With “Anora” now on digital and with the first leg of critic awards season over, leading Best Actress precursor winner Mikey Madison would seem to be in solid shape as the Oscar frontrunner. Nevertheless, in this early stage and with the rest of the Best Actress field very uncertain, there’s still a lot of doubt that a young Oscar season newcomer like Madison can really win in her first time out. However, if this was just 10 years ago, someone like Madison winning Best Actress would be old hat by now.
From 2010 to 2016, it was a tradition for young actresses in their 20s to break out by winning the Oscar, as it was for Natalie Portman in “Black Swan,” Jennifer Lawrence in “Silver Linings Playbook,” Brie Larson in “Room” and Emma Stone with her first Oscar for “La La Land.” Yet ever since then, older actresses like Frances McDormand, Olivia Colman, Renee Zellweger, Jessica Chastain, Michelle Yeoh, and an older Stone for “Poor Things” have restored order for more experienced Best Actress winners – a trend that Madison now hopes to reverse against competition like Angelina Jolie, Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Demi Moore, Cynthia Erivo, Karla Sofia Gascon and more.
Should Madison win on March 2nd, just a few weeks shy of her 26th birthday, she will be the ninth youngest Best Actress winner of all time – beating out Portman, Larson, and Stone but still well short of Lawrence. But if she hopes to match those Oscar ingénues, it is worth looking back on how they did it and how Madison can do the same.
Natalie Portman – “Black Swan”
Unlike Madison right now, Portman was not an Oscar season rookie when she won, having been nominated in Best Supporting Actress for “Closer” six years earlier – ironically playing an exotic dancer just like Madison’s “Anora.“ When Portman came back as a lead, it was for a more extreme, experimental genre-hopping movie helmed by an auteur director making his own Oscar breakthrough after years of cult hits, much like “Anora“ is doing now for Sean Baker.
Still, “Black Swan“ was never a favorite to win Best Picture, as “Anora“ is now, though Portman made sure it was a safe nominee. Director Darren Aronofsky was its only other above-the-line nominee, whereas “Anora“ may also have Best Supporting Actor and Best Original Screenplay nominations on its resume to boost Madison’s case. Yet Portman didn’t need much help from her film, as she easily swept the major industry and televised awards without breaking a sweat against Lawrence, Annette Bening, Nicole Kidman, and Michelle Williams.
Madison isn’t that kind of heavy favorite, although her presumed win-competitive competition like Jolie and Gascon hasn’t broken through with critic groups yet. With bubble contender Jean-Baptiste being just about the only other person winning so far, perhaps the rest of the competition may just cancel each other out while Madison cruises, using her newfound star power and “Anora’s“ frontrunner status. Nonetheless, if just being a new star on the block isn’t enough, maybe not having the kind of A-list resume Portman had before her Oscar sweep will cause problems with veteran voters later.
Jennifer Lawrence – “Silver Linings Playbook“
While Portman swept in 2010, Lawrence was the real new star on the block for her debut nomination in “Winter’s Bone.” Two years later, between that early breakthrough and her blockbuster lead debut in “The Hunger Games,“ all the stars were aligned for Lawrence to make history in her Oscar return for “Silver Linings Playbook“ – to the point where she was the youngest winner in decades and the second youngest ever behind Marlee Matlin. Even once Emmanuelle Riva surged as the oldest Best Actress nominee in history for “Amour,“ it wasn’t enough to knock Lawrence off.
That kind of perfect storm hasn’t really been matched since and can’t be matched by Madison, either. Despite her own past experience in shows like “Better Things“ and films like “Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood“ and “Scream,“ those were hits where she wasn’t the lead and never personally made the radar in awards season. “Silver Linings Playbook“ was Lawrence’s first lead role that blended both comedy and drama, much like “Anora“ is for Madison, although it is also Madison’s first leading role in general.
Lawrence was also guided by another director who made cult indie hits for years before breaking through with the Academy, in this case, David O. Russell. “Silver Linings Playbook“ was also an across-the-board Oscar nominee in all the major categories it was up for, although Lawrence was ultimately its only nominee who was win competitive.
