Between the Critics’ Choice Awards earlier this week and the Golden Globes on January 11th, a series of massive revelations will shape the next stage of Oscar season. In this one week, the SAG nominations are tomorrow, the DGA nominations on January 8th, and the BAFTA longlists and PGA nominations on January 9th could make or break many hopes for Oscar nominations and even wins for every film still in the race.
As such, this is what every film needs to have happen the most this coming week, if they still want Oscar nomination morning and beyond to be an even bigger win for them.
“One Battle After Another” – Chase Infiniti SAG & BAFTA Longlist Nomination
“One Battle After Another” pretty much has everything it could ask for, in terms of nominations, if not wins. In truth, the one question mark it has left is Infiniti, and it technically doesn’t need her to get nominated for Best Actress at all. But considering the gamble it took in elevating her out of the Supporting category, having this one actual risk pay off could be a sign of just how much the Academy is willing to honor it, in every possible way.
With more experienced past nominees and winners like Emma Stone, Amanda Seyfried, and Jennifer Lawrence still on the bubble, Infiniti beating at least one of them out would show just how long “One Battle After Another’s” coattails really are. But if she doesn’t squeeze one of them out at SAG or can’t even get on the BAFTA longlist of 10, maybe it will prove that even “One Battle After Another” can’t have everything handed over to it this season after all – and its competitors will take any little crack in its armor that they can find.
“Sinners” – Ryan Coogler, DGA & BAFTA longlist Nomination, Any Acting Nominations At SAG & BAFTA
“Sinners” has to work twice as hard to get even halfway close to knocking off “One Battle After Another.” To do that, it has to prove just how broad its support really is – among SAG voters whose support it needs to get at least one acting nomination, and especially among international voters who have lately ignored Black-led/made movies. What’s more, it needs Ryan Coogler to prove he isn’t the next director to be ultimately snubbed by the blockbuster establishment, like Greta Gerwig and Denis Villeneuve.
Maybe getting into DGA and the BAFTA longlist still won’t lock Coogler in, considering the Academy director branch’s various biases – yet missing one of them will definitely cause red flags to wave. In addition, though Michael B. Jordan actually led the Best Actor field with the most precursor wins for a while, all it will take is missing SAG and/or missing with notoriously snobby BAFTA voters to erase all that progress. And if Jordan’s case is still that fragile, Wunmi Mosaku and Delroy Lindo missing SAG and/or BAFTA after missing the Golden Globes could finish them off entirely.
“Sinners” needs across the board still pose a threat to “One Battle After Another.” That means it can’t be in greater danger of missing anywhere after this week, even if making it everywhere still won’t be enough for Coogler, Jordan, Mosaku, and Lindo to be deemed absolutely safe. But even that lingering doubt in such a scenario is far better than the alternative.
“Hamnet” – Chloe Zhao DGA & BAFTA Longlist Nomination, Paul Mescal SAG & BAFTA Longlist Nomination
“Hamnet” seems relatively secure, even if it isn’t being talked about as much to win it all anymore. But to keep those hopes alive, Zhao needs to secure her second Best Director nomination, which isn’t yet a sure thing. Even if the DGA and BAFTA do finish locking her in, it also needs to prove that Mescal’s once-seemingly-locked nomination is still secure.
If “Hamnet” doesn’t get both of its stars in, it will be a notable blow to any hopes of wins beyond Best Actress. But in a Best Supporting Actor bubble with Jacob Elordi, Adam Sandler, and Lindo at minimum, Mescal still has some work left to do. BAFTA should presumably be safe for him, yet a miss at SAG could raise too much doubt for comfort.
“Marty Supreme” – Josh Safdie, DGA & BAFTA Longlist Nomination, Any SAG & BAFTA Acting Nominations Besides Timothee Chalamet
When Chalamet had a runaway Christmas/late awards season hit last year, “A Complete Unknown” began to overperform beyond him, with James Magnold’s DGA nomination and Monica Barbaro’s SAG nomination repeating at the Oscars. Now, if “Marty Supreme” is peaking at the right/same time a year later, Safdie and either Odessa A’zion or Gwyneth Paltrow will do the same thing.
Mangold and Barbaro didn’t make the BAFTA longlists, so the “Marty Supreme” bubble contenders don’t necessarily need to do so either. Yet if history doesn’t repeat itself at SAG and the DGA, then maybe “Marty Supreme” really isn’t catching on as fast with awards voters as it is with general audiences.
