The film industry has long bemoaned Netflix for largely forgoing exclusive theatrical releases of its biggest films. For instance, the first “Knives Out” film grossed over $300 million worldwide, while the Netflix-bound sequels grossed a little over $16 million combined as a result of their brief, limited theatrical release. Even with a cultural phenomenon like “KPop Demon Hunters,” Netflix only gave the film two “theatrical releases” that lasted between 2 and 3 days.
While the coldness towards Netflix is not the only reason their presumed Best Picture runner-ups like “Roma,” “The Power of the Dog,” and “All Quiet on the Western Front” failed to win the Academy’s top prize, it is nonetheless a major factor. Many voters refuse to vote for Netflix films because they do not want to fully legitimize Netflix in the awards sphere with the biggest film award the industry has to offer. Film is a medium that most industry members maintain is best experienced in the theater, and Netflix’s release practices are in direct opposition to this widely held belief. Not even Oscar-winning filmmakers like Guillermo del Toro or Martin Scorsese could push the streamer to give their films the wide, extended theatrical release they fully wanted and deserved.
But for “La Bola Negra,” the sprawling Cannes award-winning epic from filmmaking duo Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi, Netflix has allowed a 47-day exclusive theatrical window: the largest exclusive window for a Netflix title ever. It’s by quite some margin, too, as the previous record holder was Noah Baumbach’s “Marriage Story” with a 30-day exclusive theatrical window in 2019. Netflix breaking tradition to this degree, and for a film that lacks name recognition save for Penélope Cruz and Glenn Close in supporting roles, indicates a new level of commitment to “La Bola Negra.” It demonstrates Netflix’s commitment to screening the film to as many people as possible in the very same format that enabled Cannes audiences to fawn over this film to such a degree that it went on to win the festival’s Best Director prize.
Even in a year with a juggernaut critically, financially and sure to be awards contender like “The Odyssey,” “La Bola Negra” is Netflix’s best chance yet at finally winning Best Picture. It is an emotional film that feels legitimately timeless because of how sweeping and grand its achievement is on such a limited budget. The sheer artistry on-screen is only overpowered by the beating heart at its center. And regardless of what Oscars it ultimately wins, it should at the very least secure itself as an essential part of the pantheon of queer cinema. Best of all, unlike Netflix’s previous Best Picture contenders, it has a heartfelt underdog quality to it. It is not starting off as the frontrunner only to lose steam to a more accessible contender like “Roma” did to “Green Book” or “The Power of the Dog” to “CODA.” You would be pressed to find a film that tugs at your heartstrings as successfully as “La Bola Negra” does this year, or any year really. Netflix knows exactly what kind of film it has on their hands this awards season, and this decision to extend the theatrical run from the previously announced 28 days shows that it is willing to go the extra mile to secure a Best Picture win finally.
Now, the road ahead will be difficult for “La Bola Negra.” It is hard to make the case for “The Odyssey” losing Best Picture, especially when Christopher Nolan’s latest will likely outperform “La Bola Negra” on every metric. It will certainly make more money at the box office, it currently has stronger critical reception, its audience scores will be tough to beat for any film this year, it has the advantage at every American awards voting body as an English-language film, and the pedigree behind it is just too overwhelming to ignore. But predicting the Oscars is not solely about ticking boxes and crunching numbers, even if it can feel that way by the time precursors start rolling around. Before these films are tested on the awards circuit, passion, emotional resonance, and timeliness are three qualities that cannot be ignored. “The Odyssey” should be strong in those departments too, but there is a je ne sais quoi about “La Bola Negra” that makes it feel like the film of the moment. This is a fundamentally subjective assessment, but there is nothing objective about voting for your favorite films of the year. If Netflix can navigate this awards campaign for “La Bola Negra” carefully, it just might be able to eke out a victory here.
Who do you think? Which film do you currently have in the frontrunner spot for Best Picture? Are you excited to see “La Bola Negra?” Please let us know in the comments section below and on Next Best Picture’s X account, and check out Next Best Picture’s latest Oscar predictions here.
