If we went into this year’s Venice Film Festival seeking clarity for an awards race that still feels up in the air, we didn’t get much. If anything, an already-unsettled season has become even harder to predict: two titles that frequently showed up in mid-season Best Picture lineups were met with divisive reactions, and two of the biggest winners still may not have a straightforward path to the Oscars. But it’s important to keep in mind that these festivals are not, and never have been, all about the Oscars: they’re about celebrating a wide range of cinema from around the world, and any movie lover should have plenty of new additions to their watchlist. Let’s unpack Venice together and see what we could find…
Is There Room For “The Room Next Door?”
Last year’s winner of the Golden Lion, “Poor Things,” was pegged as an Oscar contender from the minute its credits rolled. This year, Isabelle Huppert’s jury threw us a curveball: “The Room Next Door,” the feature-length English language feature debut from Oscar-darling Pedro Almodovar, won the top prize despite a somewhat mixed reception from critics on the Lido. Of course, the jury’s votes are the only ones that matter, but there’s usually some degree of overlap between critical reception and what brings home hardware at the end of the festival.
“The Room Next Door,” a euthanasia drama starring Julianne Moore and Tilda Swinton, was seen as a Best Picture possibility heading into the festival. Still, criticism for its screenplay appeared to put the kibosh on that. But the fact that it won the Golden Lion may change the calculus somewhat: it’s worth noting that European critics were much more enthusiastic about the film than their American counterparts, which also happened to be true for another divisive festival winner turned Best Picture nominee, “Triangle of Sadness.” At the very least, Swinton will be in the mix for a nomination, whether for lead or supporting. Will Pedro be nominated for Director or Screenplay again? Sony Pictures Classics will fight tooth and nail to get it in the race.
It’s “Brutal“ Out Here
Going into the final day of the festival, Brady Corbet’s epic about immigration and architecture, “The Brutalist,” was the odds-on favorite for the Golden Lion. Its reception was uniformly ecstatic, with some critics comparing it to “The Godfather“ and “There Will Be Blood“—which is eyebrow-raising, even for festival hyperbole. Oscar prognosticators, meanwhile, were already debating whether Adrien Brody was the new Best Actor frontrunner or whether Felicity Jones could get a coattail nomination (while everyone rushed to put Guy Pearce at no. 1 for Best Supporting Actor).
The fact that it “only“ won the Silver Lion for Best Director doesn’t necessarily stop “The Brutalist’s” momentum: after all, Jane Campion got pretty far with a Silver Lion for “The Power of the Dog“ in 2021. But although the Academy has gotten more adventurous in recent years, an austere, three-and-a-half-hour art film may prove to be too rich for its blood (If even Martin Scorsese can’t avoid runtime discourse…). Still, it’s going to have some serious passion behind it, and in a year like this, that may be enough to make it the nomination leader and a huge contender to win the big prize from the Academy.
“Joker“ and “Queer“ Falter
“Joker: Folie à Deux“ faced an uphill battle to repeat the Golden Lion win of its predecessor, but a strong reception would have solidified its status as an Oscar contender. Alas, it appears to be even more divisive than the first “Joker“: although “Joker: Folie à Deux“ received some unqualified raves, the general consensus appears to be that the much-ballyhooed musical elements weren’t well-integrated, with much of the runtime being taken up by a courtroom drama that essentially relitigates the discourse we had in 2019. Also, Lady Gaga is apparently underused which means the Supporting Actress rumors turned out to be true.
“Queer,“ Luca Guadagnino’s second film of the year, also saw its Oscar stock drop. While many critics lauded its surreal, fragmented look at a gay expat’s life in 1960s Mexico City, as well as a boldly committed performance from Daniel Craig, it will likely prove to be too heady a trip for Academy voters (some even compared it to A24’s “Beau Is Afraid”). Again, the Oscars may be more adventurous these days (Craig could still crack the Best Actor lineup), but are they Lesley-Manville-as-an-ayahuasca-shaman levels of adventurous? Probably not.
Best International Film Takes Shape
After Cannes introduced some strong favorites for this category, including “Emilia Perez“ and “The Seed of the Sacred Fig,“ it remained to be seen what the rest of the category might look like (“All We Imagine As Light,“ the Grand Prix winner, is, unfortunately, unlikely to be submitted by either India or France). On this, Venice offers some clarity: “I’m Still Here,“ the Best Screenplay winner about a family whose father disappears due to opposing Brazil’s military dictatorship, will likely be Brazil’s submission, and it stands a good chance of an “Argentina, 1985“-style nomination (Hopes for Fernanda Torres to avenge her mother in the Best Actress category are also still on the table). “Vermiglio,“ the Grand Jury Prize winner, and “April,“ the Special Jury Prize winner, would be solid submissions for Italy and Georgia, respectively.
Do you think any Oscar contenders emerged from this year’s Venice Film Festival? Please let us know your thoughts in the comments section below or on our X account and check out the Next Best Picture team’s latest Oscar predictions here.
