shock the world with a Best Picture nomination too. Nonetheless, whenever people actually expect an “I’m Still Here“ level stunning twist, that’s usually when it doesn’t happen.
Given how A24 did nothing for any of their films this year except “Marty Supreme,“ how the only attention the industry precursors gave it before Roberts’ speech was Victor’s Golden Globe nomination for Best Drama Actress – and how Roberts herself went from preseason Best Actress favorite to afterthought thanks to “After the Hunt’s“ collapse – is one off the cuff line from her impactful enough to change one or two major races this much?
Just How Hot Has “Bugonia“ Become?
If there is a film that could overperform on nomination morning like “A Complete Unknown“ did last year, maybe it isn’t the one with Chalamet. Like “A Complete Unknown,” “Bugonia“ had lower reviews than most other contenders, had its multi-nominated lead as its best hope for a major nomination for some time, but has since risen up the ranks enough that much more could be possible.
Beyond a now seemingly locked Best Picture nomination, Emma Stone’s latest nomination, and a presumably safe Best Adapted Screenplay nomination, what more could “Bugonia“ have the coattails to bring in? Jesse Plemons joining Stone as a lead acting nominee is one possible thing, but additional technical nominations may be another. And if Best Director is indeed chaotic again, what if enough voters feel more comfortable letting Yorgos Lanthimos back in than less familiar names like Safdie, Trier, Panahi, or Filho?
“Bugonia“ was considered a preseason across-the-board nominee, then fell off after its Venice premiere. Yet is it now on track to come full circle and fulfill those preseason expectations after all?
Will “Train Dreams“ Do What “Sing Sing” Couldn’t?
Last year, director Greg Kwedar and co-writer Clint Bentley’s “Sing Sing“ received Best Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay, and Best Song nominations, but couldn’t stay in Best Picture despite being projected in for most of the season. A year later, Bentley is the director, and Kwedar is the writer of “Train Dreams,“ which is supposedly on the verge of going a step further.
Once more, a Bentley/Kwedar film seems locked for a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination, and might even get another Best Song nomination, although Joel Edgerton might have a harder time matching Colman Domingo as a Best Actor nominee. This time around, “Train Dreams“ is also looking for one extra nomination in Best Cinematography, if not one in Best Original Score as well – and this time around, unlike “Sing Sing,” “Train Dreams“ comes in as a PGA nominee. With that and Netflix on its side, is the second time the charm for this writer/director duo?
Will Two Significant Streaks Continue?
For the last three years, a film has gotten Best Picture and screenplay nominations only – and for every year in the expanded era except 2021, at least one film has been a lone Screenplay nominee only. But in 2025, both trends could be in danger.
“Sorry, Baby“ has gained traction as a possible lone Screenplay nominee, assuming that is all it can get. Yet if something like “Weapons,” “Blue Moon,” or “The Secret Agent“ takes the last Best Original Screenplay spot after all, then there really may be no room for any film to be a Screenplay nominee only. Perhaps “Train Dreams“ or “It Was Just an Accident“ could do it if either of them fall out of Best Picture and their other categories, or maybe “Train Dreams“ could instead be the next “Women Talking,” “Past Lives“ and “Nickel Boys“ as just a Best Picture and Screenplay nominee, since nothing else seems to have that path as a possibility.
But although it might be harder than usual to see a film get nothing but Screenplay, or get nothing but Best Picture and Screenplay, the Academy always seems to find a way lately. Will it have to make some surprising cuts and snubs, in more than just the Screenplay categories, to make one or both of those traditions keep going for yet another year?
What do you think is going to be nominated for this year’s Academy Awards? Please let us know in the comments section below and on Next Best Picture’s X account, click here here for the most recent tally of awards season winners, here for Next Best Picture’s precursor tracker, and here for their current Oscar predictions.
You can follow Robert and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars & Film on X @Robertdoc1984