“Frankenstein” – Guillermo Del Toro DGA & BAFTA Longlist Nomination, Jacob Elordi SAG & BAFTA Longlist Nomination, Best Adapted Screenplay BAFTA Longlist Nomination
“Frankenstein” has been presumed safe for a while, but it has also been a little quiet for a while. Tying for the most wins at the Critics’ Choice did prove it hasn’t fully peaked yet, though it can still make its resurgence even bigger this week – namely by getting Del Toro and Elordi off their respective bubbles, and by taking its last shot before the Oscars to prove its Screenplay can squeeze in too.
Del Toro has long been an assumed lock for the DGA at least, so missing it would be a stunning blow. And although Elordi has racked up precursor nominations alongside the Best Supporting Actor favorites all season, he wasn’t winning nearly as much as them and looked to be the most at-risk in the presumed top four – until the Critics’ Choice gave him the first big win of the season anyway. Now, as long as SAG or BAFTA don’t throw another curveball by snubbing him, he and “Frankenstein” can prove they are powerful enough to do more than just get into Best Picture.
“Sentimental Value” – Best Director BAFTA Longlist Nomination, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas & Elle Fanning SAG & BAFTA Longlist Nominations
“Sentimental Value” is locked enough for Best Picture, Best Actress, and Best Supporting Actor nominations that even underperforming at SAG shouldn’t be too damaging – as “The Brutalist” missed everything but an Adrien Brody nomination at SAG and still got two other actors in. And while Joachim Trier could use a DGA nomination, missing it wouldn’t be nearly as surprising or costly as missing a BAFTA longlist mention.
Nonetheless, “Sentimental Value” still needs to secure at least one Best Supporting Actress nomination, if not two. Having either Lilleaas or Fanning make SAG, if not both of them, would be very helpful in that regard, and so would both of them making a longlist of 10 at BAFTA. If there’s only room for one in both, then that changes things considerably.
“It Was Just an Accident” – PGA Nomination, Best Director BAFTA Longlist Nomination
“It Was Just an Accident” is the last of seven presumed Best Picture locks, so making the PGA field along with those other six should eliminate any doubt – or create a surge if it misses. Yet for now, the biggest question mark it has isn’t for Best Picture, but for whether Jafar Panahi will be nominated for Best Director along with Best Original Screenplay.
Missing the DGA might not break his candidacy for Best Director, but missing a BAFTA longlist – especially if one or a few other NEON international directors make it – could shake up, if not pop the bubble for him.
“Train Dreams” – PGA Nomination, Joel Edgerton SAG & BAFTA Longlist Nomination, Best Adapted Screenplay BAFTA Longlist Nomination
“Train Dreams” made every nomination it could when the season first started, until it narrowly missed the Golden Globe Best Drama field. Now that the season has gone deeper and flashier contenders have made their moves, this quieter and more artsy Netflix film needs a flashy statement of its own by making the all-important PGA field, and by keeping itself alive for other major nominations.
Edgerton making SAG might be too much to ask against bigger and louder names, yet a BAFTA longlist mention might at least keep him viable. If he can’t hold on, “Train Dreams” really needs to keep a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination in play, though it needs to make the BAFTA longlist to keep that dream viable.
“The Secret Agent” – PGA Nomination, Wagner Moura SAG Nomination, Best Original Screenplay BAFTA Longlist Nomination
It might still be hard to imagine NEON getting three international films into Best Picture, but it could go a very long way if the PGA did it first. Though if “The Secret Agent” is Brazil’s next surprise Best Picture nominee in the vein of “I’m Still Here,” that film didn’t need a PGA nomination either – yet getting one here would make things easier. “I’m Still Here” also didn’t start winning major Best International Film prizes until very late, but “The Secret Agent” winning them at Critics Choice and National Society this past weekend might be a valuable signal to voters elsewhere.
Having Moura as a potential Best Actor nominee is the film’s other major asset, so he should have no problem getting into the BAFTA longlist. Yet getting into SAG as well would eliminate any doubt, even though “I’m Still Here’s” Fernanda Torres didn’t need a SAG mention either. The only other way the film can boost its case would be to finally make a move for the last Best Original Screenplay spot, and the BAFTA longlist is likely its last chance.
“No Other Choice” – PGA Nomination, BAFTA Best Picture Longlist Nomination, Lee Byung-hun BAFTA Best Actor Longlist Nomination, BAFTA Best Adapted Screenplay Longlist Nomination
If there is room for a third or even fourth NEON Best Picture nominee, “No Other Choice” has the most work to do to force itself in. Like with “The Secret Agent,” getting into the PGA would be massive but might be too much to ask, so its best chance to stay active in the race may come from BAFTA.
