As the early days of the precursors for the 2025 awards season approach, many categories remain unclear, while others are viewed with considerable confidence, even at this early stage. One such category is Best Actor, where Timothée Chalamet’s towering performance in “Marty Supreme” is currently being widely predicted to win the Oscar. Not only is this due to the fandom and respect Chalamet has built up over the last decade, where even at his young age, he is seen as rather tenured, but his competition seems relatively nonexistent at the moment. At this point, every possible contender has been seen, and nobody on paper appears to be as showy and buzzy as Chalamet in his latest Christmas release. Many would consider Leonardo DiCaprio in “One Battle After Another” a runner-up; however, it’s difficult to imagine such a performance, one considered by many to be overshadowed by the supporting cast, winning at this stage. In fact, the runner-up and potential underdog in this race is perhaps someone not even in a film being considered for a Best Picture nomination, but has a tremendous amount of respect and admiration from his peers, and that’s Ethan Hawke in “Blue Moon.”
Richard Linklater’s “Blue Moon” has had a somewhat buzzy presence this fall. While it may not be making the biggest splash at the box office, it has charmed all audiences who have seen it since its world premiere at Berlinale, making stops at the Telluride, Toronto and New York Film Festivals. Perhaps, under most circumstances, the film’s low visibility would be enough to prevent it from receiving any Oscar nominations; however, the trick up its sleeve is its campaigner, Sony Pictures Classics. The stealth campaigner to end all stealth campaigners, Sony Pictures Classics has not only pulled off last year’s shocking “I’m Still Here” Best Picture nomination, but also garnered other acting nominations, such as Bill Nighy’s “Living” and Penelope Cruz’s “Parallel Mothers” for similarly under-the-radar films. They also managed to score “The Father” more nominations than what was originally predicted, and two eventual wins for Best Actor and Adapted Screenplay. Particularly for a movie of “Blue Moon’s” quality, featuring the filmmaking duo of director Richard Linklater and star Ethan Hawke, getting this film and performance in front of voters’ eyes should be incredibly easy for them.
Luckily for Sony Pictures Classics, “Blue Moon” and Hawke’s performance happen to be excellent; most viewers who watch it will be incredibly charmed and wowed by what Hawke does with his role as the flamboyant, depressingly sad but creatively invigorating Lorenz Hart. In the way, it’s a nearly feature-length monologue from the actor, who completely captivates the audience with his sympathetic, bordering on pathetic portrayal. The chamber piece film takes us on a rollercoaster of his emotions, desires, and regrets, and by the end, we have a fully realized character with whom we aren’t exactly ready to leave yet, though he has sadly left us. The material is there, particularly for Hawke as a performer, and anybody who sees the film seems to agree he’s incredibly Oscar-worthy in it. The quality doesn’t even account for how beloved an actor Hawke is in the industry, a fact many understandably forget due to his infamous Best Actor miss for “First Reformed,” which won him more accolades than any other actor in 2018. Obviously, in a more accessible and likable film, with a weaker best actor field and a stronger campaigner, the issues that cost him recognition that time shouldn’t repeat here. In fact, the appreciation for Hawke has perhaps only grown in the years since. Even beyond his four Oscar nominations (two for acting and two for co-writing two films in the “Before” trilogy), he has an infectious way of speaking about art and film that really resonates with his collaborators and audiences alike. His portrayal of a fellow passionate artist here may add another layer of endearment to voters.
Now that the cards have been laid out for what type of contender we’re working with here, the next question becomes what the path for Hawke would be. In terms of nominations, it’s not very hard at all to see him land all four of the major televised awards. The Golden Globes have twelve slots, with a space for Hawke in the Comedy-Musical category, and the Critics’ Choice similarly have enough slots for a performance of this size. Particularly since it’s very easy to see Hawke not only receive numerous nominations at critics groups but perhaps also win several. There’s even a world where he wins one or multiple of the trifecta prizes (NYFCC, LAFCA, or NSFC), a feather in his cap that would boost him even higher into the best actor race. SAG and BAFTA are easy to see for nominations as well, and it’s hard to imagine Hawke’s campaigning efforts (while he’s also promoting FX’s “The Lowdown”) going unnoticed.
While the Best Actor nomination may seem very secure considering all this, the idea of Hawke winning does bubble up. While it looks like an uphill battle, both with the visibility of his film and the goodwill around the frontrunner Chalamet, there are certainly prizes Hawke could pick up across the season. While a majority would be critics’ prizes, there is potentially a world where Hawke, with a performance this baity, could pull off a surprise win at SAG. The leading theory here is that “Marty Supreme” would be this year’s example of a late-release underperforming at SAG, something we tend to see; however, A24 will most likely do its best to avoid that issue. One could also argue that since Chalamet won that specific award last year, members of the body may go out of their way to look elsewhere; however, we’ve seen time and time again that most voters don’t think in that manner. While neither theory is the strongest, a perfect storm of the two could create a surge for Hawke, potentially giving him a surprise (and deserving) win there.
The main issue with the idea of Hawke winning is that “Blue Moon” isn’t contending as strongly in other Oscar categories. There are cases to be made for nominations for the excellent screenplay or the wonderful performance from Andrew Scott, but right now, those seem far hazier. If the season progresses and “Blue Moon” starts to show itself elsewhere (even in Best Makeup & Hairstyling), it seems rather impossible for it to reach the top-five status “Marty Supreme” appears to be targeting. Hawke would need to sweep the season to overcome being in the weaker film, and that is also hard to see at the moment.
Perhaps Chalamet is still too young in the eyes of most voters, and a narrative persists that it’s the right time to award Hawke. However, as we saw in last year’s Best Actress race, the stronger and buzzier film always prevails. Both Chalamet and Hawke are delivering career-best work this year, and it certainly will be a treat to see how far “Blue Moon” goes as an underdog this season. Whether this all translates to an Oscar in Hawke’s hand is a different question, one that currently seems unlikely but would be wholly satisfying for a performer and individual whom we have enjoyed watching for many years. Still, no matter the case, this season will shower Ethan Hawke with a lot of love, and it’ll be exciting to see to what degree.
Have you seen “Blue Moon” yet? If so, what do you think of it? Do you believe Ethan Hawke can rise up in the predictions for Best Actor and eventually go on to win the Oscar? Do you feel the film has any other Oscar chances? Please let us know in the comments section below and on Next Best Picture’s X account and check out the team’s latest Oscar predictions here.
You can follow Ben and hear more of their thoughts on the Oscars & Film on X @benatthecinema
