Ever since “Marty Supreme” premiered to a rapturous reception as the surprise screening at NYFF, the chatter around the Best Actor race has consolidated around one name: Timothée Chalamet. As Marty Mauser, Chalamet is a tour de force and gives what is nearly universally agreed to be the actor’s best performance yet, no small feat considering he has the Oscar-nominated “Call Me By Your Name” and “A Complete Unknown” under his belt. Many are wondering whether he could sweep this Oscar season, as a consensus is forming that it is Chalamet’s time to win Best Actor. It is a performance that draws on so many of the qualities we love about him and redefines them through a character who is often irritating but always irresistible.
He is backed by a brilliant campaign so far, as “Marty Supreme” is the film on everyone’s lips. From the orange blimps spotted across the Los Angeles skyline to the highly coveted jackets to Chalamet’s own appearances, where he pokes fun at the trope of the out-of-touch, awards-hungry celebrity while conveying genuine passion for this film and the people who made it possible, the press run has been sensational. Honestly, could anything stop Chalamet from finally winning Oscar gold and taking one step closer to cementing himself as one of the greats? Through no fault of his own, the answer is yes.
The Academy is known for being hesitant to award younger actors. It’s just a simple fact. The only person to win Best Actor under the age of 30 is Adrien Brody, who won his first Best Actor Oscar for “The Pianist” at the age of 29. And although he was not widely predicted to win until 2015’s “The Revenant,” Leonardo DiCaprio was infamously considered an actor who consistently delivered great performances for many years but repeatedly lost to older, more respected actors. I will return to DiCaprio later, but could Chalamet suffer a similar fate as his fellow contender this season?
It may not help that Chalamet’s performance is not a typical Oscar frontrunner or that “Marty Supreme,” as a film, is a typical Academy movie. While it is looking increasingly likely that the film will be an upper-tier Oscar contender, if you are not on Josh Safdie’s singular wavelength, it may be hard to come away eager to vote for Chalamet. Marty Mauser is a complex character to root for, and the film demands you be willing to go off the deep end with him. This is where a far more likable, empathetic performance from a veteran who has never won an Oscar could steal Chalamet’s thunder.
Ethan Hawke is perhaps one of the most beloved actors working today without an Oscar to his name. In Richard Linklater’s “Blue Moon,” he plays the brilliant but complicated lyricist Lorenz Hart, haunted by his lack of success in an industry that seems to be rapidly outpacing him. It is easy to see how that sentiment could resonate with a voting body made up entirely of actors, directors, screenwriters, and other artists who surely struggled with their own career prospects at some point. It may be tempting to dismiss him as a threat because of how small his film is, but that would be underestimating the juggernaut campaigner that is Sony Pictures Classics, the behemoth responsible for shock acting nominations like Penélope Cruz in “Parallel Mothers” and shock wins like Anthony Hopkins in “The Father.” The narrative of finally recognizing Hawke for a transformative performance as a man who never received the recognition he so desperately sought should be compelling.
However, there is a significant obstacle facing both Chalamet and Hawke’s Oscar campaigns. Remember Leonardo DiCaprio? The argument for his Oscar is not built on a sentimental narrative. It is rooted in the fact that he is the lead of this year’s undisputed Best Picture frontrunner. The Best Actor and Actress prizes notoriously favor performers from strong Best Picture contenders, with many of the decade’s tight races ultimately going to the performer in the stronger film (see last year, with Mikey Madison winning Best Actress over Demi Moore). The sheer love for Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” is unprecedented, with many calling it their favorite film of the year. Should it retain that passion and become the Oscar sweeper it is expected to be, DiCaprio could certainly come along for the ride and win his second Academy Award.
Though the film’s ensemble is stacked with standout performances, including Sean Penn, Teyana Taylor, and Chase Infiniti, DiCaprio shows a new side of himself as a performer. There is no trace of the movie-star charisma or effortless magnetism we expect. Bob Ferguson is a weed-smoking, bumbling father and washed-up revolutionary, and DiCaprio abandons all pretense to embody him. His best moments stem from his hilarious incompetence and his desperate striving on behalf of the people he cares about. Should DiCaprio start picking up major prizes like the Globe, Actor, or BAFTA, Chalamet would be in an unfavorable position, considering how most performances fare when going up against leads from the top Best Picture contender.
I would be remiss not to mention Michael B. Jordan, Wagner Moura, and Jesse Plemons, all of whom are very likely Best Actor nominees. However, I struggle to see any of them making a strong case for the win (as of today). Jordan leads “Sinners” wonderfully, but he is overshadowed by the film’s flashier supporting performances from Wunmi Mosaku, Miles Canton, and Delroy Lindo, none of whom are guaranteed to be nominated. Plemons has the extensive filmography expected of a future Oscar winner, but while he is delightfully unhinged in “Bugonia,” it is hard to imagine such an unsettling performance from a lower-tier Best Picture contender winning. And then there is Moura in “The Secret Agent.” The Brazilian actor is well-positioned to win the Golden Globe for Drama Actor, and possibly more if the film continues to gain momentum through NEON’s strategic campaign. Still, his performance is restrained in a way Oscar winners in this category rarely are. Should “The Secret Agent” make it into Best Picture, he might stand a better chance, but for now, I view him as a secure nominee and nothing more.
Ultimately, I still believe the Best Actor Oscar is Timothée Chalamet’s to lose. So far, his campaign is doing everything correctly (though some may argue it’s too Gen Z-coded and that he needs to appeal more to the Academy’s older guard), and the performance is undeniable in its own way. There is a growing sense that it this is Chalamet’s time, after leading beloved independent films and blockbusters for the last decade, and there’s no better performance to prove it than this one as a young, selfish, wholly determined boy who is driven toward greatness and eventually becomes a man in the process of that pursuit, something that voters may see as a meta-narrative for Chalamet as a whole in his quest to be taken seriously as one of the greats in this industry. I expect him to sweep the televised awards, winning the Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice, Actor Awards, and the BAFTA, and he absolutely deserves to. But as we have all learned from years of predicting the Oscars, no race is over until that name is read from the envelope. Should Chalamet lose any of these to any of the other mentioned actors, he will be vulnerable and, like DiCaprio, will they make him wait till he’s in his forties? Like Mauser, “that thought doesn’t even enter my consciousness.”
Do you think Timothée Chalamet will win the Oscar for Best Actor for his performance in “Marty Supreme?” If not, who is his greatest challenger? What is their path to a victory? Please let us know in the comments section below and on Next Best Picture’s X account and check out the team’s latest Oscar predictions here.
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