With this year’s batch of Oscar nominations, we move from the phase of endlessly wondering what will be nominated to the phase of endlessly wondering what will win. The nominations are a better indicator than any precursor could be of where the season is turning, and this year’s batch is no different. While most of what was recognized was predicted, the surprises, good and bad, both point us towards what might ultimately win Oscar night. To best understand where we are in the season, it’s worth diving deep into the nuances of what shifted in this year’s Oscar nominations.
“Sinners” In Best Picture And Best Director
One of the big stories of this year’s nominations is the record-breaking performance of Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners.” The film received virtually every possible nomination it could have, except for a second song or another Best Supporting Actor nomination for Actor nominee Miles Caton. While we’ve seen nearly every year that the number of nominations doesn’t equate to the strongest film, a performance this historically strong feels particularly notable. Every possible branch wanted to recognize Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners,” and perhaps the surprise inclusion of Delroy Lindo and the presumed frontrunner “One Battle After Another” missing a few nominations are tea leaves worth looking into. The film would obviously need to win the PGA to make this rise back to the top come true, but with “Sinners” being the more successful film and a new wave of strength and headlines, the path is becoming all the more clear. The top two Warner Bros. films this year are insanely strong; both films would be dominant in years apart from each other, and their nomination hauls prove they each have cases and paths to the top two prizes for Best Picture and Best Director. Some have suggested there might be a Picture/Director split between these two heavy hitters, but with both the PGA and DGA, and their respective Oscar categories, a split like that doesn’t really happen for auteur-driven films like this; both prizes tend to go to the same film. It seems nearly impossible that “Sinners” would win the PGA without DGA, and therefore wouldn’t win Best Picture without Best Director, but last week proved “Sinners” is as competitive in all four as we head towards the guilds.
“Sentimental Value” In Best International Feature Film
Best International Feature Film has been one of the most chaotic categories to follow this season, particularly due to the devastating collapse of once presumed frontrunner, “It was Just an Accident.” That, along with the groundswell of support for “The Secret Agent” and the continued strength of “Sentimental Value,” has left this category feeling all over the place, but now, it seems to have come into focus. While both of the latter two films are in Best Picture, the major overperformance of “Sentimental Value” at the EFA (European Film Awards), AMPAS, and BAFTA really shows how beloved the film is within the industry. Particularly, the Oscar nomination for Elle Fanning, a performance recognized by neither SAG nor the BAFTA longlist, really highlights the film’s specific strength here. That, along with the surprise Best Film Editing nomination, makes it feel like the Academy is this film’s biggest fans, and it’d be hard at this point to see that stop with its nine Oscar nominations. While “The Secret Agent” won this same category at the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice, both wins felt like pieces of the momentum that the Oscar Best Picture nomination was the final piece for. It is also worth noting that “Sentimental Value” was disqualified from the Critics’ Choice category because it had received a Best Picture nomination there. While “The Secret Agent” did respectable on Oscar nomination morning, it missed Best Original Screenplay (an award it was nominated for at BAFTA) to “Blue Moon,” while “Sentimental Value” got everything it pretty much could (minus Best Casting), the odds seem to now be in the latter’s favor.
“I Lied To You” In Best Original Song
With all the “Sinners” strength and virtually every branch of the Academy wanting to show it their love, it adds an interesting wrinkle to the dominance “Kpop Demon Hunters’” global sensation of an anthem, “Golden,” has shown in the Best Original Song category so far. While winning Critics Choice and Golden Globes is a hard package to overcome, perhaps the film that broke the record for nominations and is nominated for Best Picture is the one to do it. If we do end up in the aforementioned world where “Sinners” is the obvious winner for Best Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay, the notion of its flagship song not coming along for the win would feel wrong. Sure, “Golden” is the bigger hit and in the end, the likelier winner, but “I Lied To You” is the most beloved moment in what might be the most beloved film of the year, so there may be room for an upset to come along with a potential “Sinners” overperformance on Oscar night.
“F1” In Best Film Editing & Best Sound
After its Critics’ Choice wins for Best Editing and Sound, many debated the likelihood of a non-best-picture nominee like “F1” getting nominated, let alone taking home the Oscars in those categories. Then “F1” got nominated for Best Picture. While BAFTA and the guilds could certainly offer alternatives in their respective categories, after winning the AMPS award the other day, it seems “F1” now has the strength and visibility to just repeat those two wins in March. Perhaps it will be treated like a similar racing film, “Ford v Ferrari,” a bottom-five Best Picture contender showy enough in those two techs to win both. Places like BAFTA had no problem giving that film wins, or even other racing films like “Rush,” so there’s no reason to expect them to turn up their noses here. At this point, neither Oscar win would be as surprising as the Best Picture nomination “F1” barely received, and perhaps its growing strength in those two categories is why it ended up in the lineup of ten in the end.
Stellan Skarsgård In Best Supporting Actor
That strength for “Sentimental Value” seems to bode very well for the late momentum Stellan Skarsgård has been building for his supporting performance. While it may seem lazy to say that simply getting an extra actor nominated for the same film boosts another’s chances of winning, we have seen this happen in the past, and it’s rare for a film with four acting nominations to leave the ceremony with zero wins. Now those trends have been broken, and they alone aren’t enough to predict Skarsgård to win, but these facts, including the film’s overall overperformance, are building on his recent Golden Globe win. Missing the Actor nomination was certainly a tough hill to climb, but a potential BAFTA win could be enough to overcome it and win the Oscar. That would mostly depend on who won the Actor Award in his absence, as a “One Battle After Another” actor winning there could carry over to the Oscars, and an Elordi repeat at Critics’ Choice would make the category a 50-50 toss-up. While it’s difficult to call the Actor race with how split the season has been, I think there’s a chance the results there don’t even factor into the Oscar winner at all. When SAG snubbed all four “Sentimental Value” actors, who all received Oscar nominations, can who they choose to win really reflect who the Oscars choose? Obviously, their ultimate winner will be important in the final predictions. Still, given the disparity over this particular film, one has to wonder whether the eventual winner will even matter against Skarsgård’s rising momentum, now following an EFA win. Only time will tell, and these, along with every race discussed here and elsewhere, will all be a joy to follow in the coming weeks.
What did you think of the Oscar nominations? What were the biggest shifts in momentum you felt after their announcement? Please let us know your thoughts on our X account. Click here for more upcoming awards season dates, here for the most recent tally of awards season winners, here for our precursor tracker, and here for our current Oscar predictions.