That isn’t the case for “Anora“ and Madison, if only because it is a heavier favorite for Best Original Screenplay. As such, if it starts struggling more once industry voting starts, a Screenplay Oscar could be deemed the best way to give it a collective victory, just as Lawrence was for “Silver Linings Playbook.“ With that and without a past nomination under her belt like Lawrence had, Madison may need more help and more wins in other major categories from her own film to seal the deal.
Brie Larson – “Room”
Larson’s case might be the closest that matches Madison, if only by default. She wasn’t a past nominee before she won the Oscar and had worked for years as a supporting actress, but she only had one noteworthy leading role for “Short Term 12” before she made a bigger impact with “Room.“ Once she did, she cruised for much of the season, beating out Lawrence, Cate Blanchett, Charlotte Rampling, and Saoirse Ronan without a lot of trouble.
“Room” wasn’t a Best Picture favorite and only had three other nominations besides Larson’s for Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Adapted Screenplay. “Anora“ likely won’t have that many more nominations even on its best day, although that probably won’t get in the way of its Best Picture hopes. Like Lawrence, Larson had an easier path to victory in part because she had the best chance to honor her movie collectively, whereas Madison may not have that personal advantage with “Anora.”
Larson had a more modestly known director, Lenny Abrahamson, guiding her instead of a flashier name like Russell, Aronofsky, or Baker. “Room“ was also a much heavier movie with a much heavier story and performance at the center than “Black Swan,” “Silver Linings Playbook,“ and “Anora,“ as those movies made critics and audiences laugh and cry while “Room“ mainly just made them cry.
Regardless, no one was strong enough to challenge Larson – not veterans Blanchett and Rampling, not Lawrence in her last of four nominations over six years, and not Ronan in the first of her three nominations over five years. Unless the competition picks up over the next month, Madison may have a similarly clear path, if not for a similar performance and movie.
Emma Stone – “La La Land“
Like Lawrence in 2012, Stone won Best Actress two years after getting her first Oscar nomination. Unlike Lawrence, Portman, and Larson, Stone won her Oscar for a movie that looked like a Best Picture-winning juggernaut all the way up to the final infamous envelope opening.
This youth trend of Best Actress winners also happened during another notable trend, where no Best Actress winners were matching up with Best Picture. This was in the middle of a 16-year drought where Stone was the closest Best Actress winner to also have a Best Picture winner, yet “La La Land” couldn’t get the very last mile of the way. Now, eight years later, “Anora“ hopes to go that last mile as another bright, bubbly, tragically romantic yet much more graphic and much less musical Best Picture frontrunner, with a potential Best Actress winner.
Madison doesn’t have Stone’s past track record with the Academy, much like she doesn’t have Portman’s and Lawrence’s at the time of their wins. Her overall resume before her likely first nomination is closer to Larson’s, yet Madison has a film with a much higher Oscar ceiling overall. Compared to what Lawrence, Stone, Larson, and Stone did before their wins, Madison is a far fresher face, even if she isn’t younger than all of them were when they won.
If this was happening for Madison at any time between 2010 and 2016, the prospect of such a newcomer winning Best Actress would be predictable, if not downright expected by then. But this season is happening in a time where winners as young as Madison haven’t broken through in a while – and as such, she may need all the help she can get from “Anora“and from a field without a clear top alternative yet.
Should that happen for her, whether “Anora“ rides her coattails to a Best Picture win or not, a Madison Best Actress victory would truly be something new in this era – while harkening back to a very slightly past era, too.
Have you seen “Anora” yet? If so, what did you think of it? Do you think Mikey Madison is the frontrunner for Best Actress at the Oscars? Please let us know in the comments below or on Next Best Picture’s X account, and be sure to check out Next Best Picture’s latest Oscar predictions here.
You can follow Robert and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars & Film on X @Robertdoc1984
