More than a few movies were big winners and losers when they played at Venice, Telluride, and Toronto these last couple of weeks. But a potential big winner of the fall film festival season may be one that didn’t play at all. Now that the festivals are finished, “Dune: Part Three” looms larger than ever as maybe the one film left that can drastically change everything.
Thanks to TIFF, “La Bola Negra” cemented itself as the biggest challenger to “The Odyssey.” But also thanks to TIFF, the likes of “Wild Horse Nine” and “The Debut” didn’t get the wins and momentum needed to make Best Picture look like a three or four-film race. As a result, “Dune: Part Three” is the biggest unseen film left with a chance to keep “The Odyssey” and “La Bola Negra” from breaking away completely.
“Dune: Part Three” also got what might turn out to be a huge gift after the festivals, as fellow Warner Bros. film “Digger” met with its first round of mixed reactions. If they don’t turn around after its wide release on October 2, and if the box office doesn’t bail it out, Warner Bros may only have “Dune: Part Three” left to make a run at Best Picture. At the very least, without a drastic rally, “Digger” will be too busy fighting to get into the Best Picture field to have any hope of winning it, much like most films that have already gone through the festival circuit.
There are still a few potential contenders left that can break into the race, particularly at the New York Film Festival where “Behemoth!” will premiere on October 2, and “Artificial” will be unveiled on October 5. Yet while one or both of those films could get the kind of raves that make them a surefire Best Picture nominee, it is hard to imagine either of them getting the kind of reactions that can put them on “The Odyssey” or “La Bola Negra’s” level. “Behemoth!” would have to significantly dwarf the reviews and Oscar buzz of fellow Searchlight contender “Wild Horse Nine” to leap over it, while “Artificial” would probably have to get reviews and comparisons on par with “The Social Network” to be a win-competitive kind of movie – a job which even “The Social Network” couldn’t complete.
Barring some massive shift – a big surprise from other films like “The Social Reckoning,” “Wildwood,” or “You Can See Everything,” or a major upswing from something that has already played at festivals – everything is pointing to a “La Bola Negra” vs “The Odyssey” battle for the rest of the season. But Venice, Toronto, and Telluride did such a good job clearing the way for those two, they also cleared the way for “Dune: Part Three” to be the biggest threat left, if partly by default.
Given how the first “Dune” opened at Venice and how “Dune: Part Two” would have as well if not for the strikes, “Dune: Part Three” skipping a sneak peek at Venice and every other festival looked concerning. However, by staying out of the way up to this point while every festival film except “La Bola Negra” missed a chance to become a Best Picture co-leader, “Dune: Part Three” has built itself up as the last potential frontrunner left. As such, by the time it’s finally previewed sometime in late November or early December, pundits and fans might already be tired of “The Odyssey” and “La Bola Negra” being numbers 1-2 and wind up starving for something else to join them.
Ever since “Dune: Part Three” was set for a December 18 wide release, comparisons to “The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King” – a trilogy-ending epic that was one of the last late December premieres to win Best Picture – have been eagerly made. In its case, “Dune: Part Three” doesn’t need to win 11 Oscars to do the job, but it does need help in some areas, which the festivals already gave it in a few ways.
To win Best Picture, “Dune: Part Three” has to win and first get into other major categories like Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay, and maybe an acting category. Of course, Denis Villeneuve’s inability to get into Best Director for the last two movies has been long under the microscope, but in theory, the door is still open for him now. Among those directors who have been seen already, Christopher Nolan, Los Javis, Martin McDonagh, and Olivia Wilde seem to be the consensus Best Director top four after the festivals, with Tony Gilroy, Luca Guadagnino, Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Lee Chang-dong, Cristian Mungiu, and Jesse Eisenberg rather far back and all crammed together for the last spot – a group that Villeneuve can easily breeze past, unless someone like Gilroy or Guadagnino makes a massive splash at NYFF.
Best Adapted Screenplay is also the exact same as it has been for months, with “The Odyssey,” “La Bola Negra,” “The Invite,” and “Project Hail Mary” a consensus top four, “All of a Sudden” a placeholder No. 5 for the moment, unseen sequels like “The Social Reckoning” and “The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth” waiting to try and get their past contenders back in, and “Dune: Part Three” in the winds to possibly blow past them all with big enough coattails. As for acting categories, “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” didn’t need a nominee, so it is possible “Dune: Part Three” doesn’t need one either. But if the final spots in Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Supporting Actress are still relatively in flux by December, perhaps a very recent twice-over nominee like Timothée Chalamet or someone with an already-massive year like Zendaya or Robert Pattinson could get some extra consideration.
By December, maybe a few of these fields will be too crowded, no matter how “Dune: Part Three” opens. And by December, maybe a few other things will cast a shadow as well, like how “Dune: Part Three” is now on track to be co-owned by Paramount once it opens. By the time January and February roll around, will the state of Hollywood and/or the country at large be in such disorder that voting for a now Warner Bros./Paramount film like “Dune: Part Three” looks way too toxic by then, or will it be seen as a vote to honor the last purely Warner Bros.-made film and a final farewell to an era gone by, as if last year’s votes for “One Battle After Another,” “Sinners,” and “Weapons” weren’t already?
Over these last few weeks, “Dune: Part Three” has benefited from standing still, letting others beat each other up at the festivals, and looking more and more like the last film left that can break into the Best Picture top two or three. But since it will likely be standing still for two more months at least, will the race just keep getting further open for it, or will its window start closing again before it can finally show itself?
Barring something gigantic from “Behemoth!,” “Artificial,” something else at NYFF, or elsewhere entirely, Best Picture will soon be frozen into a two-month holding pattern with “The Odyssey” and “La Bola Negra” as the undisputed No. 1 and No. 2 – and with no challengers in wait but “Dune: Part Three” to break up that order. In that context, “Dune: Part Three” has gotten exactly the breaks it’s needed so far, all without having a single screening. Yet as favorable as the field has now become, and as much as “Dune: Part Three” may have fans rooting for it to shake up the race, is this new bullseye and open opportunity something it can actually handle in December – let alone February and March?
Do you think “Dune: Part Three” has a chance to shake up the Best Picture race? What films do you think benefitted the most from their fall festival run? Please let us know in the comments section below and on Next Best Picture’s X account, and check out Next Best Picture’s latest Oscar predictions here.