Byung-hun is probably too much of an Oscar longshot for Best Actor, especially with Moura blocking the way, but making the BAFTA longlist would be a needed overall win for the movie. However, its most realistic chance for a major Oscar nomination is in Best Adapted Screenplay, so it must make the BAFTA ten along with its fellow bubble rivals, too.
“Bugonia” – PGA Nomination, Emma Stone SAG & BAFTA Longlist Nomination, Best Adapted Screenplay BAFTA Longlist Nomination
“Bugonia” made some of the biggest moves up the bubble last month, with Critics’ Choice and Golden Globe Best Picture nominations. If it makes the PGA field as well, that could be enough to get it checked into Best Picture, just like Yorgos Lanthimos and Emma Stone’s other Oscar season team-ups. Yet it still needs other support elsewhere.
If Stone is now one of those actresses who gets checked into the Oscars whenever she’s in the running, getting into SAG and the BAFTA longlist should seal the deal and give “Bugonia” a major pillar for its resume. If not, staying on the right side of the Best Adapted Screenplay bubble with a BAFTA mention is even more important.
“Wicked: For Good” – PGA Nomination, SAG Ensemble Nomination, Ariana Grande SAG & BAFTA Longlist Nomination
Those disappointed or worse by “Wicked: For Good” received a lifeline when it missed the Golden Globe Picture cut, and are now hoping a miss in PGA will finish melting it away. Missing SAG Ensemble could also have the same effect, as that too was a field “Wicked” had no trouble getting into last year, and is now much more fraught for its sequel.
If worst comes to worst, keeping Grande’s initially secure Best Supporting Actress nomination alive is a must. It might be too late for Cynthia Erivo, even if SAG could still revive her chances, yet Grande missing SAG and/or the BAFTA longlist could be the end of the line for more than just her.
“Jay Kelly” – PGA Nomination, SAG Ensemble Nomination, George Clooney and/or Adam Sandler SAG & BAFTA Longlist Nomination, Best Original Screenplay BAFTA Longlist Nomination
From the very beginning, everyone assumed that actors and Hollywood industry voters would single-handedly put “Jay Kelly” in, critics and non-Hollywood audiences be damned. That theory will either finally be confirmed or laid to rest for good soon, as “Jay Kelly” seeks its big Hollywood bailout from the PGA and SAG.
Missing the Best Casting Oscar longlist would seem deadly for its SAG chances, yet the likes of “The Color Purple,” “Babylon,” and “House of Gucci” got temporary reprieves from SAG Ensemble voters in recent years. To prove that it can still go further, “Jay Kelly” also needs a rebound from Clooney at SAG and BAFTA, and most importantly, needs those groups to keep Sandler on the Best Supporting Actor bubble. Without that or a sign from BAFTA that it can still get the last Best Original Screenplay slot, the industry may be “Jay Kelly’s” doom instead of its only friend after all.
“Avatar: Fire And Ash” – PGA Nomination & BAFTA Longlist Mention
When the third “Avatar” film, unlike the first two, missed Critics’ Choice and Golden Globe nominations, that, along with the worst reviews for the franchise, seemed to kill it then and there. But of course, this was all before another billion dollars came in from the box office as a lifeline.
If “Avatar: Fire and Ash” also misses PGA like its predecessors didn’t, that will be the finishing blow, especially with no other chances to break into any other major groups before the Oscars. But if it does pull off a PGA three-peat for the franchise after all that – especially if “Wicked: For Good” misses and leaves it as the only fall blockbuster sequel left standing – the other films on the bubble and a fair share of critics will have to worry anew about “Avatar” history repeating elsewhere, all the way up to Oscar nomination morning.
“F1: The Movie” – PGA Nomination & BAFTA Longlist Mention
Like other big-screen spectacle blockbusters before it, “F1” has reached the point in the season where technical dominance alone may no longer be enough to carry it into the Best Picture lineup. While its strength in categories like Sound, Editing, and Visual Effects remains undeniable, the film still needs a clear signal of broad industry support to avoid being boxed into a purely below-the-line contender. A PGA nomination would do the most to legitimize its Best Picture hopes, especially as the Producers Guild has increasingly mirrored the Academy’s final lineup when it comes to large-scale studio releases. Likewise, appearing on a few BAFTA longlists would demonstrate that the movie’s appeal extends beyond Hollywood craft branches into the broader, increasingly influential international voting body. If “F1” misses both PGA and BAFTA this week, it may still rack up multiple nominations on Oscar morning, but without at least one of those key validations this week, its chances of landing in the Best Picture field itself could quietly slip away.
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