Last year, both Screenplay Oscar categories were the most lopsided in recent history, at least when it came to the colossal sweeps of “Sinners” and “One Battle After Another.” However, they were at least even, with each category’s two top films dominating Best Picture. But in the early stages of the 2026 season, it looks like only one category has films in the running to win Best Picture, while the other has films either below the top frontrunners or on the bubble in both Screenplay and Picture.
“Wild Horse Nine” is now starting its general release, after two months of being deemed the favorite to win Best Original Screenplay. Yet it’s easy to say it is only the favorite because no other top-tier Best Picture films are in the Original Screenplay category this year, as most seem to be in Best Adapted Screenplay instead.
For months, the top two films for Best Picture have been assumed to be “The Odyssey” and “La Bola Negra,” both of which are competing for Best Adapted Screenplay. For that matter, the biggest film left with a chance to overtake these two is “Dune: Part Three,” which will also be fighting to get into the Adapted field. If it does get the Screenplay nomination that “Dune” got and “Dune: Part Two” didn’t, it may well be a sign that “Dune: Part Three” could make both Best Picture and Best Adapted Screenplay a three-film race – leaving Best Original Screenplay an afterthought in the bigger picture.
Right now, the top two projected films in Best Original Screenplay are “Wild Horse Nine” and “The Debut,” which each had a very brief window to jump into Best Picture win consideration during their fall festival premieres. But when neither won or placed at TIFF, and when neither one of them became likely to sweep a lead acting Oscar, Best Supporting Actor and Best Original Screenplay all at once, it relegated them to a status well behind “The Odyssey” and “La Bola Negra.”
As such, unless “Wild Horse Nine” starts having a bigger surge at the box office and at early awards than expected, its best hope at the Oscars is to win both Best Actor and Best Original Screenplay – representing a long overdue Oscar for John Malkovich and a long overdue above-the-line Oscar win for Martin McDonagh. But even if Malkovich becomes vulnerable to Andrew Scott, Matt Damon, or another contender in Best Actor, Best Original Screenplay might still be easier for “Wild Horse Nine” to hold onto, mainly because the competition is far less overwhelming.
While the Best Adapted Screenplay field is crowded with frontrunners like “The Odyssey,” “La Bola Negra,” and potentially “Dune: Part Three,” along with certain or near-certain Best Picture nominees like “Project Hail Mary,” “The Invite,” and “All of a Sudden,” Best Original Screenplay is a hodgepodge of bubble films beyond “Wild Horse Nine.” The only other film in this field that looks nearly certain to be a Best Picture nominee is “The Debut.” Even that could be placed in danger if “You Can See Everything” truly becomes A24’s No. 1 or No. 2 contender and if “The Invite” is too strong to easily fall to No. 3. The assumption is that a likely win for Julianne Moore and a potential win for Paul Giamatti would keep “The Debut” safe. Still, any more twists or slip-ups could make it that much more vulnerable.
Beyond both “Wild Horse Nine” and “The Debut,” the Best Original Screenplay field is full of films that could get nominated there and in Best Picture, or get shut out of both completely. Between “Obsession,” “Artificial,” “Club Kid,” “Fjord,” “Tender Loving Care,” and maybe “I Play Rocky” if it doesn’t wind up in the Adapted category, this is a field full of movies too uncertain and too vulnerable to think of challenging for a Best Original Screenplay win right now – and too busy to give “Wild Horse Nine” any real competition for the moment.
Depending on what the final three Best Original Screenplay nominees are, and how many also get into Best Picture, that could change down the line. Maybe something like “Tender Loving Care” rides the wave of Mike Leigh’s potential farewell Oscar nomination to challenge for a farewell Oscar win as well, which would certainly beat out McDonagh’s overdue narrative. Maybe if “I Play Rocky” gets into this category and actually evokes dreams/nightmares of “Green Book,” visions of the kind of Screenplay win Peter Farrelly’s last contender pulled off could start coming together. And in any case, given how McDonagh’s last film, “The Banshees of Inisherin,” went from frontrunner to getting completely shut out on Oscar night, who’s to say that couldn’t happen again for what may be a weaker across-the-board film like “Wild Horse Nine?”
Right now, the relative weakness of the Best Original Screenplay field is the best thing in “Wild Horse Nine’s” favor, since McDonagh isn’t facing anything as strong as “Get Out” or “Everything Everywhere All at Once” like in his last two Screenplay losses. Even if “The Debut” stays strong enough to be a safe Best Picture nominee, fewer and fewer people expect it to do more than just win for Moore nowadays. And if Moore and Giamatti both win, that might rule a Screenplay win out completely, unless it is suddenly threatening to win Best Picture.
Barring that increasingly unlikely possibility, “Wild Horse Nine” is staring at an entire field of Best Original Screenplay competitors that aren’t even top-five Best Picture films, or that may not be Best Picture nominees at all. This could actually wind up the first Best Original Screenplay field with only two Best Picture nominees since “Spotlight” won in 2015, or at least a rare year with only three Best Picture nominees like in 2012, 2014, 2016 and 2024. On the other hand, the odds are far stronger that all five Best Adapted Screenplay nominees will also be in Best Picture, or that there will be no more than one Best Picture snub in that field.
Still, these two categories might yet be united in the exact same way they were last year – in that both have extremely lopsided outcomes for the winner. The Next Best Picture team still not only has “Wild Horse Nine” nearly sweeping Best Original Screenplay, but also has “La Bola Negra” all but sweeping Best Adapted Screenplay. Maybe they won’t have the kind of complete sweep “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners” had, yet nothing suggests any truly nail-biting Screenplay contests for the second year in a row.
Considering all the potential top-tier Best Picture films in the Adapted field, maybe some kind of shift in the Best Picture standings could change that race as well. Or maybe a less high-ranked film like “The Invite” or “All of a Sudden” can pull off an upset if “The Odyssey,” “La Bola Negra” and “Dune: Part Three” really don’t need a Screenplay win for their Best Picture win packages after all, just like when “American Fiction” beat top-two films “Oppenheimer” and “Poor Things” in that category three years ago. Either way, a shift like that seems easier to imagine there than it does for a Best Original Screenplay race with only one truly locked film right now.
Is “Wild Horse Nine” ready to just coast to an easy, if not “Sinners” level, dominance through its lack of Best Original Screenplay competition? Or, given that it still doesn’t look like a settled top three Best Picture film, despite its current frontrunner status in two major categories, could it start losing its grip on the lead with just one well-timed surge from “The Debut,” or perhaps if a bubble film like “Artificial,” “I Play Rocky,” or something else starts looking far stronger? Or could it be reduced to just being strong enough for a Malkovich win only, much like many think “The Debut” is now merely strong enough for a Moore win only?
At this point, Best Original Screenplay is the more chaotic screenplay category by far, yet it may also be the weakest and least threatening. Right now, that puts “Wild Horse Nine” as the overwhelming favorite by default if nothing else – but will it still look that way when awards start getting handed out in December and January?
Do you think “Wild Horse Nine” will finally win Martin McDonagh a writing Oscar? Do you think the film could win any other Oscars? Please let us know in the comments section below and on Next Best Picture’s X account, and check out Next Best Picture’s latest Oscar predictions here.
