A few weeks ago, Sean Penn seemed like the obvious Best Supporting Actor frontrunner for his comically villainous turn in “One Battle After Another.” Paul Thomas Anderson’s newest film is already the clear choice for this year’s Oscar winner for Best Picture, with the strongest critical and audience scores of the year. Nearly every awards body thus far has jumped at the chance to give it their top prize, and it seems unlikely this trend will stop. And if “One Battle After Another” is this much of an awards juggernaut, why wouldn’t Penn win when so much of the film hinges on his vile line deliveries and twisted facial expressions that often consume the entire screen? The two-time Oscar winner was widely lauded as the standout of the film, though sometimes begrudgingly, given the actor’s controversial reputation. At the end of the day, he is an Oscar-winning actor giving a pivotal, scene-stealing performance in the Best Picture frontrunner. You would be foolish to doubt his chances of winning the Oscar.
However, another Oscar-winning actor is giving a pivotal, scene-stealing performance in the Best Picture frontrunner: Benicio del Toro. The difference is that both his character and his public persona are far more likable than Penn’s, and we’re seeing that reflected in this phase of the Oscar race. Sensei is one of 2025’s great film characters and has no shortage of quotable lines in “One Battle After Another.” He oozes cool, unflappable resistance against the government’s dehumanization of undocumented immigrants, so it is no wonder that his character feels so essential during these horrifying times where the threat of ICE looms large under President Trump. He may not have as much screen time as Colonel Steven Lockjaw, but he leaves just as much of an impact. So far, del Toro seems to have leapfrogged Penn in the awards race, nabbing NBR, NYFCC, and, so far, the majority of regional critics’ wins over his co-star. While the actual correlation of these individual awards to Oscar wins is shaky, it is nonetheless indicative of the actor’s momentum. They put him in a good position for the win at the Critics’ Choice Awards (CCA); however, he is beginning to be perceived as the true frontrunner in this category. If del Toro wins that and the Golden Globe in January, I sense a sweep of the televised awards in his future.
But if anyone can stop an impending sweep, it is Stellan Skarsgård for his subtle but powerful performance as an absentee father trying to reconnect with his daughters in Joachim Trier’s “Sentimental Value.” Skarsgård is intimidating and larger-than-life as this esteemed film director, carrying both pathos and restraint in a character that leaves the audience as conflicted as his children. As a prolific actor who has never won an Oscar, narrative is on his side here. “One Battle After Another” may be the massive Oscar frontrunner, but Skarsgård could theoretically take advantage of a vote split between Penn and Del Toro and go all the way to an Oscar win. And it is not like “Sentimental Value” is not a strong contender in its own right. Though it may not be win-competitive in Best Picture, it is definitely in the Best International Feature Film and Original Screenplay conversations. I would expect international voters to go harder for “Sentimental Value” than Americans do, so if there is a split between BAFTA and the other awards, I think Skarsgård would be able to capitalize on it.
Paul Mescal is heartbreaking in “Hamnet,” and you could also make a case for him winning the BAFTA, considering how well his film should play with that voting body. His co-star, Jessie Buckley, is currently heavily favored to sweep Best Actress, but considering his raves, could he also nab a televised win or two? He is devastating in a way entirely different from Buckley, with his best moments actually showcasing the interiority of his grief, but he gives a spellbinding performance nonetheless. However, among the top four supporting actors, Mescal is the only one who has not won any critics’ prizes. Winning critics’ awards is not the end-all, be-all for an awards campaign, but it could be an early indicator that this is not a performance that generates enough passion for an outright win. Nonetheless, Mescal should have no trouble getting nominations at every precursor, and I feel strongly about his Oscar nomination chances.
Interestingly, the two actors duking it out for the final slot here both hail from Netflix films that premiered at the Venice Film Festival to mixed reviews, only to surge as contenders later. While Adam Sandler and Jacob Elordi may not be in contention for an outright win for “Jay Kelly” and “Frankenstein,” respectively, given how strong the top four appear, they both make a strong case for Oscar nominations. They each have CCA and Golden Globe nominations and are hailed as the standouts of their films. While Elordi gives a transformational performance in a surefire Best Picture nominee, Sandler has the more compelling narrative as a highly well-regarded actor who has never been Oscar-nominated. SAG could be the ultimate test; with only five slots, one of the top six contenders must be dropped here. But then again, Netflix contenders tend to perform well here, so Skarsgård or Mescal could potentially miss in favor of both Sandler and Elordi. If it is down to BAFTA, Elordi probably has the edge as a previous BAFTA nominee for “Saltburn.” Ultimately, I do lean towards Elordi landing the final spot in the category since “Frankenstein” has been vastly outperforming “Jay Kelly” lately across the board. Both have compelling reasons to get nominated, though, and I would not be surprised if either name is announced the morning of Oscar nominations. If both are announced, that is an entirely different story, but I will believe it when I see it.
And then there’s Berlinale winner Andrew Scott for “Blue Moon” and veteran actor Delroy Lindo for “Sinners.” Should either one of them land nominations at SAG and/or BAFTA, expect this already competitive category to get even more thrown into chaos.
So who do you think will be Oscar-nominated for Best Supporting Actor this year? Do you think it’s five of the names we mentioned or is there someone else you think is also in contention? Please let us know in the comments section below and on Next Best Picture’s X account, click here here for the most recent tally of awards season winners, here for Next Best Picture’s precursor tracker, and here for their current Oscar predictions.
You can follow Amy and hear more of her thoughts on the Oscars & Film on X @AmyHayneKim
