One of the biggest releases this year, both theatrically and for awards season, is “Wicked: For Good“, Jon M. Chu’s adaptation of the second half of the stage show “Wicked.” It has been shown to its first set of eyes, and the results are interesting to say the least. Following up on last year’s first half of the story “Wicked,” which scored ten Academy Award nominations and two wins, was always going to be a tough act for “Wicked: For Good” to follow in the awards space. Sequels getting recognized are rare across Academy history, and even though the number of Best Picture-nominated sequels has rapidly increased in recent years (mainly due to Hollywood insisting that everything needs a sequel nowadays), films like last year’s “Dune: Part Two” still took a big hit, receiving half the nominations of the first despite significantly more acclaim. It makes tracking a film like “Wicked: For Good” throughout the year very challenging, as the second half of the stage show is notoriously less revered than the first, but perhaps the love from the first part would wash over here, securing the sequel a spot in this year’s Best Picture lineup if it stuck the landing.
With the way the scores have settled with “Wicked: For Good’s” first batch of reviews, the reception just doesn’t seem to be where it needs to be for a big blockbuster sequel like this to repeat in Best Picture. Sequels like “Dune: Part Two,” “Mad Max: Fury Road,” and “Top Gun: Maverick” were all significantly more acclaimed than their first films, and among the most beloved in their respective years. Then, for something like “Avatar: The Way of Water,” which had a similar drop in scores from the first film, made over $2 billion worldwide, and was paying off a 13-year wait for the next film, receiving audience love that made up for a weaker critical perception Now, it is not impossible that the second and final chapter in the “Wicked” story garners a similar level of goodwill and audience adoration that gets it into one of the bottom slots, but it would take a substantial and surprising effort for it to make such a rebound. The last few slots in Best Picture are somewhat up in the air right now (as they are every year), but there are some contenders with far more prestige and acclaim that an underwhelming blockbuster sequel might see itself fading out over time. The best comparison is perhaps “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” another sequel that received less acclaim than its first but was well-liked enough to rank in the top 15 for Best Picture and still garnered five Oscar nominations and a repeat win for its costumes. So what could “Wicked: For Good” hang onto, even factoring in a slip from the Best Picture race?
Well, like the first film, it seems the big story with “Wicked: For Good,” both awards and otherwise, is the performances. Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo are both certainly in contention for repeat Oscar nominations, but it’s hard to fully pinpoint their likelihood at the moment. In a way, they are the movie; their friendship and their vocals are what get audiences into the theater and what people will talk about when they leave. I suppose the question then becomes if people aren’t leaving as enthused as they were last time, does that backfire and cost them their expected repeat Oscar nominations? It is still too early to call, especially for Erivo, who is dealing with much fiercer competition than their co-star. In a way, it’s hard at the moment not to predict Ariana Grande to repeat in Best Supporting Actress, as that category has a lot of contenders that make sense. Still, there is plenty of room for a show-stopping, emotional performance like Grande’s to become a staple, whether the film is in Best Picture or not. The idea of a win for Grande feels pretty far out of reach after these reviews, however, especially if Teyana Taylor proves to be the real deal for the presumed Best Picture winner, “One Battle After Another.” As for Erivo, Best Actress is a lot busier, with a top eight that all feel rather viable. Especially for performances without a Best Picture nomination or that are on the bubble to get in. Contenders such as Rose Byrne for “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” and Amanda Seyfried for “The Testament of Ann Lee” seem to be inspiring far more passion. The two “Wicked” stars both have visibility on their side, not only with one of the most seen films of the year, but also a very public and beloved marketing and awards campaign over the last two years that keeps them on most people’s minds. Right now, the most feasible path seems to be that Grande is in, but Erivo is out. Even if every voter who votes for Grande also votes for Erivo, the competition is just so much fiercer in Best Actress that it may not be enough for them to come along together a second year in a row.
As for the crafts, the reviews are still strong enough to support expected nominations like Best Costume Design, Production Design, Makeup & Hairstyling, and Visual Effects. While the weaker Best Picture odds may hinder one or two of those, the work is different enough from the first and flashy enough that they can still receive nominations for a widely seen and generally liked film. When it comes to winning, it’s harder to see it beating the likes of “Frankenstein” and “Avatar: Fire and Ash,” which have far more noteworthy work. Best Makeup & Hairstyling has no clear frontrunner, but it’s not so exceptional here that it would get votes over a stronger film with equally compelling material, such as “Sinners” or “Frankenstein.” Best Sound can also happen, but for some reason, it feels easier for it to fall out of that category, as there are plenty of other sound-heavy films in the Best Picture race. Best Film Editing and Original Score were seen as lucky nominations for the first film, so expecting those to repeat would be a real stretch. Even if the film was in Best Picture, those categories have plenty of fresh contenders this year.
Lastly, the two original songs are “No Place Home,” sung by Erivo, and “The Girl in the Bubble,” sung by Grande. Original songs for preexisting musicals don’t tend to get Oscar-nominated, but these are far more prominent in the narrative and were heavily promoted leading up to the film’s theatrical release. While there’s a world in which both could happen, “No Place Like Home” is not only relatively trivial in the larger context of the film but has also been rather poorly received by most who feel Erivo, an immensely talented, powerhouse vocalist, could’ve and should’ve been given more to work with. “The Girl in the Bubble” has received more praise than the other two and serves as the climax for Glinda’s character arc towards the end of the film. It’s also beautifully sung by Grande and really helps sell her performance as a strong contender for Best Supporting Actress. Right now, the latter song seems more viable for an Oscar nomination and will probably get in as one of the buzzier songs of the year. However, with the Best Original Song category as hard to fill as it is, perhaps the visibility and star power can get both “Wicked: For Good” songs in.
It may seem lazy and has been brought up quite a bit already, but “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” may be the best blueprint to follow for “Wicked: For Good’s” Oscar chances. A lesser received but very popular and emotional sequel that scored a few craft nominations and a Best Supporting Actress nomination. Perhaps there’s even a world where it replicates the same package of Best Supporting Actress, Best Costume Design, Best Makeup & Hairstyling, Best Costume Design, Best Visual Effects, and Best Original Song (wouldn’t that be something peculiar?). Even if a category or two gets swapped from that, four to five nominations feels right for where things currently stand at the moment, given the reviews. While many, particularly the films’ most ardent fans, may be disappointed that the second half does not match or build on the first’s big awards success, the “Wicked” films have undoubtedly left a mark on the last two award seasons. Indeed, “Wicked: For Good’s” name will be read out several times on Oscar nomination morning. With all of these nominations still in play, it may even find itself still squeaking into Best Picture if it gets necessary precursor nominations from the Critics’ Choice, Golden Globes, and PGA. Whatever happens to it by the end of the season, at least we can all say “Thank Goodness” we finally got the beloved Broadway musical up on the big screen and properly honored cinematically.
Currently, the Next Best Picture team (as a consensus) has “Wicked: For Good” receiving the following Oscar nominations:
Best Picture
Best Actress
Best Supporting Actress
Best Casting
Best Costume Design
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Best Production Design
Best Original Song
Best Sound
Best Visual Effects
Have you seen “Wicked: For Good” yet? If so, what do you think of it? Do you think it will get into Best Picture as the first film did? How many Oscar nominations are you predicting it will receive overall? Do you have it predicted to win anything? Please let us know in the comments section below and on Next Best Picture’s X account and check out the team’s latest Oscar predictions here.
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